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arXiv:2610.35498

Fast and accurate rare-event simulation by Markov chain Monte Carlo for general quantum codes

Junichi Haruna, Kotaro Murakami

quant-phSubmitted Oct 26, 2026• Announced Oct 27, 2026• 0 citations
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Abstract

The splitting method estimates logical error rates of quantum error-correcting codes deep in the rare-event regime, where direct Monte Carlo sampling is prohibitively expensive. It relies on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler of faulty configurations, usually driven by one-bit-flip proposals. However, one-bit flips have been reported to be trapped on some codes, which biases the estimate. To address this issue, we propose a new kernel that combines locally balanced one-bit-flip proposals with a cluster-exchange move. We benchmark both kernels and direct Monte Carlo on twelve codes under code-capacity bit-flip noise in two ways, by comparing the mean fault weight with an MCMC-independent reference and by measuring the computation time to reach a fixed accuracy. In the first, our kernel agrees with the reference on every code, including those where one-bit flips are trapped. In the second, it is faster than one-bit flips wherever they are trapped, by orders of magnitude on some codes. Furthermore, at the lowest error rate, it is faster than direct Monte Carlo on every code, by more than four orders of magnitude on some.

Comments
23 pages, 3 figures, 8 tables

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The splitting method estimates logical error rates of quantum error-correcting codes deep in the rare-event regime, where direct Monte Carlo sampling is prohibitively expensive. It relies on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler of faulty configurations, usually driven by one-bit-flip proposals. However, one-bit flips have been reported to be trapped on some codes, which biases the estimate. To address this issue, we propose a new kernel that combines locally balanced one-bit-flip proposals with a cluster-exchange move. We benchmark both kernels and direct Monte Carlo on twelve codes under code-capacity bit-flip noise in two ways, by comparing the mean fault weight with an MCMC-independent reference and by measuring the computation time to reach a fixed accuracy. In the first, our kernel agrees with the reference on every code, including those where one-bit flips are trapped. In the second, it is faster than one-bit flips wherever they are trapped, by orders of magnitude on some codes. Furthermore, at the lowest error rate, it is faster than direct Monte Carlo on every code, by more than four orders of magnitude on some.
One of the central challenges in quantum error correction is determining the performance of a code in the low-error regimes needed to implement utility-scale computations. While performance at these error rates is not amenable to direct Monte Carlo simulation, it can be extrapolated from simulations at higher logical error rates, assuming the logical error rate scales predictably with increasing distance or decreasing physical error rate. However, the expected scaling depends sensitively on the minimum weight of uncorrectable error patterns. In many cases, the minimum weight is unknown since it depends not only on the theoretical code distance, but also on details of the implementation. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, as adapted to quantum error correction by Bravyi and Vargo, provide a way to estimate logical failure rates in these low-error regimes via simulation. While offering significant gains over Monte Carlo, the described Metropolis algorithm makes small changes to the current logical failure patterns which results in slow convergence. In this paper, we argue that typical failure patterns include a large number of easily correctable errors that coexist alongside a malignant core. This observation motivates two new approaches to better evaluate code performance. First, we describe a pruning algorithm designed to obviate these correctable errors and focus on the problematic low-weight core. Second, we develop a novel family of Metropolis-Hastings algorithms, referred to as subregion MCMC. This technique is parameterized by the fraction of the error pattern that is resampled at each step, effectively interpolating between Monte Carlo and single step MCMC. We show that a judicious choice of this parameter results in far faster convergence than prior work.
The ultimate goal of quantum error correction is to create logical qubits with very low error rates (e.g. 1e-12) and assemble them into large-scale quantum computers capable of performing many (e.g. billions) of logical gates on many (e.g. thousands) of logical qubits. However, it is necessarily difficult to directly assess the performance of such high-quality logical qubits using standard Monte Carlo sampling because logical failure events become very rare. Building on existing approaches to this problem, we develop three complementary techniques to characterize the rare-event regime for general quantum low-density parity-check (qLDPC) codes under circuit noise. (I) We propose a well-motivated, low-parameter ansatz for the failure spectrum (the fraction of fault sets of each size that fail) that empirically fits all the QEC systems we studied and predicts logical error rates at all physical error rates. (II) We find min-weight logical operators of syndrome measurement circuits and exactly compute the number of min-weight failing configurations. (III) We generalize the splitting method to qLDPC codes using multi-seeded Metropolis sampling to improve convergence for systems with many inequivalent logical operators. We apply these tools to distance-6, -12, and -18 bivariate bicycle codes under circuit noise, observing strong low-error-rate performance with the recently proposed Relay decoder but also considerable scope for further improvement.
