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arXiv:2607.01037

Quantum-Informed Portfolio Selection: An End-to-End Pipeline Validated on Trapped-Ion Hardware with Real Market Data

Romina Yalovetzky, Martin J. A. Schuetz, Zichang He, Jiayu Shen, Yue Sun, Rudy Raymond, Shauna Sahay, Kishore Perla, Ruben S. Andrist, Grant Salton, Helmut G. Katzgraber, Roger Bongiovanni, Niraj Kumar, Rob Otter

quant-phcond-mat.dis-nnmath.OCSubmitted Jul 1, 2026• Announced Jul 2, 2026• 0 citations• Revised Jul 13, 2026 (v2)
v1 · Jul 1, 2026v2 · Jul 13, 2026
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Abstract

Portfolio diversification - a cornerstone of modern investment management - can be formulated as a Maximum Independent Set (MIS) problem on asset correlation graphs. Solving this problem at scale is computationally challenging, motivating the exploration of quantum algorithms for practical financial optimization. We propose an end-to-end pipeline leveraging qReduMIS, a recursive hybrid quantum-classical algorithm. Rather than using quantum optimization to directly produce a final solution, qReduMIS leverages independent set measurements from the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) to identify frozen nodes - vertices likely to belong to optimal solutions - thereby guiding and unblocking subsequent (provably optimal) classical reductions on the remaining graph. We benchmark qReduMIS on real financial data from four major market indices with up to 225 assets, executing experiments on Quantinuum's 98-qubit trapped-ion Helios system, with QAOA circuits acting on kernels of up to 78 qubits and 1016 two-qubit gates. While standalone QAOA fails to find the optimal solution for two of the largest indices (S&P 100 and Nikkei 225), qReduMIS achieves success probabilities of $0.40$ and $0.95$, respectively, with average approximation ratios $\geq 0.96$ across all four indices. We perform a systematic benchmark on the Quantinuum H2-1 noisy emulator over 73 asset correlation graphs of varying size showing that, for $p=2$ QAOA layers, the optimal time-to-solution scaling exponent of qReduMIS is $3.2$ times smaller than that of standalone QAOA.

