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arXiv:2609.39734

Complex Quantum Dynamics Versus Classical Simulability of Noisy Random Circuits

Anjali Waghmare, Sergii Strelchuk, Sathyawageeswar Subramanian

quant-phSubmitted Sep 30, 2026• Announced Oct 1, 2026• 0 citations
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Abstract

Claims of quantum advantage rest on the classical hardness of simulating quantum circuits. Magic, operator scrambling, anticoncentration, and non-Gaussianity for fermionic circuits are standard diagnostics of complex quantum dynamics. For pure states, some of these have been rigorously connected to classical simulability. Whether these diagnostics reliably track the limits of efficient classical simulation under noise remains unclear. Here, we show that in noisy Clifford+$T$ and nearest-neighbour matchgate+SWAP circuits, dynamical diagnostics and classical simulability can separate in both directions. In particular, the diagnostics can remain nontrivial after classical simulation becomes efficient, or become trivial before known efficient classical algorithms apply. We trace this mismatch to the different statistical properties they probe: magic and scrambling depend on fourth-order statistics of the Pauli spectrum, whereas the simulation algorithms depend primarily on second-order moments, which local noise suppresses at different rates. Thus, dynamical diagnostics measured on a noisy quantum device do not by themselves constitute evidence for classical hardness.

Comments
28 pages, 3 figures

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Claims of quantum advantage rest on the classical hardness of simulating quantum circuits. Magic, operator scrambling, anticoncentration, and non-Gaussianity for fermionic circuits are standard diagnostics of complex quantum dynamics. For pure states, some of these have been rigorously connected to classical simulability. Whether these diagnostics reliably track the limits of efficient classical simulation under noise remains unclear. Here, we show that in noisy Clifford+TTT and nearest-neighbour matchgate+SWAP circuits, dynamical diagnostics and classical simulability can separate in both directions. In particular, the diagnostics can remain nontrivial after classical simulation becomes efficient, or become trivial before known efficient classical algorithms apply. We trace this mismatch to the different statistical properties they probe: magic and scrambling depend on fourth-order statistics of the Pauli spectrum, whereas the simulation algorithms depend primarily on second-order moments, which local noise suppresses at different rates. Thus, dynamical diagnostics measured on a noisy quantum device do not by themselves constitute evidence for classical hardness.
The complexity of simulating quantum many-body dynamics, or quantum computations, in the Heisenberg picture is governed by the scrambling of initially simple operators into superpositions of exponentially many Pauli strings. The corresponding expansion coefficients define the Pauli spectrum, whose structure controls the performance of classical algorithms based on truncating Pauli expansions. Here we determine the finite-depth Pauli spectrum of random quantum circuits, both in the noiseless case and in the presence of local noise, through its moments, given by the operator stabilizer Rényi entropies. In noiseless circuits, we uncover a hierarchy in the approach to the fully scrambled regime: low moments equilibrate at relatively short depths, while higher moments, which are sensitive to rare, large-amplitude Pauli coefficients, require parametrically larger depths. In noisy circuits, scrambling competes with an effective suppression of operator spreading. Above a critical error per cycle γcN=O(1)γ_c N=\mathcal{O}(1)γc​N=O(1), the operator fails to reach the fully scrambled distribution and remains supported on an atypically sparse subset of Pauli strings. Conversely, below this scale, we rigorously show that classical simulation remains exponentially hard, demonstrating that finite noise does not automatically imply classical simulability. The resulting noise-induced transition in operator complexity therefore delineates the boundary between intrinsically hard quantum dynamics and those that remain classically accessible.
Magic states are essential for universal quantum computation and are widely viewed as a key source of quantum advantage, yet in realistic devices they are inevitably noisy. In this work, we characterize how noise on injected magic resources changes the classical simulability of quantum circuits and when it induces a transition from classically intractable behavior to efficient classical simulation. We adopt a resource-centric noise model in which only the injected magic components are noisy, while the baseline states, operations, and measurements belong to an efficiently simulable family. Within this setting, we develop an approximate classical sampling algorithm with controlled error and prove explicit noise-dependent conditions under which the algorithm runs in polynomial time. Our framework applies to both qubit circuits with Clifford baselines and fermionic circuits with matchgate baselines, covering representative noise channels such as dephasing and particle loss. We complement the analysis with numerical estimates of the simulation cost, providing concrete thresholds and runtime scaling across practically relevant parameter regimes.