Quantum algorithms present a quadratically improved complexity over classical ones for certain sampling tasks. For instance, the Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE) algorithm promises to speed up the estimation of the mean of certain functions, given access to the quantum state corresponding to the probability distribution to be sampled from. Classically, samples are often obtained by simulating a Markov chain. In this work, we experimentally use encodings of Markov chains to prepare quantum states and run a quantum Markov Chain Monte Carlo (qMCMC) algorithm on Quantinuum System Model H2 and Quantinuum Helios quantum computers. We first demonstrate that it is possible to obtain accurate results by operating directly on the physical qubits. Crucially, to pave the way toward fault-tolerant execution, we also implement these algorithms using logical qubits protected by the Iceberg Quantum Error Detection (QED) code. By applying multiple rounds of mid-circuit QED during a random walk, we successfully catch and filter out hardware errors. These experiments demonstrate the feasibility of qMCMC on quantum hardware, bringing us closer to realizing quadratic quantum speedups with broad applications ranging from molecular modeling to machine learning and finance.
We describe a practical approach for accessing the logical failure rates of quantum error-correcting (QEC) circuits under low physical (component) failure rate regimes. Standard Monte Carlo is often the de facto approach for studying the failure rates of quantum circuits. However, in the study of fault-tolerant error-correcting circuits, the ability to extend this approach to low physical failure rates is limited. In particular, the use of Monte Carlo to access circuits that are relatively large or have high correcting power becomes more difficult as we lower the input failure rates of the individual components (gates) in the circuit. For these reasons, many simulations studying the circuit model go no lower than end-to-end logical failure rates in the 10 − 6 regime.In this report, we outline an approach that borrows from earlier work by Bravyi and Vargo \cite{bv13} to the more complex circuit noise model. Earlier works studied both the capacity and phenomenological noise models \cite{bv13,Beverland2019,bonilla2021xzzx}, but the work is insufficient for generating similar simulations in the circuit-noise model. To the best of our knowledge, our team is the first to develop a full prescription of the rare event simulation by splitting technique for the circuit-based noise model. We have also generated promising results that are confirmed by standard Monte Carlo simulation under an accessible regime. This work shows that we can access noise in the circuit-model prescription of quantum error-correcting code to failure rates below 10 − 20 regime.
Detailed balance underlies conventional Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Yet in classical systems, breaking detailed balance generates irreversible probability currents and can accelerate sampling. Whether irreversibility can similarly enhance quantum MCMC remains an intriguing question. Here we show that irreversibility provides a new route to improving the recent quantum-enhanced MCMC (QEMC), which combines quantum proposals with classical acceptance. By introducing state-dependent proposals that break detailed balance while preserving the target stationary distribution, we develop an irreversible quantum-enhanced Monte Carlo (IQEMC). Guided by Landau-Zener transitions, IQEMC promotes large energy descents from high-energy states while maintaining stable transitions near low-energy states. On spin-glass benchmarks, IQEMC outperforms QEMC without increasing computational complexity and, unlike the annealing baseline, exhibits a spectral gap that increases with system size and annealing speed. These results establish irreversibility as a physically grounded mechanism for enhancing quantum MCMC.
In this study, we propose quantum annealing-enhanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo (QAEMCMC), where QA is integrated into the MCMC subroutine. QA efficiently explores low-energy configurations and overcomes local minima, enabling the generation of proposal states with a high acceptance probability. We benchmark QAEMCMC for the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model and demonstrate its superior performance over the classical MCMC method. Our results reveal larger spectral gaps, faster convergence of energy observables, and reduced total variation distance between the empirical and target distributions. QAEMCMC accelerates MCMC and provides an efficient method for complex systems, paving the way for scalable quantum-assisted sampling strategies.