Pauli-based simulators offer a promising route to large-scale classical simulation of quantum circuits in the low-magic regime. Yet their applicability remains largely limited to forward simulation, making them inadequate for optimization-driven quantum tasks such as variational state preparation and parameter initialization. Existing approaches either lack native support for gradient-based optimization or suffer from severe gradient bias. Here we propose the stochastic Pauli-path simulator (SPPS), a computational framework for large-scale quantum optimization that enables unbiased stochastic gradient estimation via Pauli-path sampling across optimization iterations. Our theoretical analysis shows that the proposed simulator yields unbiased gradient estimates and admits provable convergence guarantees. We systematically evaluate our proposal, including quantum eigensolver benchmarks with up to 100 qubits and quantum neural network benchmarks with up to 40 qubits. Across these tasks, SPPS faithfully tracks optimization dynamics, converges within minutes, and broadens the role of Pauli-based simulation from forward estimation to large-scale quantum optimization.
Pauli-based simulators offer a promising route to large-scale classical simulation of quantum circuits in the low-magic regime. Yet their applicability remains largely limited to forward simulation, making them inadequate for optimization-driven quantum tasks such as variational state preparation and parameter initialization. Existing approaches either lack native support for gradient-based optimization or suffer from severe gradient bias. Here we propose the stochastic Pauli-path simulator (SPPS), a computational framework for large-scale quantum optimization that enables unbiased stochastic gradient estimation via Pauli-path sampling across optimization iterations. Our theoretical analysis shows that the proposed simulator yields unbiased gradient estimates and admits provable convergence guarantees. We systematically evaluate our proposal, including quantum eigensolver benchmarks with up to 100 qubits and quantum neural network benchmarks with up to 40 qubits. Across these tasks, SPPS faithfully tracks optimization dynamics, converges within minutes, and broadens the role of Pauli-based simulation from forward estimation to large-scale quantum optimization.
In this this paper we present an inexpensive protocol to perform runtime and memory estimation for large-scale experiments with Pauli Path simulators (PPS). Additionally, we propose a conceptually simple solution for studying whether PPS can be used as a scientific discovery tool, rather than reproducing existing answers. We start by analyzing the dynamics of the Pauli coefficients tracked in the Heisenberg picture. In addition to surprisingly generic convergence features of the Pauli coefficient distributions, we find certain regularities that allow for extrapolation of memory and runtime requirements for smaller and smaller coefficient truncation parameter δ. We then introduce a framework for understanding convergence in the absence of rigorous error guarantees on PPS. Combined with runtime analysis, we propose bifurcating quantum simulation problems broadly into two classes, based on whether there is apparent convergence of expectation values as a function of δ. This serves as a way for practitioners to understand where their problem falls on the frontier of classical simulability. In the case without apparent convergence, PPS may still serve useful as a Monte Carlo-like estimate. Applied to IBM's utility-scale experiments, we show parameter regimes where both behaviors are realized. Some of our key findings challenge conventional intuition: reducing δ does not always improve accuracy, and deeper quantum circuits may actually be easier to simulate than shallower ones. The BlueQubit SDK implementing these methods has been released publicly, offering researchers a comprehensive toolkit for evaluating this frontier classical simulation approach. These results establish practical guidelines for when PPS can serve as a reliable verification tool versus when it should be used as a complementary estimate alongside quantum experiments.
Models of quantum systems faithfully map system parameters to observations, but the inverse problem of parameter inference from measurement data presents a fundamental challenge: computationally intractable likelihoods due to an exponentially large Hilbert space. Here, we introduce simulation-based quantum system inference, a unified, likelihood-free framework that learns parameter posteriors directly from classical simulation data. The central idea is to pair polynomial-cost classical simulators, such as Pauli propagation and tensor networks, with normalizing flows or other neural density estimators for accurate, reusable inference. A single model, trained once, maps any new measurement record to its posterior in one forward pass---turning per-experiment inference into a fixed, up-front cost. We numerically demonstrate the framework's versatility across Pauli noise learning, quantum error mitigation, quantum state tomography, and Hamiltonian learning, with examples involving 81-qubit shallow circuits and 735-parameter inference. In each case, the approach yields accurate estimates of identifiable parameters, while posterior uncertainty provides additional diagnostics of non-identifiability and indicates where further characterization is needed. Our framework reduces data-acquisition requirements in quantum experiments and accelerates parameter inference, providing a practical route to characterizing and improving large-scale quantum systems.