The quantum-trajectory description of a noisy quantum circuit is not unique: every Kraus representation of the noise channel defines a different unraveling, i.e., a different ensemble of pure states that averages to the same density matrix. While all unravelings share the same expectation values of observables, they generally differ in the amount of quantum resources carried by the individual trajectories. Here we study non-stabilizerness, or magic, quantified by the stabilizer Rényi entropy, in quantum-trajectory unravelings of Haar-random and TTT-doped random Clifford brickwork circuits subject to local dephasing noise of strength ppp. The canonical unraveling in terms of Pauli jumps is Clifford and leaves magic untouched, so that trajectories retain the Haar-random value of non-stabilizerness. Exploring the full two-parameter family of minimal unravelings, we find that the trajectory-averaged magic can be substantially reduced by a state-independent choice of Kraus operators, and that the optimal choice is not in general the projective-measurement unraveling, but a two-outcome generalized measurement in which the Kraus operators correspond to a weak measurement of the noisy qubit. The optimal unraveling reduces the extensive magic density of the trajectories by a ppp-dependent factor without altering its linear scaling with system size. At the same time, it produces a very broad distribution of magic over trajectories, with a sizable fraction of trajectories retaining Haar-random magic. Since the cost of stabilizer-based classical simulation grows exponentially with the magic of the state, these high-magic trajectories, rather than the average, control the simulation cost. Our results delineate the potential and the limitations of unraveling optimization as a route to the classical simulation of noisy quantum dynamics with stabilizer methods.
A confluence of recent works has shown that many quantum circuits and dynamics are efficiently simulable by classical algorithms that track local information, even when conventional complexity measures such as the entanglement and magic are high. Here, we introduce a novel measure of complexity, the reactivity, to capture this new method of classical attack. Unlike conventional complexity measures, the reactivity does not capture a property of a quantum state or operator in isolation, but rather a quantum experiment as a whole. We provide numerical and rigorous evidence that quantum experiments with low reactivity are simple by a host of measures: they are efficient to classically simulate, learn, and fast-forward. This motivates the search for quantum experiments with high reactivity, which may evade these simplistic features. To this end, we introduce easily implementable experimental protocols---dubbed Pauli path spectroscopy---that allow one to efficiently measure the reactivity of any quantum experiment of interest. Our protocols are applicable even when the experiment itself is beyond the reach of classical simulation.
For random quantum circuits on n qubits of depth Θ ( log ⁡ n ) with depolarizing noise, the task of sampling from the output state can be efficiently performed classically using a Pauli path method \cite{Aharonov2023_paulipaths} . This paper aims to study the performance of this method beyond random circuits. We first consider the classical simulation of local observables in circuits composed of Clifford and T gates – going beyond the average case analysis, we derive sufficient conditions for simulatability in terms of the noise rate and the fraction of gates that are T gates, and show that if noise is introduced at a faster rate than T gates, the simulation becomes classically easy. As an application of this result, we study 2D QAOA circuits that attempt to find low-energy states of classical Ising models on general graphs. There, our results shows that for hard instances of the problem, which correspond to Ising model's graph being geometrically non-local, a QAOA algorithm mapped to a geometrically local circuit architecture using SWAP gates does not have any asymptotic advantage over classical algorithms if depolarized at a constant rate. Finally, we illustrate instances where the Pauli path method fails to give the correct result, and also initiate a study of the trade-off between fragility to noise and classical complexity of simulating a given quantum circuit.
While quantum computing can accomplish tasks that are classically intractable, the presence of noise may destroy this advantage in the absence of fault tolerance. In this work, we present a classical algorithm that runs in npolylog(n)n^{\rm{polylog}(n)}npolylog(n) time for simulating quantum circuits under local depolarizing noise, thereby ruling out their quantum advantage in these settings. Our algorithm leverages a property called approximate Markovianity to sequentially sample from the measurement outcome distribution of noisy circuits. We establish approximate Markovianity in a broad range of circuits: (1) we prove that it holds for any circuit when the noise rate exceeds a constant threshold, and (2) we provide strong analytical and numerical evidence that it holds for random quantum circuits subject to any constant noise rate. These regimes include previously known classically simulable cases as well as new ones, such as shallow random circuits without anticoncentration, where prior algorithms fail. Taken together, our results significantly extend the boundary of classical simulability and suggest that noise generically enforces approximate Markovianity and classical simulability, thereby highlighting the limitation of noisy quantum circuits in demonstrating quantum advantage.