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arXiv:2604.05973 · Physical Review A

Distributions of Noisy Expectation Values over Sets of Measurement Operators

Matthew Duschenes, Roger G. Melko, Juan Carrasquilla, Raymond Laflamme

quant-phSubmitted Apr 7, 2026• Announced Apr 8, 2026• 0 citations• Revised Aug 19, 2026 (v2)
v1 · Apr 7, 2026v2 · Aug 19, 2026
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Abstract

Expectation values of measurement operators, interpreted as measurement probabilities, arise frequently throughout quantum algorithms. When quantum states are randomly distributed, their expectation values are also randomly distributed. In this work, with the goal of understanding non-unitary dynamics, we generalize previous derivations for distributions of expectation values [Campos et al., Phys. Lett. A 377, 1854 (2013)] to the case of sets of measurement operators and random mixed quantum states within variable sized environments. Using combinatorics approaches, we derive expressions for their moments. We proceed to construct empirical distributions of simulated Haar random brickwork quantum circuits with local depolarizing noise, and compare their form to a proposed effective global-depolarizing-like model with variable effective noise scales and environment dimensions. The fitted effective distributions reproduce peak behaviour across circuit depths, noise scales, and system sizes, while deviations in the distribution tails arise from local noise effects. The fit effective model parameters are also shown to vary smoothly and consistently with circuit depth and noise scale. Finally, sets of non-symmetric measurement operators are shown to exhibit distinct multi-modal distributions relative to uni-modal distributions for symmetric measurement operators, opening up questions about their simulability.

Journal reference
Phys. Rev. A 114, 022434 (2026)
DOI
10.1103/qp99-qqgy
Comments
7+17 pages, 4+4 figures

