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arXiv:2606.27561

Quantum Generative Diffusion Model for Real-World Time Series

Jack Waller, Filippo Caruso, Dimitrios Makris, Rajagopal Nilavalan, Xing Liang

cs.LGquant-phSubmitted Jun 25, 2026• Announced Jun 29, 2026• 0 citations
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Abstract

Generative models have achieved remarkable success in data synthesis, though recent advances driven by increasing model scale have introduced challenges in computational cost and efficiency. Quantum machine learning offers a promising alternative, representing complex data distributions using compact, highly expressive models. Here, we propose QDiffusion-TS, the first quantum generative diffusion model for time series synthesis, and validate it on the IQM quantum processor. The framework extends a classical diffusion architecture by replacing feed-forward components within the denoising transformer with quantum neural networks, yielding a hybrid quantum transformer that reduces the number of trainable parameters in each replaced component by nearly three orders of magnitude. Evaluated on financial time series from Apple and Amazon, the model generates synthetic data that more accurately reproduces the real distributions, reducing Wasserstein distance by approximately 44% relative to its classical counterpart across both datasets. In a downstream forecasting task, augmentation with the generated data improves predictive performance by up to 71% in RMSE over a baseline trained solely on real data. These results show that quantum enhanced architectures can consistently match and frequently surpass classical performance with substantially fewer parameters, establishing a practical framework towards more efficient and scalable data-driven generative modelling.

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Generative models have achieved remarkable success in data synthesis, though recent advances driven by increasing model scale have introduced challenges in computational cost and efficiency. Quantum machine learning offers a promising alternative, representing complex data distributions using compact, highly expressive models. Here, we propose QDiffusion-TS, the first quantum generative diffusion model for time series synthesis, and validate it on the IQM quantum processor. The framework extends a classical diffusion architecture by replacing feed-forward components within the denoising transformer with quantum neural networks, yielding a hybrid quantum transformer that reduces the number of trainable parameters in each replaced component by nearly three orders of magnitude. Evaluated on financial time series from Apple and Amazon, the model generates synthetic data that more accurately reproduces the real distributions, reducing Wasserstein distance by approximately 44% relative to its classical counterpart across both datasets. In a downstream forecasting task, augmentation with the generated data improves predictive performance by up to 71% in RMSE over a baseline trained solely on real data. These results show that quantum enhanced architectures can consistently match and frequently surpass classical performance with substantially fewer parameters, establishing a practical framework towards more efficient and scalable data-driven generative modelling.
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Abstract In this paper, we address the challenge of multivariate time-series forecasting through quantum-enhanced machine learning architectures. We propose adaptation strategies that extend variational quantum circuit models (VQC), traditionally constrained to univariate data, toward the multivariate setting, exploring both purely quantum and hybrid quantum-classical formulations. First, we extend and benchmark several VQC-based and hybrid models to systematically evaluate their ability to capture cross-variable dependencies. Building on these foundations, we introduce the iQTransformer, a novel quantum transformer architecture that integrates a quantum self-attention mechanism within the iTransformer framework, enabling a quantum-native representation of inter-variable relationships. Finally, we present a comprehensive empirical evaluation on both synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating that quantum-enhanced models can achieve competitive or superior forecasting accuracy with fewer trainable parameters and faster convergence than state-of-the-art classical and quantum baselines. These findings highlight the potential of quantum-enhanced architectures as efficient and scalable tools for advancing multivariate time-series forecasting.
In this paper, we address the challenge of multivariate time-series forecasting using quantum machine learning techniques. We introduce adaptation strategies that extend variational quantum circuit models, traditionally limited to univariate data, toward the multivariate setting, exploring both purely quantum and hybrid quantum-classical formulations. First, we extend and benchmark several VQC-based and hybrid architectures to systematically evaluate their capacity to model cross-variable dependencies. Second, building upon these foundations, we introduce the iQTransformer, a novel quantum transformer architecture that integrates a quantum self-attention mechanism within the iTransformer framework, enabling a quantum-native representation of inter-variable relationships. Third, we provide a comprehensive empirical evaluation on both synthetic and real-world datasets, showing that quantum-based models may achieve competitive or superior forecasting accuracy with fewer trainable parameters and faster convergence than state-of-the-art classical and quantum baselines in some cases. These contributions highlight the potential of quantum-enhanced architectures as efficient and scalable tools for advancing multivariate time-series forecasting.
Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable success in image generation, but they are computationally intensive and time-consuming to train. In this paper, we introduce a novel diffusion model that benefits from quantum computing techniques in order to mitigate computational challenges and enhance generative performance within high energy physics data. The fully quantum diffusion model replaces Gaussian noise with random unitary matrices in the forward process and incorporates a variational quantum circuit within the U-Net in the denoising architecture. We run evaluations on the structurally complex quark and gluon jets dataset from the Large Hadron Collider. The results demonstrate that the fully quantum and hybrid models are competitive with a similar classical model for jet generation, highlighting the potential of using quantum techniques for machine learning problems.
Deep generative models are key-enabling technology to computer vision, text generation, and large language models. Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) have recently gained much attention due to their ability to generate diverse and high-quality samples in many computer vision tasks, as well as to incorporate flexible model architectures and a relatively simple training scheme. Quantum generative models, empowered by entanglement and superposition, have brought new insight to learning classical and quantum data. Inspired by the classical counterpart, we propose the quantum denoising diffusion probabilistic model (QuDDPM) to enable efficiently trainable generative learning of quantum data. QuDDPM adopts sufficient layers of circuits to guarantee expressivity, while it introduces multiple intermediate training tasks as interpolation between the target distribution and noise to avoid barren plateau and guarantee efficient training. We provide bounds on the learning error and demonstrate QuDDPM's capability in learning correlated quantum noise model, quantum many-body phases, and topological structure of quantum data. The results provide a paradigm for versatile and efficient quantum generative learning.
Abstract Generative models realized with Machine Learning (ML) techniques are powerful tools to infer complex and unknown data distributions from a finite number of training samples in order to produce new synthetic data. Diffusion Models (DMs) are an emerging framework that have recently overcome Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) in creating high‐quality images. Here, is proposed and discussed the quantum generalization of DMs, i.e., three Quantum‐Noise‐Driven Generative Diffusion Models (QNDGDMs) that could be experimentally tested on real quantum systems. The idea is to harness unique quantum features, in particular the non‐trivial interplay among coherence, entanglement, and noise that the currently available noisy quantum processors do unavoidably suffer from, in order to overcome the main computational burdens of classical diffusion models during inference. Hence, the suggestion is to exploit quantum noise not as an issue to be detected and solved but instead as a beneficial key ingredient to generate complex probability distributions from which a quantum processor might sample more efficiently than a classical one. Three examples of the numerical simulations are also included for the proposed approaches. The results are expected to pave the way for new quantum‐inspired or quantum‐based generative diffusion algorithms addressing tasks as data generation with widespread real‐world applications.