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arXiv:2511.15177

Fail fast: techniques to probe rare events in quantum error correction

Michael E. Beverland, Malcolm Carroll, Andrew W. Cross, Theodore J. Yoder

quant-phSubmitted Nov 19, 2025• Announced Nov 20, 2025• 0 citations
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Abstract

The ultimate goal of quantum error correction is to create logical qubits with very low error rates (e.g. 1e-12) and assemble them into large-scale quantum computers capable of performing many (e.g. billions) of logical gates on many (e.g. thousands) of logical qubits. However, it is necessarily difficult to directly assess the performance of such high-quality logical qubits using standard Monte Carlo sampling because logical failure events become very rare. Building on existing approaches to this problem, we develop three complementary techniques to characterize the rare-event regime for general quantum low-density parity-check (qLDPC) codes under circuit noise. (I) We propose a well-motivated, low-parameter ansatz for the failure spectrum (the fraction of fault sets of each size that fail) that empirically fits all the QEC systems we studied and predicts logical error rates at all physical error rates. (II) We find min-weight logical operators of syndrome measurement circuits and exactly compute the number of min-weight failing configurations. (III) We generalize the splitting method to qLDPC codes using multi-seeded Metropolis sampling to improve convergence for systems with many inequivalent logical operators. We apply these tools to distance-6, -12, and -18 bivariate bicycle codes under circuit noise, observing strong low-error-rate performance with the recently proposed Relay decoder but also considerable scope for further improvement.

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One of the central challenges in quantum error correction is determining the performance of a code in the low-error regimes needed to implement utility-scale computations. While performance at these error rates is not amenable to direct Monte Carlo simulation, it can be extrapolated from simulations at higher logical error rates, assuming the logical error rate scales predictably with increasing distance or decreasing physical error rate. However, the expected scaling depends sensitively on the minimum weight of uncorrectable error patterns. In many cases, the minimum weight is unknown since it depends not only on the theoretical code distance, but also on details of the implementation. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, as adapted to quantum error correction by Bravyi and Vargo, provide a way to estimate logical failure rates in these low-error regimes via simulation. While offering significant gains over Monte Carlo, the described Metropolis algorithm makes small changes to the current logical failure patterns which results in slow convergence. In this paper, we argue that typical failure patterns include a large number of easily correctable errors that coexist alongside a malignant core. This observation motivates two new approaches to better evaluate code performance. First, we describe a pruning algorithm designed to obviate these correctable errors and focus on the problematic low-weight core. Second, we develop a novel family of Metropolis-Hastings algorithms, referred to as subregion MCMC. This technique is parameterized by the fraction of the error pattern that is resampled at each step, effectively interpolating between Monte Carlo and single step MCMC. We show that a judicious choice of this parameter results in far faster convergence than prior work.

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We describe a practical approach for accessing the logical failure rates of quantum error-correcting (QEC) circuits under low physical (component) failure rate regimes. Standard Monte Carlo is often the de facto approach for studying the failure rates of quantum circuits. However, in the study of fault-tolerant error-correcting circuits, the ability to extend this approach to low physical failure rates is limited. In particular, the use of Monte Carlo to access circuits that are relatively large or have high correcting power becomes more difficult as we lower the input failure rates of the individual components (gates) in the circuit. For these reasons, many simulations studying the circuit model go no lower than end-to-end logical failure rates in the 10 − 6 regime.In this report, we outline an approach that borrows from earlier work by Bravyi and Vargo \cite{bv13} to the more complex circuit noise model. Earlier works studied both the capacity and phenomenological noise models \cite{bv13,Beverland2019,bonilla2021xzzx}, but the work is insufficient for generating similar simulations in the circuit-noise model. To the best of our knowledge, our team is the first to develop a full prescription of the rare event simulation by splitting technique for the circuit-based noise model. We have also generated promising results that are confirmed by standard Monte Carlo simulation under an accessible regime. This work shows that we can access noise in the circuit-model prescription of quantum error-correcting code to failure rates below 10 − 20 regime.