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Expectation values of measurement operators, interpreted as measurement probabilities, arise frequently throughout quantum algorithms. When quantum states are randomly distributed, their expectation values are also randomly distributed. In this work, with the goal of understanding non-unitary dynamics, we generalize previous derivations for distributions of expectation values [Campos et al., Phys. Lett. A 377, 1854 (2013)] to the case of sets of measurement operators and random mixed quantum states within variable sized environments. Using combinatorics approaches, we derive expressions for their moments. We proceed to construct empirical distributions of simulated Haar random brickwork quantum circuits with local depolarizing noise, and compare their form to a proposed effective global-depolarizing-like model with variable effective noise scales and environment dimensions. The fitted effective distributions reproduce peak behaviour across circuit depths, noise scales, and system sizes, while deviations in the distribution tails arise from local noise effects. The fit effective model parameters are also shown to vary smoothly and consistently with circuit depth and noise scale. Finally, sets of non-symmetric measurement operators are shown to exhibit distinct multi-modal distributions relative to uni-modal distributions for symmetric measurement operators, opening up questions about their simulability.
We present a polynomial-time classical algorithm for estimating expectation values of arbitrary observables on typical quantum circuits under any incoherent local noise, including non-unital or dephasing. Although previous research demonstrated that some carefully designed quantum circuits affected by non-unital noise cannot be efficiently simulated, we show that this does not apply to average-case circuits, as these can be efficiently simulated using Pauli-path methods. Specifically, we prove that, with high probability over the circuit gates’ choice, Pauli propagation algorithms with tailored truncation strategies achieve an inversely polynomially small simulation error. This result holds for arbitrary circuit topologies and for any local noise, under the assumption that the distribution of each circuit layer is invariant under single-qubit random gates. Under the same minimal assumptions, we also prove that most noisy circuits can be truncated to an effective logarithmic depth for the task of estimating expectation values of observables, thus generalizing prior results to a significantly broader class of circuit ensembles. We further numerically validate our algorithm with simulations on a 6 × 6 lattice of qubits under the effects of amplitude damping and dephasing noise, as well as real-time dynamics on an 11 × 11 lattice of qubits affected by amplitude damping.
Abstract We study the competition between Haar-random unitary dynamics and measurements for unstructured systems of qubits. For projective measurements, we derive various properties of the statistical ensemble of Kraus operators analytically, including the purification time and the distribution of Born probabilities. The latter generalizes the Porter–Thomas distribution for random unitary circuits to the monitored setting and is log-normal at long times. We also consider weak measurements that interpolate between identity quantum channels and projective measurements. In this setting, we derive an exactly solvable Fokker–Planck equation for the joint distribution of singular values of Kraus operators, analogous to the Dorokhov–Mello–Pereyra–Kumar (DMPK) equation modelling disordered quantum wires. We expect that the statistical properties of Kraus operators we have established for these simple systems will serve as a model for the entangling phase of monitored quantum systems more generally.
We study the competition between Haar-random unitary dynamics and measurements for unstructured systems of qubits. For projective measurements, we derive various properties of the statistical ensemble of Kraus operators analytically, including the purification time and the distribution of Born probabilities. The latter generalizes the Porter-Thomas distribution for random unitary circuits to the monitored setting and is log-normal at long times. We also consider weak measurements that interpolate between identity quantum channels and projective measurements. In this setting, we derive an exactly solvable Fokker-Planck equation for the joint distribution of singular values of Kraus operators, analogous to the Dorokhov-Mello-Pereyra-Kumar (DMPK) equation modelling disordered quantum wires. We expect that the statistical properties of Kraus operators we have established for these simple systems will serve as a model for the entangling phase of monitored quantum systems more generally.
The present era of quantum processors with hundreds to thousands of noisy qubits has sparked interest in understanding the computational power of these devices and how to leverage it to solve practically relevant problems. For applications that require estimating expectation values of observables the community developed a good understanding of how to simulate them classically and denoise them. Certain applications, like combinatorial optimization, however demand more than expectation values: the bit-strings themselves encode the candidate solutions. While recent impossibility and threshold results indicate that noisy samples alone rarely beat classical heuristics, we still lack classical methods to replicate those noisy samples beyond the setting of random quantum circuits.Focusing on problems whose objective depends only on two-body correlations such as Max-Cut, we show that Gaussian randomized rounding in the spirit of Goemans-Williamson applied to the circuit's two-qubit marginals produces a distribution whose expected cost is provably close to that of the noisy quantum device. For instance, for Max-Cut problems we show that for any depth-D circuit affected by local depolarizing noise p, our sampler achieves a recovery ratio 1 − O [ ( 1 − p ) D ] , giving ways to efficiently sample from a distribution that behaves similarly to the noisy circuit for the problem at hand. Beyond theory we run large-scale simulations and experiments on IBMQ hardware, confirming that the rounded samples faithfully reproduce the full energy distribution, and we show similar behaviour under other various noise models. Our results supply a simple classical surrogate for sampling noisy optimization circuits, clarify the realistic power of near-term hardware for combinatorial tasks, and provide a quantitative benchmark for future error-mitigated or fault-tolerant demonstrations of quantum advantage.
Developing classical simulation algorithms for noisy quantum circuits is essential to delineating the limits of quantum advantage. Existing classical sampling approaches for general circuits require circuit depths to grow logarithmically with system size, so that noise drives the global output state close to a trivial state. Here we show that local accumulation of noise at a depth independent of system size is already sufficient. Specifically, we prove that any geometrically local circuit composed of unital operations and interspersed with single-qubit depolarizing noise of strength ppp after Θ(p−1log⁡p−1)Θ(p^{-1} \log p^{-1})Θ(p−1logp−1) depth can be approximately sampled from a polynomial-time classical computer. This generalizes existing results that impose anticoncentration assumptions or non-universal gate sets in order to obtain a classical sampler at such shallow depths. Our proof maps the output state of the circuit to a polymer model in statistical mechanics, and combines a convergent cluster expansion with hypercontractivity of the depolarizing channel.
Adding noise can make a random quantum circuit look faster without making its unitary dynamics more random. This distinction is especially relevant in modular processors, where local gates randomize each core and scarce inter-core communication must spread that randomness across the full device. In this paper, we study this problem with a reduced second-moment transfer-matrix theory for Pauli second moments in distributed random circuits affected by the amplitude-damping, depolarizing, and dephasing noise channels. The key step is to resolve the noisy spectrum into two branches: a radial branch, describing dissipative loss of non-identity Pauli weight, and an angular branch, describing Haar-like mixing within the surviving nontrivial sector. This separation gives a simple weak-noise criterion: noise is useful for angular randomization only when it suppresses the longitudinal Bloch component more strongly than the transverse plane. Among the three channels considered, this selects amplitude damping as the only locally favorable case, while depolarizing noise is neutral and dephasing is dominated by radial loss. For multicore architectures, we derive a universal first-order law for radial leakage and track the angular branch numerically across different channels, topologies, and core partitions. The results reveal narrow windows of genuine noise-assisted Haar mixing, most clearly for amplitude damping, but rule out a generic speed-up by noise. The framework therefore distinguishes useful noisy randomization from mere dissipation.