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Oxford University Press eBooks

Causal completeness of probability theories — Results and open problems

Miklós Rédei, Balázs Gyenis

Published Mar 17, 2011• 3 citations
Publisher

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to give a review of the known results and open problems concerning causal completeness (closedness) of classical and non-classical (quantum) probability spaces. Causal closedness of a probabilistic theory means that the theory is causally rich enough to be able to explain causally all the correlations it predicts. It is natural to ask whether probabilistic theories are causally closed if one assumes that Reichenbach’s Common Cause Principle holds: this principle states that if two events A and B are probabilistically correlated then either the correlation is due to a causal interaction between A and B, or, if A and B are causally independent, Rind(A,B), then there exists a third event C, a so-called common cause that explains the correlation by being related to A and B probabilistically in a specific way (see Definition 1). Causal closedness of a probabilistic theory is intended to express that the theory complies with the Common Cause Principle; accordingly, and more precisely, a probability theory is defined to be causally closed with respect to a causal independence relation

DOI
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199574131.003.0025

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The aim of this paper is to give a review of the known results and open problems concerning causal completeness (closedness) of classical and non-classical (quantum) probability spaces. Causal closedness of a probabilistic theory means that the theory is causally rich enough to be able to explain causally all the correlations it predicts. It is natural to ask whether probabilistic theories are causally closed if one assumes that Reichenbach’s Common Cause Principle holds: this principle states that if two events A and B are probabilistically correlated then either the correlation is due to a causal interaction between A and B, or, if A and B are causally independent, Rind(A,B), then there exists a third event C, a so-called common cause that explains the correlation by being related to A and B probabilistically in a specific way (see Definition 1). Causal closedness of a probabilistic theory is intended to express that the theory complies with the Common Cause Principle; accordingly, and more precisely, a probability theory is defined to be causally closed with respect to a causal independence relation
Causal closedness and common cause closedness Assuming that Reichenbach's Common Cause Principle is valid, one is led to the question of whether our probabilistic theories predicting probabilistic correlations can be causally rich enough to also contain the causes of all the correlations they predict. The aim of this chapter is to formulate precisely and investigate this question. According to the Common Cause Principle, causal richness of a theory T would manifest in T 's being causally closed (complete) in the sense of being capable of explaining the correlations by containing a common cause of every correlation between causally independent events A, B . This feature of a theory is formulated in the next two definitions of causal closedness. In both definitions ( X, S, p )is a probability space and R ind is a two-place causal independence relation that is assumed to have been defined between elements of S . We treat the relation R ind as a variable in the problem of causal closedness; hence, at this point we leave open what properties R ind should have to be acceptable as a causal independence relation – later we will return to the issue of how to specify it. Definition 4.1 The probability space ( X, S, p ) is called causally closed with respect to R ind , if for every correlation Corr p ( A, B ) > 0 with A ϵ S and B ϵ S such that R ind ( A, B ) holds, there exists a common cause C of some type in S .
In recent years part of the literature on probabilistic causality concerned notions stemming from Reichenbach’s idea of explaining correlations between not directly causally related events by referring to their common causes. A few related notions have been introduced, e.g. that of a “common cause system” (Hofer-Szabó and Rédei in Int J Theor Phys 43(7/8):1819–1826, 2004 ) and “causal (N-)closedness” of probability spaces (Gyenis and Rédei in Found Phys 34(9):1284–1303, 2004 ; Hofer-Szabó and Rédei in Found Phys 36(5):745–756, 2006 ). In this paper we introduce a new and natural notion similar to causal closedness and prove a number of theorems which can be seen as extensions of earlier results from the literature. Most notably we prove that a finite probability space is causally closed in our sense iff its measure is uniform. We also present a generalisation of this result to a class of non-classical probability spaces.
We give a few results concerning the notions of causal completability and causal closedness of classical probability spaces (Hofer-Szabó et al. [1999]; Gyenis and Rédei [2004]). We prove that (i) any classical probability space has a causally closed extension; (ii) any finite classical probability space with positive rational probabilities on the atoms of the event algebra can be extended to a causally up-to-three-closed finite space; and (iii) any classical probability space can be extended to a space in which all correlations between events that are logically independent modulo measure zero event have a countably infinite common-cause system. Collectively, these results show that it is surprisingly easy to find Reichenbach-style ‘explanations' for correlations, underlining doubts as to whether this approach can yield a philosophically relevant account of causality. 1 Introduction2 Basic Definitions and Results in the Literature3 Causal Completability the Easy Way: ‘Splitting the Atom’4 Causal Completability of Classical Probability Spaces: The General Case5 Infinite Statistical Common-Cause Systems for Arbitrary Pairs6 Conclusion Appendix A
Extending the ideas from (Hofer-Szabó and Rédei [2006]), we introduce the notion of causal up-to-n-closedness of probability spaces. A probability space is said to be causally up-to-n-closed with respect to a relation of independence R_ind iff for any pair of correlated events belonging to R_ind the space provides a common cause or a common cause system of size at most n. We prove that a finite classical probability space is causally up-to-3-closed w.r.t. the relation of logical independence iff its probability measure is constant on the set of atoms of non-0 probability. (The latter condition is a weakening of the notion of measure uniformity.) Other independence relations are also considered.
Abstract Reichenbach’s common cause principle (RCCP) is a metaphysical claim about the causal structure of the world. It entails that all correlations can be explained causally either by pointing at the causal connection between the correlated entities or by displaying a common cause of the correlation. We contribute to its mathematical side. Firstly, after adopting the RCCP axioms, we indicate the importance of positive covariance of events in connection with RCCP. In fact, RCCP is meaningful only for positively correlated events. Secondly, we find explicit requirements for a state to have a common cause in a quantum logic. Afterwards, we compare RCCP in the standard (Boolean) case and in the quantum setup that admits new properties of correlation, impossible in the classical case. We show that the notion of maximal correlation differs considerably in these two cases. We answer an open question by providing a counterexample based on a quantum logic given by a free orthomodular lattice. Subsequently, we find a relation between the Darboux property and RCCP. We invent a new technique for obtaining the central result that atomless σ-complete quantum logics are common cause complete. A variety of new examples is presented. Finally, we contribute to a fundamental question whether a common cause incomplete quantum logic can be embedded into one that is common cause complete. We contribute by an advanced construction that allows for a positive answer to this question for quantum logics with finitely many atoms and even for some quantum logics with countably many atoms.
We prove that under some technical assumptions on a general, non-classical probability space, the probability space is extendible into a larger probability space that is common cause closed in the sense of containing a common cause of every correlation between elements in the space. It is argued that the philosophical significance of this common cause completability result is that it allows the defence of the Common Cause principle against certain attempts of falsification. Some open problems concerning possible strengthening of the common cause completability result are formulated.