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Logical error rate is the standard benchmark for quantum error correction (QEC), but it is an aggregate quantity: it says nothing about which circuit components actually drive logical failure. Recent work introduced an error attribution scheme that computes per-component sensitivities $\partial P_L/\partial p_i$ of the logical error rate jointly from the same Monte Carlo samples used to estimate $P_L$, and showed that halving noise on the 5%–7% most sensitive components reduces logical error rates by roughly 15%–25%, about twice the improvement from randomly chosen components [1],[3]. This paper develops the quantitative structure underlying that result. We formalize the sensitivity map, derive the first-order intervention gain for targeted versus random noise-reduction budgets, and show analytically that the targeted-to-random advantage is $\rho = r/(fr + 1 - f)$, where $f$ is the hotspot fraction and $r$ the sensitivity contrast; for $f = 0.06$ and $r = 2.136$ this ratio is exactly $2$, matching the reported factor. We further show that the reported 15%–25% reductions exceed the first-order prediction of about 6% by an amplification factor of approximately $3.15$, which we attribute to nonlinear, multiplicative error propagation absent from independent-error models. We derive Monte Carlo sample-complexity requirements for the sensitivity estimator, situate attribution among channel-optimized, reinforcement-learning, and robustness-optimized QEC strategies, and identify failure modes: coherent noise, estimator variance at low $P_L$, sensitivity redistribution, and non-stationary drift. ## 1. Introduction Quantum error correction protects quantum information by encoding logical qubits redundantly and decoding measured syndromes, and its performance is almost universally reported as a single number: the logical error rate $P_L$, the probability that a logical operator flips during a memory experiment or computation cycle. This aggregate benchmark is necessary but i Full text and updates: papers.qnfo.org/papers/error-attribution-as-a-resource-allocation-principle-for-quantum-error-correctio/

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Remarkable technical progress has made high-rate, high-distance, quantum low-density parity-check codes (QLDPC) promising candidates for scalable quantum computing. However, it is hard to design low-depth syndrome extraction circuits that do not spread errors from ancilla qubits to multiple data qubits, also known as hook errors, for general QLDPC codes. Additionally, widely used decoders for these codes based on belief propagation are impaired due to short loops in the Tanner graph. Here, we investigate a hardware-aware approach to avoid these hooks and loops using biased noise ancillas. Using examples of bicycle bivariate codes and a cyclic hypergraph product code, which have been widely considered for practical application, we show that the effective fault-distance of the conventional syndrome extraction circuit can be significantly higher and the number of short loops can be significantly lower when the ancillas are subject to phase-flip errors only, compared to when they are also subject to bit-flip errors. This can result in almost an order of magnitude improvement in the logical error rate at circuit noise of $2\times 10^{-3}$ and when bit-flip errors in the ancilla are 50 times less likely than phase-flip errors. Our work demonstrates a significant and practical quantum error correction advantage with biased noise qubits in which full-bias cannot be maintained.

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Efficient post-selection for general quantum LDPC Codes

Seok-Hyung Lee, Lucas English, Stephen D. Bartlett

Abstract Post-selection strategies that discard low-confidence results can significantly improve the effective fidelity of quantum computing at the cost of reduced acceptance rates, particularly useful for offline resource state generation and moderate-depth fault-tolerant circuits. Prior work has primarily relied on the “logical gap” metric, which faces fundamental limitations including computational overhead that scales exponentially with the number of logical qubits and poor generalizability beyond surface codes. We develop post-selection strategies based on computationally efficient heuristic metrics that leverage error cluster statistics from clustering-based decoders, which are applicable to arbitrary quantum low-density parity check (QLDPC) codes. We validate our method through extensive numerical simulations on surface codes, bivariate bicycle codes, and hypergraph product codes, demonstrating orders of magnitude reductions in logical error rates with moderate abort rates. For instance, applying our strategy to the [[144, 12, 12]] bivariate bicycle code achieves ~ 1000 × reduction in the logical error rate with an abort rate of only 1% at a physical error rate of 0.1%. Additionally, we integrate our approach with the sliding-window framework for real-time decoding, featuring mid-circuit abort decisions that eliminate unnecessary overheads. Notably, its performance matches or even surpasses the original strategy, while exhibiting favorable scaling in the number of rounds.

