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arXiv:2607.04054

Frozen-Tree Sampling Refutes Quantum Advantage of Random Circuit Sampling

Sangchul Oh

quant-phcs.CCmath-phSubmitted Jul 4, 2026• Announced Jul 7, 2026• 0 citations
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Abstract

Random circuit sampling of bitstrings from a Haar-random quantum state is widely believed to be classically intractable, and has therefore been implemented as a primary benchmark for demonstrating quantum advantage. Here, we challenge this premise by proposing an efficient classical frozen-tree sampling algorithm that exploits the conditional scale invariance of Haar-random quantum states [Oh, arXiv:2602.19448]. The frozen-tree sampler draws bitstrings of $n$ qubits in $O(n)$ time per sample. Moreover, its output probability $p_F(x)$ is statistically identical to the probability $p_C(x)$ of a random quantum circuit, since both are independent instances of the same Dirichlet distribution. Consequently, no statistical test acting on samples alone can distinguish the classical frozen-tree sampler from a quantum random circuit. The claimed quantum advantage of random circuit sampling therefore does not withstand scrutiny: its hardness lies not in sampling from the Dirichlet distribution, which is classically efficient, but in identifying a specific circuit realization.

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7 pages, 6 figures

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Random circuit sampling of bitstrings from a Haar-random quantum state is widely believed to be classically intractable, and has therefore been implemented as a primary benchmark for demonstrating quantum advantage. Here, we challenge this premise by proposing an efficient classical frozen-tree sampling algorithm that exploits the conditional scale invariance of Haar-random quantum states [Oh, arXiv:2602.19448]. The frozen-tree sampler draws bitstrings of nnn qubits in O(n)O(n)O(n) time per sample. Moreover, its output probability pF(x)p_F(x)pF​(x) is statistically identical to the probability pC(x)p_C(x)pC​(x) of a random quantum circuit, since both are independent instances of the same Dirichlet distribution. Consequently, no statistical test acting on samples alone can distinguish the classical frozen-tree sampler from a quantum random circuit. The claimed quantum advantage of random circuit sampling therefore does not withstand scrutiny: its hardness lies not in sampling from the Dirichlet distribution, which is classically efficient, but in identifying a specific circuit realization.
Over a decade after its proposal, the idea of using quantum computers to sample hard distributions has remained a key path to demonstrating quantum advantage. Yet a severe drawback remains: verification seems to require classical computation exponential in the system size, nnn. As an attempt to overcome this difficulty, we propose a new candidate for quantum advantage experiments with otherwise random "peaked circuits", i.e., quantum circuits whose outputs have high concentrations on a computational basis state. Naturally, the heavy output string can be used for classical verification. In this work, we analytically and numerically study an explicit model of peaked circuits, in which τrτ_rτr​ layers of uniformly random gates are augmented by τpτ_pτp​ layers of gates that are optimized to maximize peakedness. We show that getting 1/poly(n)1/\text{poly}(n)1/poly(n) peakedness from such circuits requires τp=Ω((τr/n)0.19)τ_{p} = Ω((τ_r/n)^{0.19})τp​=Ω((τr​/n)0.19) with overwhelming probability. However, we also give numerical evidence that nontrivial peakedness is possible in this model -- decaying exponentially with the number of qubits, but more than can be explained by any approximation where the output of a random quantum circuit is treated as a Haar-random state. This suggests that these peaked circuits have the potential for future verifiable quantum advantage experiments. Our work raises numerous open questions about random peaked circuits, including how to generate them efficiently, and whether they can be distinguished from fully random circuits in classical polynomial time.
A critical milestone on the path to useful quantum computers is quantum supremacy - a demonstration of a quantum computation that is prohibitively hard for classical computers. A leading near-term candidate, put forth by the Google/UCSB team, is sampling from the probability distributions of randomly chosen quantum circuits, which we call Random Circuit Sampling (RCS). In this paper we study both the hardness and verification of RCS. While RCS was defined with experimental realization in mind, we show complexity theoretic evidence of hardness that is on par with the strongest theoretical proposals for supremacy. Specifically, we show that RCS satisfies an average-case hardness condition - computing output probabilities of typical quantum circuits is as hard as computing them in the worst-case, and therefore #P-hard. Our reduction exploits the polynomial structure in the output amplitudes of random quantum circuits, enabled by the Feynman path integral. In addition, it follows from known results that RCS satisfies an anti-concentration property, making it the first supremacy proposal with both average-case hardness and anti-concentration.
