For random quantum circuits on n qubits of depth Θ ( log n ) with depolarizing noise, the task of sampling from the output state can be efficiently performed classically using a Pauli path method \cite{Aharonov2023_paulipaths} . This paper aims to study the performance of this method beyond random circuits. We first consider the classical simulation of local observables in circuits composed of Clifford and T gates – going beyond the average case analysis, we derive sufficient conditions for simulatability in terms of the noise rate and the fraction of gates that are T gates, and show that if noise is introduced at a faster rate than T gates, the simulation becomes classically easy. As an application of this result, we study 2D QAOA circuits that attempt to find low-energy states of classical Ising models on general graphs. There, our results shows that for hard instances of the problem, which correspond to Ising model's graph being geometrically non-local, a QAOA algorithm mapped to a geometrically local circuit architecture using SWAP gates does not have any asymptotic advantage over classical algorithms if depolarized at a constant rate. Finally, we illustrate instances where the Pauli path method fails to give the correct result, and also initiate a study of the trade-off between fragility to noise and classical complexity of simulating a given quantum circuit.
For random quantum circuits on n qubits of depth Θ ( log n ) with depolarizing noise, the task of sampling from the output state can be efficiently performed classically using a Pauli path method \cite{Aharonov2023_paulipaths} . This paper aims to study the performance of this method beyond random circuits. We first consider the classical simulation of local observables in circuits composed of Clifford and T gates – going beyond the average case analysis, we derive sufficient conditions for simulatability in terms of the noise rate and the fraction of gates that are T gates, and show that if noise is introduced at a faster rate than T gates, the simulation becomes classically easy. As an application of this result, we study 2D QAOA circuits that attempt to find low-energy states of classical Ising models on general graphs. There, our results shows that for hard instances of the problem, which correspond to Ising model's graph being geometrically non-local, a QAOA algorithm mapped to a geometrically local circuit architecture using SWAP gates does not have any asymptotic advantage over classical algorithms if depolarized at a constant rate. Finally, we illustrate instances where the Pauli path method fails to give the correct result, and also initiate a study of the trade-off between fragility to noise and classical complexity of simulating a given quantum circuit.
Quantum circuits with a constant rate of depolarizing noise per qubit per time step are known to converge to the uniform distribution at depth ω(p−1logn), and hence become trivially classically simulable by uniform sampling. We show that under the physically natural constraint of geometric locality, noisy circuits become classically simulable at shallower depths by substantially more structured classical algorithms. We consider arbitrary geometrically local quantum circuits on n qubits, initialized in an arbitrary product state, with nearest-neighbor gates in O(1) spatial dimensions and interspersed depolarizing noise of any constant strength p. Our first result is that when the depth exceeds a threshold d∗=Θ(p−1logn), the output distribution can be approximately sampled in quasipolynomial time. This gives a worst-case simulability result for noisy geometrically local circuits, and matches in its n-dependence the best previously known results for noisy random circuits. The proof is based on new information-theoretic bounds showing that in geometrically local noisy circuits, local regions lose correlations and independently converge to maximally mixed strictly before the entire system converges to the uniform distribution. We further prove structural results suggesting a sharper transition at depth Θ~(p−1): after coarse-graining the lattice, Pauli weight supported on long connected paths can be truncated with exponentially small error. These results provide evidence for a percolation-like mechanism behind classical simulability at constant depth, and motivate our conjecture that all noisy geometrically local circuits admit quasipolynomial-time approximate sampling once circuit depth exceeds Θ~(p−1).
We construct a polynomial-time classical algorithm that samples from the output distribution of noisy geometrically local Clifford circuits with any product-state input and single-qubit measurements in any basis. Our results apply to circuits with nearest-neighbor gates on an O(1)-D architecture with depolarizing noise after each gate. Importantly, we assume that the circuit does not contain qubit resets or mid-circuit measurements. This class of circuits includes Clifford-magic circuits and Conjugated-Clifford circuits, which are important candidates for demonstrating quantum advantage using non-universal gates. Additionally, our results can be extended to the case of IQP circuits augmented with CNOT gates, which is another class of non-universal circuits that are relevant to current experiments. Importantly, these results do not require randomness assumptions over the circuit families considered (such as anticoncentration properties) and instead hold for every circuit in each class as long as the depth is above a constant threshold. This allows us to rule out the possibility of fault-tolerance in these circuit models. As a key technical step, we prove that interspersed noise causes a decay of long-range entanglement at depths beyond a critical threshold. To prove our results, we merge techniques from percolation theory and Pauli path analysis.
Developing classical simulation algorithms for noisy quantum circuits is essential to delineating the limits of quantum advantage. Existing classical sampling approaches for general circuits require circuit depths to grow logarithmically with system size, so that noise drives the global output state close to a trivial state. Here we show that local accumulation of noise at a depth independent of system size is already sufficient. Specifically, we prove that any geometrically local circuit composed of unital operations and interspersed with single-qubit depolarizing noise of strength p after Θ(p−1logp−1) depth can be approximately sampled from a polynomial-time classical computer. This generalizes existing results that impose anticoncentration assumptions or non-universal gate sets in order to obtain a classical sampler at such shallow depths. Our proof maps the output state of the circuit to a polymer model in statistical mechanics, and combines a convergent cluster expansion with hypercontractivity of the depolarizing channel.
