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arXiv:2608.15528

Global Precision Bounds and Success-Probability Guarantees in Quantum Parameter Learning

Federico Belliardo, James W. Gardner, Liang Jiang, Aashish A. Clerk

quant-phSubmitted Aug 16, 2026• Announced Aug 18, 2026• 0 citations• Revised Sep 3, 2026 (v2)
v1 · Aug 16, 2026v2 · Sep 3, 2026
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Abstract

Quantum metrology offers the possibility of quantum enhancements of the precision of various sensing tasks. In this manuscript, we tackle two open problems in the theory of single-shot quantum parameter learning, going beyond the usual setting of local parameter estimation via repeated measurements. The first concerns the construction of global upper bounds on the learning precision. The second concerns rigorous guarantees on the success probability of parameter learning, namely, lower bounds on the probability of learning a parameter with a certain precision, given the constraints on the resources used for the quantum metrology task. We provide rigorous, practical, and global upper bounds and success-probability guarantees for quantum parameter learning. Most importantly, we establish a fidelity-based learning guarantee for generic mixed-state models that can be viewed as the achievability-side analogue of the quantum Cramer-Rao bound. Whereas the latter provides a no-go constraint, based on the local curvature of the fidelities, our bound uses only pairwise fidelities between parameter-encoded states to certify that a prescribed precision is attainable with a guaranteed success probability. We demonstrate the versatility of the new bounds in a Rabi-frequency-learning example involving a driven qubit coupled to a bosonic environment and a collective-spin Hamiltonian learning problem. Together, the new global bounds and success-probability guarantees allow us to rule out unattainable precision and to certify attainable precision beyond what is possible via standard Fisher-information analysis or binary hypothesis testing bounds. They also allow one to tractably characterize the performance of various learning schemes, without the overhead of an explicit simulation.

