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arXiv:2609.34995

Simulation-Based Quantum System Inference with Neural Posterior Estimation

Hang Zou, Anton Frisk Kockum, Martin Rahm, Simon Olsson

quant-phcs.LGSubmitted Sep 28, 2026• Announced Sep 29, 2026• 0 citations
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Abstract

Models of quantum systems faithfully map system parameters to observations, but the inverse problem of parameter inference from measurement data presents a fundamental challenge: computationally intractable likelihoods due to an exponentially large Hilbert space. Here, we introduce simulation-based quantum system inference, a unified, likelihood-free framework that learns parameter posteriors directly from classical simulation data. The central idea is to pair polynomial-cost classical simulators, such as Pauli propagation and tensor networks, with normalizing flows or other neural density estimators for accurate, reusable inference. A single model, trained once, maps any new measurement record to its posterior in one forward pass---turning per-experiment inference into a fixed, up-front cost. We numerically demonstrate the framework's versatility across Pauli noise learning, quantum error mitigation, quantum state tomography, and Hamiltonian learning, with examples involving 81-qubit shallow circuits and 735-parameter inference. In each case, the approach yields accurate estimates of identifiable parameters, while posterior uncertainty provides additional diagnostics of non-identifiability and indicates where further characterization is needed. Our framework reduces data-acquisition requirements in quantum experiments and accelerates parameter inference, providing a practical route to characterizing and improving large-scale quantum systems.

Comments
24 pages; 15 figures

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Models of quantum systems faithfully map system parameters to observations, but the inverse problem of parameter inference from measurement data presents a fundamental challenge: computationally intractable likelihoods due to an exponentially large Hilbert space. Here, we introduce simulation-based quantum system inference, a unified, likelihood-free framework that learns parameter posteriors directly from classical simulation data. The central idea is to pair polynomial-cost classical simulators, such as Pauli propagation and tensor networks, with normalizing flows or other neural density estimators for accurate, reusable inference. A single model, trained once, maps any new measurement record to its posterior in one forward pass---turning per-experiment inference into a fixed, up-front cost. We numerically demonstrate the framework's versatility across Pauli noise learning, quantum error mitigation, quantum state tomography, and Hamiltonian learning, with examples involving 81-qubit shallow circuits and 735-parameter inference. In each case, the approach yields accurate estimates of identifiable parameters, while posterior uncertainty provides additional diagnostics of non-identifiability and indicates where further characterization is needed. Our framework reduces data-acquisition requirements in quantum experiments and accelerates parameter inference, providing a practical route to characterizing and improving large-scale quantum systems.
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Readout errors are a major bottleneck to extracting reliable information from near-term quantum processors, especially when spatial correlations are non-negligible. We present a unified tensor-network framework that models the readout process as a matrix product operator (MPO), enabling efficient characterization and mitigation beyond uncorrelated approximations. The MPO model is trained via likelihood optimization on calibration data and applies to multiple tasks, including nonlocal observable estimation, random circuit sampling, and random-measurement protocols, such as classical shadows and learning-based tomography. Experiments on a superconducting processor and numerical simulations up to 20 qubits show that the MPO model captures correlated readout errors that uncorrelated models miss, with a sample cost that grows only near-linearly with system size. When extended to two-dimensional systems, the framework can also be integrated with tensor-network quantum error-correction decoders by performing joint inference over data and readout errors. These results establish tensor-network readout error mitigation as a scalable and versatile approach for noise-aware quantum data processing.
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Bayesian learning is ubiquitous for implementing classification and regression tasks, however, it is accompanied by computationally intractable limitations when the feature spaces become extremely large. Aiming to solve this problem, we develop a quantum bayesian learning framework of the restricted Boltzmann machine in the quantum-enhanced feature spaces. Our framework provides the encoding phase to map the real data and Boltzmann weight onto the quantum feature spaces and the training phase to learn an optimal inference function. Specifically, the training phase provides a physical quantity to measure the posterior distribution in quantum feature spaces, and this measure is utilized to design the quantum maximum a posterior (QMAP) algorithm and the quantum predictive distribution estimator (QPDE). It is shown that both quantum algorithms achieve exponential speed-up over their classical counterparts. Furthermore, it is interesting to note that our framework can figure out the classical bayesian learning tasks, i.e. processing the classical data and outputting corresponding classical labels. And a simulation, which is performed on an open-source software framework for quantum computing, illustrates that our algorithms show almost the same classification performance compared to their classical counterparts. Noting that the proposed quantum algorithms utilize the shallow circuit, our work is expected to be implemented on the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices, and is one of the promising candidates to achieve quantum supremacy.