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Portfolio diversification - a cornerstone of modern investment management - can be formulated as a Maximum Independent Set (MIS) problem on asset correlation graphs. Solving this problem at scale is computationally challenging, motivating the exploration of quantum algorithms for practical financial optimization. We propose an end-to-end pipeline leveraging qReduMIS, a recursive hybrid quantum-classical algorithm. Rather than using quantum optimization to directly produce a final solution, qReduMIS leverages independent set measurements from the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) to identify frozen nodes - vertices likely to belong to optimal solutions - thereby guiding and unblocking subsequent (provably optimal) classical reductions on the remaining graph. We benchmark qReduMIS on real financial data from four major market indices with up to 225 assets, executing experiments on Quantinuum's 98-qubit trapped-ion Helios system, with QAOA circuits acting on kernels of up to 78 qubits and 1016 two-qubit gates. While standalone QAOA fails to find the optimal solution for two of the largest indices (S&P 100 and Nikkei 225), qReduMIS achieves success probabilities of 0.400.400.40 and 0.950.950.95, respectively, with average approximation ratios ≥0.96\geq 0.96≥0.96 across all four indices. We perform a systematic benchmark on the Quantinuum H2-1 noisy emulator over 73 asset correlation graphs of varying size showing that, for p=2p=2p=2 QAOA layers, the optimal time-to-solution scaling exponent of qReduMIS is 3.23.23.2 times smaller than that of standalone QAOA.
We propose and implement a quantum-informed reduction algorithm for the maximum independent set problem that integrates classical kernelization techniques with information extracted from quantum devices. Our larger framework consists of dedicated application, algorithm, and hardware layers, and easily generalizes to the maximum weight independent set problem. In this hybrid quantum-classical framework, which we call qReduMIS, the quantum computer is used as a coprocessor to inform classical reduction logic about frozen vertices that are likely (or unlikely) to be in large independent sets, thereby opening up the reduction space after removal of targeted subgraphs. We systematically assess the performance of qReduMIS based on experiments with up to 231 qubits run on Rydberg quantum hardware available through Amazon Braket. Our experiments show that qReduMIS can help address fundamental performance limitations faced by a broad set of (quantum) solvers including Rydberg quantum devices. We outline implementations of qReduMIS with alternative platforms, such as superconducting qubits or trapped ions, and we discuss potential future extensions.
We present an end-to-end pipeline for large-scale portfolio selection with cardinality constraints and experimentally demonstrate it on trapped-ion quantum processors using hardware-aware decomposition. Building on RMT-based correlation-matrix denoising and community detection, we identify correlated asset groups and introduce a correlation-guided greedy splitting scheme that caps each cluster by the executable qubit budget. Each cluster defines a hardware-embeddable QUBO subproblem that we solve using bias-field digitized counterdiabatic quantum optimization (BF-DCQO), a non-variational method that avoids classical parameter-training loops. We recombine low-energy candidates into global portfolios and enforce feasibility with a two-stage post-processing routine: fast repair followed by a cardinality-preserving swap local search. We benchmark the workflow on a 250-asset universe taken from the S&P 500 and execute subproblems on a 64-qubit Barium development system similar to the forthcoming IonQ Tempo line. We observe that larger executable subproblem sizes reduce decomposition error and systematically improve final objective values and risk-return trade-offs relative to randomized baselines under identical post-processing. Overall, the results establish a hardware-tested route for scaling financial optimization problems, defined by a trade space in which executable problem size and circuit cost are balanced against the resulting solution quality.
Large-scale portfolio optimization is hard because investors must balance risk, return, diversification, and liquidity across many assets with complex constraints. Classical methods, such as quadratic programming or metaheuristics, often become slow or less effective as the number of assets and factors grows. In this project, I explore the use of the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) as a hybrid quantum–classical approach to portfolio selection. The framework encodes portfolio decisions as qubits and represents financial objectives—such as mean–variance trade-offs or risk-adjusted return—inside a parameterized quantum circuit. Classical optimization is then used to tune the circuit parameters so that the quantum system converges toward low-risk, high-return portfolios. Multi-factor constraints, including sector limits, liquidity rules, ESG scores, and macroeconomic risk factors, are integrated into the Hamiltonian as penalty terms. A qualitative comparison with classical solvers (e.g., mixed-integer programming and simulated annealing) suggests that QAOA can scale more gracefully in high-dimensional settings and handle complex constraint structures. Overall, the project shows how quantum hybrid optimization could support future portfolio management, linking theoretical quantum algorithms with practical, sustainability-aware investment strategies.
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The increasing complexity of financial markets has heightened the demand for advanced computational methods capable of optimizing portfolios under multi-dimensional constraints involving risk, return, diversification, and liquidity. Traditional optimization frameworks, such as mean-variance analysis and heuristic meta-optimization, are limited by their scalability and sensitivity to non-convex, high-dimensional data structures. This study explores the application of quantum algorithms to portfolio optimization, demonstrating how Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA), Quantum Annealing, and Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) can address computational bottlenecks inherent in classical approaches. Quantum computation offers the potential to encode complex financial systems as Hamiltonian functions, allowing parallel exploration of vast solution spaces through superposition and entanglement. This enables faster convergence toward optimal portfolio allocations while simultaneously accounting for multi-factor correlations and dynamic market conditions. The research further investigates the role of hybrid quantum–classical optimization pipelines, in which quantum solvers perform core optimization tasks while classical systems manage data preprocessing and constraint validation. Empirical modeling and simulation indicate that quantum-based approaches can outperform conventional methods in risk-adjusted return optimization, efficient frontier computation, and real-time portfolio rebalancing. By bridging the gap between quantum computing and financial engineering, this study contributes to the development of next-generation financial analytics systems, aligning with the broader goal of achieving more adaptive, transparent, and data-resilient financial decision-making.
Portfolio optimization is a cornerstone of financial decision-making, traditionally relying on classical algorithms to balance risk and return. Recent advances in quantum computing offer a promising alternative, leveraging quantum algorithms to efficiently explore complex solution spaces and potentially outperform classical methods in high-dimensional settings. However, conventional quantum approaches typically assume a one-to-one correspondence between qubits and variables (e.g. financial assets), which severely limits the applicability of gate-based quantum systems due to current hardware constraints. As a result, only quantum annealing-like methods have been used in realistic scenarios. In this work, we show how a gate-based variational quantum algorithm can be applied to a real-world portfolio optimization problem by assigning multiple variables per qubit. Specifically, we address a problem involving over 250 variables, where the market graph representing a real stock market is iteratively partitioned into sub-portfolios of highly correlated assets. This approach enables improved scalability compared to traditional variational methods and opens new possibilities for quantum-enhanced financial applications.