arXiv:2510.05795•npj Quantum Information•Apr 24, 2026•3 citations
The ultimate goal of quantum error correction is to create logical qubits with very low error rates (e.g. 1e-12) and assemble them into large-scale quantum computers capable of performing many (e.g. billions) of logical gates on many (e.g. thousands) of logical qubits. However, it is necessarily difficult to directly assess the performance of such high-quality logical qubits using standard Monte Carlo sampling because logical failure events become very rare. Building on existing approaches to this problem, we develop three complementary techniques to characterize the rare-event regime for general quantum low-density parity-check (qLDPC) codes under circuit noise. (I) We propose a well-motivated, low-parameter ansatz for the failure spectrum (the fraction of fault sets of each size that fail) that empirically fits all the QEC systems we studied and predicts logical error rates at all physical error rates. (II) We find min-weight logical operators of syndrome measurement circuits and exactly compute the number of min-weight failing configurations. (III) We generalize the splitting method to qLDPC codes using multi-seeded Metropolis sampling to improve convergence for systems with many inequivalent logical operators. We apply these tools to distance-6, -12, and -18 bivariate bicycle codes under circuit noise, observing strong low-error-rate performance with the recently proposed Relay decoder but also considerable scope for further improvement.
One of the central challenges in quantum error correction is determining the performance of a code in the low-error regimes needed to implement utility-scale computations. While performance at these error rates is not amenable to direct Monte Carlo simulation, it can be extrapolated from simulations at higher logical error rates, assuming the logical error rate scales predictably with increasing distance or decreasing physical error rate. However, the expected scaling depends sensitively on the minimum weight of uncorrectable error patterns. In many cases, the minimum weight is unknown since it depends not only on the theoretical code distance, but also on details of the implementation. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, as adapted to quantum error correction by Bravyi and Vargo, provide a way to estimate logical failure rates in these low-error regimes via simulation. While offering significant gains over Monte Carlo, the described Metropolis algorithm makes small changes to the current logical failure patterns which results in slow convergence. In this paper, we argue that typical failure patterns include a large number of easily correctable errors that coexist alongside a malignant core. This observation motivates two new approaches to better evaluate code performance. First, we describe a pruning algorithm designed to obviate these correctable errors and focus on the problematic low-weight core. Second, we develop a novel family of Metropolis-Hastings algorithms, referred to as subregion MCMC. This technique is parameterized by the fraction of the error pattern that is resampled at each step, effectively interpolating between Monte Carlo and single step MCMC. We show that a judicious choice of this parameter results in far faster convergence than prior work.
We describe a practical approach for accessing the logical failure rates of quantum error-correcting (QEC) circuits under low physical (component) failure rate regimes. Standard Monte Carlo is often the de facto approach for studying the failure rates of quantum circuits. However, in the study of fault-tolerant error-correcting circuits, the ability to extend this approach to low physical failure rates is limited. In particular, the use of Monte Carlo to access circuits that are relatively large or have high correcting power becomes more difficult as we lower the input failure rates of the individual components (gates) in the circuit. For these reasons, many simulations studying the circuit model go no lower than end-to-end logical failure rates in the 10 − 6 regime.In this report, we outline an approach that borrows from earlier work by Bravyi and Vargo \cite{bv13} to the more complex circuit noise model. Earlier works studied both the capacity and phenomenological noise models \cite{bv13,Beverland2019,bonilla2021xzzx}, but the work is insufficient for generating similar simulations in the circuit-noise model. To the best of our knowledge, our team is the first to develop a full prescription of the rare event simulation by splitting technique for the circuit-based noise model. We have also generated promising results that are confirmed by standard Monte Carlo simulation under an accessible regime. This work shows that we can access noise in the circuit-model prescription of quantum error-correcting code to failure rates below 10 − 20 regime.
Quantum low-density parity-check (qLDPC) codes are promising candidates for fault-tolerant quantum computation due to their high encoding rates and distances. However, implementing logical operations using qLDPC codes presents significant challenges. Previous research has demonstrated that self-dual qLDPC codes facilitate the implementation of transversal Clifford gates. Here we introduce a method for constructing self-dual qLDPC codes by stacking non-self-dual qLDPC codes. Leveraging this methodology, we develop double-chain bicycle codes, double-layer bivariate bicycle (BB) codes, double-layer twisted BB codes, and double-layer reflection codes, many of which exhibit favorable code parameters. Additionally, we conduct numerical calculations to assess the performance of these codes as quantum memory under the circuit-level noise model, revealing that the logical failure rate can be significantly reduced with high pseudo-thresholds.