Accurately estimating observables on noisy quantum devices remains a central challenge for near-term quantum algorithms. While quantum error mitigation techniques can reduce noise-induced bias, they often rely on unverifiable assumptions about the circuit noise, and cannot guarantee the magnitude of residual bias error. Here, rather than using classical resources to mitigate a noisy quantum circuit execution, we propose a hybrid algorithm that uses quantum resources to improve the accuracy of approximate classical Pauli-path simulation. Our protocol, Quantum Enhanced Pauli Propagation (QuEPP), uses Clifford perturbation theory (CPT) to construct a classically simulable ensemble of Clifford circuits from the low-order terms in CPT, which directly provide the approximate classical Pauli-path simulation of the target circuit. Noisy quantum expectation values of this ensemble are then used to infer a global rescaling factor that corrects quantum execution of the target circuit, providing higher-order contributions absent from the truncated low-order classical simulation. This approach requires no noise characterization, applies to arbitrary circuits, and provides a provable route to asymptotically unbiased estimates. Using IBM Heron hardware, we demonstrate QuEPP on 2D random mirror circuits of up to 49 qubits and circuit depth 80, as well as Trotterized Hamiltonian evolution, showing consistent improvements beyond classical CPT and unmitigated quantum results. QuEPP offers a simple, scalable, and model-free framework for enabling accurate quantum computation in the pre-fault-tolerant era.
Scaling parametrized quantum circuits to a larger number of qubits is a central challenge in Quantum Machine Learning: gradient estimation via the parameter-shift rule quickly becomes prohibitively expensive, while gradient-free optimizers offer limited convergence guarantees. We apply the Pauli propagation framework to a broad class of Quantum Machine Learning problems in which the loss is expressed as a function of expectation values of the circuit's observables, while keeping the relevant quantity of interest, such as the quantum state or its samples, classically intractable to compute. By propagating the observables backward through the circuit, we obtain an explicit parametric expression for the loss that can be minimized entirely on classical hardware. We also present complementary strategies to make propagation tractable at large scale, including weight-based and degree-based truncations and pruning heuristics. We demonstrate the approach on two benchmarks run on 64-qubit circuits: Variational Quantum Eigensolver on a two-dimensional Ising model, and training of a discrete-type generative model for binary images. In both cases, the classically pre-trained parameters are deployed on the IBM quantum processor ibm_berlin. For generative learning, we additionally show that the circuits considered here require substantially fewer parametrized gates than IQP-style ansätze, reducing transpilation overhead and making deployment on current quantum hardware feasible.
In this paper, we focus on the task of optimizing the parameters in Parametrized Quantum Circuits (PQCs). While popular algorithms, such as Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation (SPSA), limit the number of circuit-execution to two per iteration, irrespective of the number of parameters in the circuit, they have their own challenges. These methods use central-differences to calculate biased estimates of directional derivatives. We show, both theoretically and numerically, that this may lead to instabilities in \emph{training} the PQCs. To remedy this, we propose Stochastic Shadow Descent (\texttt{SSD}), which uses random-projections (or \emph{shadows}) of the gradient to update the parameters iteratively. We eliminate the bias in directional derivatives by employing the Parameter-Shift Rule, along with techniques from Quantum Signal Processing, to construct a quantum circuit that parsimoniously computes \emph{unbiased estimates} of directional derivatives. Finally, we prove the convergence of the \texttt{SSD} algorithm, provide worst-case bounds on the number of iterations, and numerically demonstrate its efficacy.
Variational quantum algorithms (VQAs) have attracted a lot of attention from the quantum computing community for the last few years. Their hybrid quantum-classical nature with relatively shallow quantum circuits makes them a promising platform for demonstrating the capabilities of noisy intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) devices. Although the classical machine learning community focuses on gradient-based parameter optimization, finding near-exact gradients for variational quantum circuits (VQCs) with the parameter-shift rule introduces a large sampling overhead. Therefore, gradient-free optimizers have gained popularity in quantum machine learning circles. Among the most promising candidates is the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm, due to its low computational cost and inherent noise resilience. We introduce a novel approach that uses the approximated gradient from SPSA in combination with state-of-the-art gradient-based classical optimizers. We demonstrate numerically that this out-performs both standard SPSA and the parameter-shift rule in terms of convergence rate and absolute error in simple regression tasks. The improvement of our novel approach over SPSA with stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is even amplified when shot- and hardware-noise are taken into account. We also demonstrate that error mitigation does not significantly affect our results.