Comments
39 pages, 6 figures

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Quantum metrology offers the possibility of quantum enhancements of the precision of various sensing tasks. In this manuscript, we tackle two open problems in the theory of single-shot quantum parameter learning, going beyond the usual setting of local parameter estimation via repeated measurements. The first concerns the construction of global upper bounds on the learning precision. The second concerns rigorous guarantees on the success probability of parameter learning, namely, lower bounds on the probability of learning a parameter with a certain precision, given the constraints on the resources used for the quantum metrology task. We provide rigorous, practical, and global upper bounds and success-probability guarantees for quantum parameter learning. Most importantly, we establish a fidelity-based learning guarantee for generic mixed-state models that can be viewed as the achievability-side analogue of the quantum Cramer-Rao bound. Whereas the latter provides a no-go constraint, based on the local curvature of the fidelities, our bound uses only pairwise fidelities between parameter-encoded states to certify that a prescribed precision is attainable with a guaranteed success probability. We demonstrate the versatility of the new bounds in a Rabi-frequency-learning example involving a driven qubit coupled to a bosonic environment and a collective-spin Hamiltonian learning problem. Together, the new global bounds and success-probability guarantees allow us to rule out unattainable precision and to certify attainable precision beyond what is possible via standard Fisher-information analysis or binary hypothesis testing bounds. They also allow one to tractably characterize the performance of various learning schemes, without the overhead of an explicit simulation.
Quantum Cramér--Rao theory is intrinsically local: it bounds precision near a specified parameter value, and its saturating measurement generally depends on that value. Barankin-type bounds use finite parameter displacements, but remain anchored to a chosen reference value. This leaves open a basic global-estimation problem: when the parameter is known only within a broad domain, what precision can be guaranteed by a single estimator and a single measurement strategy fixed before the true value is localized? We answer this question by introducing global score functions tied to a weighted variance over the whole parameter domain. Their correlations generate a hierarchy of precision bounds: global Cramér--Rao and Barankin-type bounds arise as restricted levels, whereas unrestricted score correlations yield a fully global bound for the prescribed weighted variance. The hierarchy recovers local Cramér--Rao theory in the many-repetition limit and reveals genuinely global precision limits for finite data over broad domains. In the quantum setting, the construction identifies when this fully global bound can be realized by a single parameter-independent measurement. The same framework extends to Bayesian estimation, recovering the Van Trees bound in the local limit while yielding stronger finite-width lower bounds on the Bayesian mean-square error beyond this limit.
In quantum metrology, a major application of quantum technologies, the ultimate precision of estimating an unknown parameter is often stated in terms of the Cramér-Rao bound. Yet, the latter fails to completely characterize the distribution of estimates in the nonasymptotic regime. Optimizing metrology protocols with respect to the Cramér-Rao bound can therefore lead to surprisingly poor finite-sample performance. This can be avoided by quantifying the quality of a metrology protocol by the probability of obtaining an estimate with a given accuracy. Using this intrinsically single-shot quantity naturally accommodates the finite-sample regime. We show that the fundamental limits of this figure of merit can be quantified through a multihypothesis testing problem between quantum states. Building on this connection, we derive an analogue of the Cramér-Rao bound that contains explicit corrections relevant to the finite-sample regime. We apply the finite-sample metrology framework to the example task of phase estimation with an ensemble of spin-1/2 particles, giving unambiguous evidence that large quantum Fisher information does not guarantee that a metrology protocol has a good finite-sample performance. Overall, analyzing the probability of success allows the reliable study of quantum metrology in the finite-sample regime and opens up a plethora of new avenues for research at the interface of quantum information theory and quantum metrology.
A usual assumption in quantum estimation is that the unknown parameter labels the possible states of the system, while it influences neither the sample space of outcomes nor the measurement aimed at extracting information on the parameter itself. This assumption is crucial to prove the quantum Cram\'er-Rao theorem and to introduce the quantum Fisher information as an upper bound to the Fisher information of any possible measurement. However, there are relevant estimation problems where this assumption does not hold and an alternative approach should be developed to find the genuine ultimate bound to precision of quantum measurements. We investigate physical situations where there is an intrinsic dependence of the measurement strategy on the parameter and find that quantum-enhanced measurements may be more precise than previously thought.
This is a tutorial aimed at illustrating some recent developments in quantum parameter estimation beyond the Cramèr–Rao bound, as well as their applications in quantum metrology. Our starting point is the observation that there are situations in classical and quantum metrology where the unknown parameter of interest, besides determining the state of the probe, is also influencing the operation of the measuring devices, e.g. the range of possible outcomes. In those cases, nonregular statistical models may appear, for which the Cramèr–Rao theorem does not hold. In turn, the achievable precision may exceed the Cramèr–Rao bound, opening new avenues for enhanced metrology. We focus on quantum estimation of Hamiltonian parameters and show that an achievable bound to precision (beyond the Cramèr–Rao) may be obtained in a closed form for the class of so-called controlled energy measurements. Examples of applications of the new bound to various estimation problems in quantum metrology are worked out in some details.
Critical quantum metrology with equilibrium states predicts quantum-enhanced sensitivity only in the vicinity of criticality, where large prior information about the parameter is required. By employing quantum Ziv-Zakai bounds, we derive a limit on the mean-square error in critical quantum metrology. For second-order quantum phase transitions, we show that the precision predicted by the Cramér-Rao bound offers no substantial improvement over the prior standard deviation. Thus, the critical quantum sensor's precision can only achieve a constant gain compared to the prior standard deviation, even without performing any measurement. We elucidate the fundamental limitation on the achievable precision in critical quantum metrology in the context of local sensing, even without considering state-preparation costs or noise. Thus, the super-Heisenberg-limited sensitivity at criticality arises from precise prior knowledge rather than a genuine gain due to criticality. Our work provides a practical framework for assessing critical quantum metrology and a routine for studying quantum sensing with many-body systems.
This is a tutorial aimed at illustrating some recent developments in quantum parameter estimation beyond the Cramèr–Rao bound, as well as their applications in quantum metrology. Our starting point is the observation that there are situations in classical and quantum metrology where the unknown parameter of interest, besides determining the state of the probe, is also influencing the operation of the measuring devices, e.g. the range of possible outcomes. In those cases, nonregular statistical models may appear, for which the Cramèr–Rao theorem does not hold. In turn, the achievable precision may exceed the Cramèr–Rao bound, opening new avenues for enhanced metrology. We focus on quantum estimation of Hamiltonian parameters and show that an achievable bound to precision (beyond the Cramèr–Rao) may be obtained in a closed form for the class of so-called controlled energy measurements. Examples of applications of the new bound to various estimation problems in quantum metrology are worked out in some details.