Logical error rate is the standard benchmark for quantum error correction (QEC), but it is an aggregate quantity: it says nothing about which circuit components actually drive logical failure. Recent work introduced an error attribution scheme that computes per-component sensitivities ∂PL/∂pi\partial P_L/\partial p_i∂PL​/∂pi​ of the logical error rate jointly from the same Monte Carlo samples used to estimate PLP_LPL​, and showed that halving noise on the 5%–7% most sensitive components reduces logical error rates by roughly 15%–25%, about twice the improvement from randomly chosen components [1],[3]. This paper develops the quantitative structure underlying that result. We formalize the sensitivity map, derive the first-order intervention gain for targeted versus random noise-reduction budgets, and show analytically that the targeted-to-random advantage is ρ=r/(fr+1−f)\rho = r/(fr + 1 - f)ρ=r/(fr+1−f), where fff is the hotspot fraction and rrr the sensitivity contrast; for f=0.06f = 0.06f=0.06 and r=2.136r = 2.136r=2.136 this ratio is exactly 222, matching the reported factor. We further show that the reported 15%–25% reductions exceed the first-order prediction of about 6% by an amplification factor of approximately 3.153.153.15, which we attribute to nonlinear, multiplicative error propagation absent from independent-error models. We derive Monte Carlo sample-complexity requirements for the sensitivity estimator, situate attribution among channel-optimized, reinforcement-learning, and robustness-optimized QEC strategies, and identify failure modes: coherent noise, estimator variance at low PLP_LPL​, sensitivity redistribution, and non-stationary drift. ## 1. Introduction Quantum error correction protects quantum information by encoding logical qubits redundantly and decoding measured syndromes, and its performance is almost universally reported as a single number: the logical error rate PLP_LPL​, the probability that a logical operator flips during a memory experiment or computation cycle. This aggregate benchmark is necessary but i Full text and updates: papers.qnfo.org/papers/error-attribution-as-a-resource-allocation-principle-for-quantum-error-correctio/
Remarkable technical progress has made high-rate, high-distance, quantum low-density parity-check codes (QLDPC) promising candidates for scalable quantum computing. However, it is hard to design low-depth syndrome extraction circuits that do not spread errors from ancilla qubits to multiple data qubits, also known as hook errors, for general QLDPC codes. Additionally, widely used decoders for these codes based on belief propagation are impaired due to short loops in the Tanner graph. Here, we investigate a hardware-aware approach to avoid these hooks and loops using biased noise ancillas. Using examples of bicycle bivariate codes and a cyclic hypergraph product code, which have been widely considered for practical application, we show that the effective fault-distance of the conventional syndrome extraction circuit can be significantly higher and the number of short loops can be significantly lower when the ancillas are subject to phase-flip errors only, compared to when they are also subject to bit-flip errors. This can result in almost an order of magnitude improvement in the logical error rate at circuit noise of 2×10−32\times 10^{-3}2×10−3 and when bit-flip errors in the ancilla are 50 times less likely than phase-flip errors. Our work demonstrates a significant and practical quantum error correction advantage with biased noise qubits in which full-bias cannot be maintained.
Abstract Post-selection strategies that discard low-confidence results can significantly improve the effective fidelity of quantum computing at the cost of reduced acceptance rates, particularly useful for offline resource state generation and moderate-depth fault-tolerant circuits. Prior work has primarily relied on the “logical gap” metric, which faces fundamental limitations including computational overhead that scales exponentially with the number of logical qubits and poor generalizability beyond surface codes. We develop post-selection strategies based on computationally efficient heuristic metrics that leverage error cluster statistics from clustering-based decoders, which are applicable to arbitrary quantum low-density parity check (QLDPC) codes. We validate our method through extensive numerical simulations on surface codes, bivariate bicycle codes, and hypergraph product codes, demonstrating orders of magnitude reductions in logical error rates with moderate abort rates. For instance, applying our strategy to the [[144, 12, 12]] bivariate bicycle code achieves ~ 1000 × reduction in the logical error rate with an abort rate of only 1% at a physical error rate of 0.1%. Additionally, we integrate our approach with the sliding-window framework for real-time decoding, featuring mid-circuit abort decisions that eliminate unnecessary overheads. Notably, its performance matches or even surpasses the original strategy, while exhibiting favorable scaling in the number of rounds.