Bitcoin already faces a quantum threat through Shor attacks on elliptic-curve signatures. This paper isolates the other component that public discussion often conflates with it: mining. Grover's algorithm halves the exponent of brute-force search, promising a quadratic edge to any quantum miner of Bitcoin. Exactly how large that edge grows depends on fault-tolerant hardware. No prior study has costed that hardware end to end. We build an open-source estimator that sweeps the full attack surface: reversible oracles for double-SHA-256 mining and RIPEMD-based address preimages, surface-code factory sizing, fleet logistics under Nakamoto-consensus timing, and Kardashev-scale energy accounting. A parametric sweep over difficulty bits b, runtime caps, and target success probabilities reveals a sharp transition. At the most favourable partial-preimage setting (b = 32, 2^224 marked states), a superconducting surface-code fleet still requires about 10^8 physical qubits and about 10^4 MW. That load is comparable to a large national grid. Tightening to Bitcoin's January 2025 mainnet difficulty (b about 79) explodes the bill to about 10^23 qubits and about 10^25 W, approaching the Kardashev Type II threshold. These numbers settle a narrower question than "Is Bitcoin quantum-secure?" Once Grover mining is lifted from asymptotic query counts to fault-tolerant physical cost, practical quantum mining collapses under oracle, distillation, and fleet overhead. To push mining into non-trivial consensus effects, one must invoke astronomical quantum fleets operating at energy scales that lie far above present-day civilization.
Bitcoin already faces a quantum threat through Shor attacks on elliptic-curve signatures. This paper isolates the other component that public discussion often conflates with it: mining. Grover's algorithm halves the exponent of brute-force search, promising a quadratic edge to any quantum miner of Bitcoin. Exactly how large that edge grows depends on fault-tolerant hardware. No prior study has costed that hardware end to end. We build an open-source estimator that sweeps the full attack surface: reversible oracles for double-SHA-256 mining and RIPEMD-based address preimages, surface-code factory sizing, fleet logistics under Nakamoto-consensus timing, and Kardashev-scale energy accounting. A parametric sweep over difficulty bits b, runtime caps, and target success probabilities reveals a sharp transition. At the most favourable partial-preimage setting (b = 32, 2^224 marked states), a superconducting surface-code fleet still requires about 10^8 physical qubits and about 10^4 MW. That load is comparable to a large national grid. Tightening to Bitcoin's January 2025 mainnet difficulty (b about 79) explodes the bill to about 10^23 qubits and about 10^25 W, approaching the Kardashev Type II threshold. These numbers settle a narrower question than "Is Bitcoin quantum-secure?" Once Grover mining is lifted from asymptotic query counts to fault-tolerant physical cost, practical quantum mining collapses under oracle, distillation, and fleet overhead. To push mining into non-trivial consensus effects, one must invoke astronomical quantum fleets operating at energy scales that lie far above present-day civilization.
Quantum computing poses a real, broad-based, but bounded and substantially mitigable threat to Bitcoin and Ethereum. We separate the two quantum algorithms that public discussion routinely conflates: Shor's algorithm breaks the elliptic-curve signatures (ECDSA over secp256k1, BLS over BLS12-381) that authorize spending, whereas Grover's algorithm does not meaningfully threaten proof-of-work mining, which is protected by a merely quadratic speedup, fault-tolerant per-operation costs, a square-root parallelization wall, and difficulty adjustment. Folding hardware scaling, the falling resource requirement, a fault-tolerance readiness lag, and expert surveys into a single Monte-Carlo forecast yields a wide, bimodal arrival distribution for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer: about a one-in-six chance by 2035, near 30% by 2040, and about 60% by 2050. Exposure is concentrated and mostly migratable: of Bitcoin's roughly six million quantum-exposed coins only about 2.3 million are irreducibly at risk, while 50 to 65% of Ether sits at key-revealed accounts that can adopt post-quantum signatures. A timely migration beats even an optimistic 2035 machine, so the binding constraint is governance, not technology. A survey of the top twenty cryptocurrencies finds none fully post-quantum. Reproducible models accompany every quantitative claim.
Our aim is to determine conditions for quantum computing technology to give rise to security risks associated with quantum Bitcoin mining. Specifically, we determine the speed and energy efficiency a quantum computer needs to offer an advantage over classical mining. We analyze the setting in which the Bitcoin network is entirely classical except for a single quantum miner who has a small hash rate compared to that of the network. We develop a closed-form approximation for the probability that the quantum miner successfully mines a block, with this probability dependent on the number of Grover iterations the quantum miner applies before making a measurement. Next, we show that for a quantum miner that is “peaceful”, this success probability is maximized if the quantum miner applies Grover iterations for 16 minutes before measuring, which is surprising as the network mines blocks every 10 minutes on average. Using this optimal mining procedure, we show that the quantum miner outperforms a classical computer in efficiency (cost per block) if the condition Q < Crb is satisfied, where Q is the cost of a Grover iteration, C is the cost of a classical hash, r is the quantum miner's speed in Grover iterations per second, and b is a factor that attains its maximum if the quantum miner uses our optimal mining procedure. This condition lays the foundation for determining when quantum mining, and the known security risks associated with it, will arise.