As quantum devices grow in size while remaining affected by noise, a key challenge is to determine when and how they can surpass classical computation on practical tasks. This requires the development of highly efficient classical simulation algorithms. Pauli backpropagation algorithms are among the most promising, having shown efficiency in simulating certain classes of parameterized quantum circuits, strong candidates for near‑term quantum advantage, under random circuit assumptions and depolarizing noise. However, their efficiency had not been demonstrated for more realistic nonunital noise models, such as amplitude damping, which better capture the behaviour of current hardware. We close this gap by adapting Pauli backpropagation to most single‑qubit noise channels, including nonunital noise, and proving that it remains efficient under these conditions. Our algorithm is parallelizable, memory‑efficient, and requires no assumptions on the locality of the observable, the geometry of the hardware, or the depth of the circuit. While hardware noise can strongly affect computational power in highly structured, fault‑tolerant circuits, our findings indicate little difference for most near‑term variational architectures. This establishes Pauli backpropagation as an efficient method for simulating noisy quantum devices under realistic noise assumptions.While these advances improve our ability to reproduce noisy expectation values of observables, many practical applications, including combinatorial optimization, require direct access to the bitstrings output by quantum circuits, as these encode candidate solutions. Classical replication of such noisy samples has so far been limited beyond the random circuit setting. To bridge this gap, we first focus on problems whose objective functions depend only on two‑body correlations, such as Max‑Cut, and apply Gaussian randomized rounding to the circuit's two‑qubit marginals. This produces classical samples whose expected cost is provably close to that of the noisy quantum device. Large‑scale simulations and experiments on IBMQ hardware confirm that the rounded samples reproduce the full energy distribution, with similar behaviour under various noise models. Coupled with Pauli backpropagation for efficiently estimating noisy marginals, this yields an end‑to‑end classical sampler operating in polynomial time for a broad class of variational circuits. Our results therefore show that sufficiently noisy quantum circuits for combinatorial optimization can be sampled from classically, clarifying where near‑term hardware may or may not outperform classical algorithms.Finally , we go beyond one and two‑body marginals and present an algorithm that samples valid bitstrings directly from a maximum‑entropy distribution matching the given expectation values of the quantum circuit. This method does not rely on the locality or sparsity of the problem's Hamiltonian and performs well across a variety of quantum circuits, including deep circuits on many qubits. When combined with Pauli propagation or error mitigation, it provides a practical pipeline for obtaining samples from quantum circuits in the near term, where full error correction might not yet be available.
We present a polynomial-time classical algorithm for estimating expectation values of arbitrary observables on typical quantum circuits under any incoherent local noise, including non-unital or dephasing. Although previous research demonstrated that some carefully designed quantum circuits affected by non-unital noise cannot be efficiently simulated, we show that this does not apply to average-case circuits, as these can be efficiently simulated using Pauli-path methods. Specifically, we prove that, with high probability over the circuit gates’ choice, Pauli propagation algorithms with tailored truncation strategies achieve an inversely polynomially small simulation error. This result holds for arbitrary circuit topologies and for any local noise, under the assumption that the distribution of each circuit layer is invariant under single-qubit random gates. Under the same minimal assumptions, we also prove that most noisy circuits can be truncated to an effective logarithmic depth for the task of estimating expectation values of observables, thus generalizing prior results to a significantly broader class of circuit ensembles. We further numerically validate our algorithm with simulations on a 6 × 6 lattice of qubits under the effects of amplitude damping and dephasing noise, as well as real-time dynamics on an 11 × 11 lattice of qubits affected by amplitude damping.
Random circuit sampling (RCS) is a leading candidate for demonstrating quantum advantage, supported by strong complexity-theoretic evidence of hardness in the ideal setting and by rapid experimental progress to date. In practice, however, noise is unavoidable, and a central problem is to identify the noise-strength boundary between classically simulable and classically hard regimes. In this work, we establish an architecture-general hardness bound for this boundary for the standard local depolarizing noise of strength γ. Assuming the standard average-case #P-hardness conjecture for ideal RCS, we show that, for any circuit architecture satisfying this conjecture, noisy RCS on the same architecture remains hard to simulate classically within any inverse-polynomial total variation distance whenever γ=O(logn/(nd)) for n-qubit circuits of depth d, unless the polynomial hierarchy collapses. Crucially, noisy-RCS hardness follows without any additional conjectural or architecture-specific assumption beyond those already entering the ideal-RCS hardness framework. Our proof combines a low-degree polynomial extrapolation with a monotonicity reduction showing that efficient classical simulation at one depolarizing noise strength implies efficient simulation at every larger strength. Together, these ingredients transfer the standard ideal-RCS hardness conjecture to sampling hardness at a prespecified noise strength. Finally, combining the convergence-to-uniformity result of Dalzell et al. [Commun. Math. Phys. 405, 78 (2024)] with our monotonicity reduction yields efficient classical simulation for γ=ω(logn/(nd)) on layered, regularly connected architectures. Thus, wherever the two architectural settings overlap, this identifies γ=Θ(logn/(nd)) as the asymptotic complexity-transition scale.