Random circuit sampling, the task of sampling bit strings from a random unitary operator, has been implemented to demonstrate quantum advantage on the Sycamore quantum processor with 53 qubits and on the Zuchongzhi quantum processor with 56 and 61 qubits. Recently, it was claimed that classical computers using tensor network simulation could catch on to current noisy quantum processors for random circuit sampling. While the linear cross-entropy benchmark fidelity was used to certify all these claims, it may not capture statistical properties of outputs in detail. Here, we compare the bit strings sampled from classical computers using tensor network simulation by Pan et al. [F. Pan, K. Chen, and P. Zhang, Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 090502 (2022)] and by Kalachev et al. [G. Kalachev, P. Panteleev, P. Zhou, and M.-H. Yung, arXiv:2112.15083] with the bit strings from the Sycamore quantum processor. It is shown that all of Kalachev et al.'s samples passed the NIST random number tests. The heat maps of bit strings show that Pan et al.'s and Kalachev et al.'s samples are quite different from the Sycamore or Zuchongzhi samples. The analysis with the Marchenko-Pastur distribution and the Wasssertein distances demonstrates that Kalachev et al.'s samples are statistically closer to the Sycamore samples than Pan et al.'s while the three datasets have similar values for the linear cross-entropy fidelity. Our finding implies that further study is needed to certify or beat the claims of quantum advantage using random circuit sampling.
Random circuit sampling (RCS) remains one of the most competitive frameworks for demonstrating quantum advantage in near-term noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) hardware. Unfortunately, absent error-correction, existing benchmarks to characterize these experiments, like linear cross-entropy, have been classically spoofed due to noise. Because of this, there are interesting regimes, like shallow-depth random quantum circuits, where sampling is plausibly classically intractable, but no existing benchmark can distinguish between a noisy quantum computer and an adversarial classical spoofer. In this paper, we demonstrate that the nonlinear cross-entropy provides a sample-efficient benchmark for shallow-depth all-to-all random quantum circuits whose score cleanly separates noisy quantum computers from state-of-the-art classical spoofers, even in the presence of depolarizing noise. Further, we develop a binary classifier based on the notion of heavy output generation that features logarithmic sample complexity at short depth. Our evidence comes from exact analytic expressions for all-to-all Brownian circuit ensembles derived using replica tricks, and numerical simulations that corroborate these results for discrete Haar-random unitary circuits.
Random circuit sampling experiments, the leading demonstrations of quantum computational advantage, are tested with the linear cross-entropy benchmark (XEB), which scores outcomes by their ideal probabilities. We study what a high XEB score certifies about an untrusted quantum device. In the quantum query model, we show that the honest sampler's ideal score acts as a Tsirelson bound for efficient devices and certified randomness. First, exceeding the ideal score by a constant requires Ω(N1/3)Ω(N^{1/3})Ω(N1/3) queries for the Haar and Fourier oracle ensembles with NNN outcomes, and this bound is tight; this proves an earlier conjecture for Haar-random states and extends it to Fourier sampling. Second, for Fourier sampling and for Haar-random states accessed through the canonical state-preparation oracle, the nnn-bit output of a device that makes polynomially many queries and scores within o(1)o(1)o(1) of the ideal score has n−O(log⁡n)n-O(\log n)n−O(logn) bits of smooth min-entropy, even against an adversary who is entangled with the device and later learns the oracle; this is nearly optimal. As a corollary, sampling the collision distribution, which is proportional to the square of the ideal distribution, has query complexity Θ(N1/3)Θ(N^{1/3})Θ(N1/3), and a coherent version of the same algorithm approximately prepares quantum Hadamard products of states with uniform amplitude magnitudes. Both lower bounds rest on progress measures that bound the excess over the ideal score and increase only slightly with each query. For Fourier sampling the measure is the norm of the coherent amplitudes for removing pairs in a purification of the random function, combining the polynomial method with the compressed oracle technique; for Haar-random states it is the square root of the average level in an expansion in Dirichlet orthogonal polynomials, controlled by an exact identity for the effect of one observation.
Random circuit sampling, the task to sample bit strings from a random unitary operator, has been performed to demonstrate quantum advantage on the Sycamore quantum processor with 53 qubits and on the Zuchongzhi quantum processor with 56 and 61 qubits. Recently, it has been claimed that classical computers using tensor network simulation could catch on current noisy quantum processors for random circuit sampling. While the linear cross entropy benchmark fidelity is used to certify all these claims, it may not capture in detail statistical properties of outputs. Here, we compare the bit strings sampled from classical computers using tensor network simulation by Pan et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 090502 (2022)] and by Kalachev et al. [arXiv:2112.15083 (2021)] and from the Sycamore and Zuchongzhi quantum processors. It is shown that all Kalachev et al.'s samples pass the NIST random number tests. The heat maps of bit strings show that Pan et al.'s and Kalachev et al.'s samples are quite different from the Sycamore or Zuzhongzhi samples. The analysis with the Marchenko-Pastur distribution and the Wasssertein distances demonstrates that Kalachev et al.'s samples are statistically close to the Sycamore samples than Pan et al.'s while the three datasets have similar values of the linear cross entropy fidelity. Our finding implies that further study is needed to certify or beat the claims of quantum advantage for random circuit sampling.