Bitcoin miners equipped with purpose-built quantum computers that execute Grover’s algorithm on classical candidate blocks, measuring the resulting quantum state to yield a potentially valid proof-of-work, pose a threat to Bitcoin’s security against 51% attacks. I aim to assess this threat by employing a game-theoretic framework inspired by the Lee-Ray-Santha quantum races model, extending it to better reflect how quantum miners would behave in practice. These extensions address some of the simplifications of prior works, where quantum miners performed only one quantum measurement (which does not maximise their resources), and were assumed to employ a peaceful strategy, wherein the quantum miners discard the resources already invested into searching upon receiving a broadcast of a newly-mined block (which is not enforceable). I consider a setting in which the quantum miners perform multiple quantum measurements between successive blocks, employ Sattath’s Aggressive Quantum Mining Strategy (AQMS), and must allocate limited quantum resources across these measurements. When employing Sattah’s AQMS, a quantum miner halts their execution of Grover’s algorithm and measures the resulting quantum state upon receiving a broadcast of a newly mined block, attempting to create a temporary fork and thereby decreasing the effective hash rate required for a 51% attack. In this novel setting, I derive the payoff matrices for the quantum miners and compute optimal quantum mining strategies that correspond to Nash equilibria. I simulate the deployment of these optimal quantum mining strategies within the Bitcoin network and estimate their effect on Bitcoin’s security against a 51% attack. I determine how two quantum miners should optimally allocate their quantum resources based on the network difficulty. Overall, I find that even when behaving optimally, two quantum miners cannot create enough temporary forks to render the Bitcoin network vulnerable to this quantum threat, given realistic constraints on their quantum resources. This thesis contributes to the growing body of research on the potential threats posed by scalable quantum computers, using the case of two quantum miners as a step toward understanding how quantum miners in general could affect Proof-of-Work-based cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
We study the impact that two miners equipped with quantum computers purpose-built for quantum Bitcoin mining will have on the 51% attack threshold of the Bitcoin network, given that the miners are playing a competitive game against each other to be the first to mine a block. We extend an existing game-theoretic framework for Bitcoin mining and compute the resultant payoff matrices. From these payoff matrices, we determine optimal quantum mining strategies for two non-colluding and aggressive quantum miners with multiple opportunities at finding a valid block in an otherwise classical Bitcoin network. We show that these optimal quantum mining strategies have a negligible effect on the 51% attack threshold. The novelty of our work is the inclusion of the Aggressive Quantum Mining Strategy and the realistic approach of allowing the quantum miners to restart their search if their measurements do not yield a valid block when determining the optimal quantum mining strategies. Our result is important for evaluating quantum-mining threats on cryptocurrencies based on Proof-of-Work, e.g. Bitcoin
This paper studies the effect of quantum computers on Bitcoin mining. The shift in computational paradigm towards quantum computation allows the entire search space of the golden nonce to be queried at once by exploiting quantum superpositions and entanglement. Using Grover’s algorithm, a solution can be extracted in time O(2256/t), where t is the target value for the nonce. This is better using a square root over the classical search algorithm that requires O(2256/t) tries. If sufficiently large quantum computers are available for the public, mining activity in the classical sense becomes obsolete, as quantum computers always win. Without considering quantum noise, the size of the quantum computer needs to be ≈104 qubits.
The advent of large-scale quantum computers poses an existential threat to the cryptographic algorithms that underpin modern digital security. Shor's algorithm enables quantum computers to factor large integers and compute discrete logarithms in polynomial time, rendering RSA, Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC), and Diffie-Hellman key exchange fundamentally insecure. Meanwhile, Grover's algorithm provides a quadratic speedup for brute-force search, effectively halving the security strength of symmetric ciphers and hash functions. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation into the impact of quantum computing on both asymmetric and symmetric cryptographic algorithms. We analyze the computational resources required by quantum attacks on current standards, evaluate the timeline of quantum threats based on hardware roadmaps from leading quantum computing companies, and conduct a systematic performance comparison of NIST-standardized post-quantum cryptographic (PQC) algorithms. Our experimental evaluation covers key generation time, encapsulation/decapsulation latency, signature generation/verification speed, key sizes, and bandwidth overhead across lattice-based, code-based, hash-based, and multivariate cryptographic schemes. Results indicate that lattice-based schemes, particularly CRYSTALS-Kyber and CRYSTALS-Dilithium, offer the most favorable balance of security and performance for practical deployment. We also propose a phased migration framework for transitioning existing cryptographic infrastructure to quantum-resistant alternatives, addressing compatibility, performance, and operational challenges.