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arXiv:2606.23372

Bounding Classical and Quantum Correlations in Bayesian Networks with Quasiprobabilities

Paul Becsi, Matty J. Hoban

quant-phSubmitted Jun 22, 2026• Announced Jun 23, 2026• 0 citations
v1 · Jun 22, 2026v2 · Oct 22, 2026
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Abstract

Bell's theorem reveals that quantum theory is in tension with classical causal reasoning and, in particular, the notion of local causality. This is now understood as a particular example of non-classicality in the study of correlations in (Bayesian) networks with both unobserved and observed nodes: the correlations are probability distributions over the observed nodes. There is a great deal of work aiming to understand the bounds on quantum and classical correlations in such networks and one approach is to consider outer approximations to the former. Along these lines, we consider quasiprobabilistic models for Bayesian networks, which can be seen as classical models but the probability distributions involving unobserved nodes are "replaced" with quasiprobabilities that respect normalisation but not positivity. We denote the set of correlations resulting from these models as the quasi set. Such models have a history in the study of Bell-type non-classicality where it has been shown that they can produce all non-signalling correlations. We show a generalisation of this result for a broad class of networks, which motivates a conjecture that the quasi set recovers the so called nested Markov model. Our work utilises a connection to tensor network decompositions, which may be of independent interest.

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Bell's theorem reveals that quantum theory is in tension with classical causal reasoning and, in particular, the notion of local causality. This is now understood as a particular example of non-classicality in the study of correlations in (Bayesian) networks with both unobserved and observed nodes: the correlations are probability distributions over the observed nodes. There is a great deal of work aiming to understand the bounds on quantum and classical correlations in such networks and one approach is to consider outer approximations to the former. Along these lines, we consider quasiprobabilistic models for Bayesian networks, which can be seen as classical models but the probability distributions involving unobserved nodes are "replaced" with quasiprobabilities that respect normalisation but not positivity. We denote the set of correlations resulting from these models as the quasi set. Such models have a history in the study of Bell-type non-classicality where it has been shown that they can produce all non-signalling correlations. We show a generalisation of this result for a broad class of networks, which motivates a conjecture that the quasi set recovers the so called nested Markov model. Our work utilises a connection to tensor network decompositions, which may be of independent interest.
Bayesian networks provide a powerful tool for reasoning about probabilistic causation, used in many areas of science. They are, however, intrinsically classical. In particular, Bayesian networks naturally yield the Bell inequalities. Inspired by this connection, we generalise the formalism of classical Bayesian networks in order to investigate non-classical correlations in arbitrary causal structures. Our framework of `generalised Bayesian networks' replaces latent variables with the resources of any generalised probabilistic theory, most importantly quantum theory, but also, for example, Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. We obtain three main sets of results. Firstly, we prove that all of the observable conditional independences required by the classical theory also hold in our generalisation; to obtain this, we extend the classical ddd-separation theorem to our setting. Secondly, we find that the theory-independent constraints on probabilities can go beyond these conditional independences. For example we find that no probabilistic theory predicts perfect correlation between three parties using only bipartite common causes. Finally, we begin a classification of those causal structures, such as the Bell scenario, that may yield a separation between classical, quantum and general-probabilistic correlations.
Bell's theorem is typically understood as the proof that quantum theory is incompatible with localhidden-variable models.More generally, we can see the violation of a Bell inequality as witnessing the impossibility of explaining quantum correlations with classical causal models.The violation of a Bell inequality, however, does not exclude classical models where some level of measurement dependence is allowed, that is, the choice made by observers can be correlated with the source generating the systems to be measured.Here, we show that the level of measurement dependence can be quantitatively upper bounded if we arrange the Bell test within a network.Furthermore, we also prove that these results can be adapted in order to derive nonlinear Bell inequalities for a large class of causal networks and to identify quantumly realizable correlations that violate them.
Abstract Bell experiments measure correlations between outcomes of a number of observers measuring on a shared physical state emitted from a single source. Quantum correlations arising in such Bell experiments have been intensively studied over the last decades. Much less is known about the nature of quantum correlations arising in network structures beyond Bell experiments. Such networks can involve many independent sources emitting states to observers in accordance with the network configuration. Here, we will study classical and quantum correlations in a family of networks which can be regarded as compositions of several independent multipartite Bell experiments connected together through a central node. For such networks we present tight Bell-type inequalities which are satisfied by all classical correlations. We study properties of the violations of our inequalities by probability distributions arising in quantum theory.
Characterising quantum correlations from physical principles is a central problem in the field of quantum information theory. Entanglement breaks bounds on correlations put by Bell's theorem, thus challenging the notion of local causality as a physical principle. A natural relaxation is to study no-signalling as a constraint on joint probability distributions. It has been shown that when considered with respect to so-called locally quantum observables, bipartite non-signalling correlations never exceed their quantum counterparts; still, such correlations generally do not derive from quantum states. This leaves open the search for additional principles which identify quantum states within the larger set of (collections of) non-signalling joint probability distributions over locally quantum observables. Here, we suggest a natural generalisation of no-signalling in the form of no-disturbance to dilated systems. We prove that non-signalling joint probability distributions satisfying this extension correspond with bipartite quantum states up to a choice of time orientation in subsystems.
As with entanglement, different forms of Bell nonlocality arise in the multipartite scenario. These can be defined in terms of relaxations of the causal assumptions in local hidden-variable theories. However, a characterisation of all the forms of multipartite nonlocality has until now been out of reach, mainly due to the complexity of generic multipartite causal models. Here, we employ the formalism of Bayesian networks to reveal connections among different causal structures that make a both practical and physically meaningful classification possible. Our framework holds for arbitrarily many parties. We apply it to study the tripartite scenario in detail, where we fully characterize all the nonlocality classes. Remarkably, we identify new highly nonlocal causal structures that cannot reproduce all quantum correlations. This shows, to our knowledge, the strongest form of quantum multipartite nonlocality known to date. Finally, as a by-product result, we derive a non-trivial Bell-type inequality with no quantum violation. Our findings constitute a significant step forward in the understanding of multipartite Bell nonlocality and open several venues for future research.
Abstract Non-signalling quantum channels—relevant in, e.g., the study of Bell and Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen scenarios—may be decomposed as an affine combinations of local operations in bipartite scenarios. Moreover, when these channels correspond to stochastic maps between classical variables, such a decomposition is possible even in multipartite scenarios. These two results have proven useful when studying the properties of these channels, such as their communication and information processing power, and even when defining measures of the non-classicality of physical phenomena (such as Bell non-classicality and steering). In this paper we show that such useful quasi-stochastic characterizations of channels may be unified and applied to the broader class of multipartite non-signalling channels. Moreover, we show that this holds for non-signalling channels in quantum theory, as well as in a larger family of generalised probabilistic theories. More precisely, we prove that channels are non-signalling if and only if they can be decomposed as an affine combinations of corresponding local operations, provided that the underlying physical theory is locally tomographic—a property that quantum theory satisfies. Our results then can be viewed as a generalisation of references (Phys. Rev. Lett. 111 170403) and (2013 Phys. Rev. A 88 022318) to the multipartite scenario for arbitrary tomographically local generalised probabilistic theories (including quantum theory). Our proof technique leverages Hardy’s duotensor formalism, highlighting its utility in this line of research.