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arXiv:2603.05474

Spatiotemporal Pauli processes: Quantum combs for modelling correlated noise in quantum error correction

John F Kam, Angus Southwell, Spiro Gicev, Muhammad Usman, Kavan Modi

quant-phSubmitted Mar 5, 2026• Announced Mar 6, 2026• 0 citations
v1 · Mar 5, 2026v2 · Mar 6, 2026v3 · Aug 21, 2026
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Abstract

Correlated noise is a critical failure mode in quantum error correction (QEC), as temporal memory and spatial structure concentrate faults into error bursts that undermine standard threshold assumptions. Yet, a fundamental gap persists between the stochastic Pauli models ubiquitous in QEC and the microscopic, non-Markovian descriptions of physical device dynamics. We close this gap by introducing \emph{Spatiotemporal Pauli Processes} (SPPs). By applying a multi-time Pauli twirl -- operationally realised by Pauli-frame randomisation -- to a general process tensor, we map arbitrary multi-time, non-Markovian dynamics to a multi-time Pauli process. This process is represented by a process-separable comb, or equivalently, a well-defined joint probability distribution over Pauli trajectories in spacetime. We show that SPPs inherit efficient tensor network representations whose bond dimensions are bounded by the environment's Liouville-space dimension. To interpret these structures, we develop transfer operator diagnostics linking spectra to correlation decay, and exact hidden Markov representations for suitable classes of SPPs. We demonstrate the framework via surface code memory and stability simulations of up to distance \(19\) for (i) a temporally correlated ``storm'' model that tunes correlation length at fixed marginal error rates, and (ii) a genuinely spatiotemporal 2D quantum cellular automaton bath that maps exactly to a nonlinear probabilistic cellular automaton under twirling. Tuning coherent bath interactions drives the system into a pseudo-critical regime, exhibiting critical slowing down and macroscopic error avalanches that cause a complete breakdown of surface code distance scaling. Together, these results justify SPPs as an operationally grounded, scalable toolkit for modelling, diagnosing, and benchmarking correlated noise in QEC.

Comments
54 pages, 12 figures, 1 table

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Correlated noise is a critical failure mode in quantum error correction (QEC), as temporal memory and spatial structure concentrate faults into error bursts that undermine standard threshold assumptions. Yet, a fundamental gap persists between the stochastic Pauli models ubiquitous in QEC and the microscopic, non-Markovian descriptions of physical device dynamics. We close this gap by introducing \emph{Spatiotemporal Pauli Processes} (SPPs). By applying a multi-time Pauli twirl -- operationally realised by Pauli-frame randomisation -- to a general process tensor, we map arbitrary multi-time, non-Markovian dynamics to a multi-time Pauli process. This process is represented by a process-separable comb, or equivalently, a well-defined joint probability distribution over Pauli trajectories in spacetime. We show that SPPs inherit efficient tensor network representations whose bond dimensions are bounded by the environment's Liouville-space dimension. To interpret these structures, we develop transfer operator diagnostics linking spectra to correlation decay, and exact hidden Markov representations for suitable classes of SPPs. We demonstrate the framework via surface code memory and stability simulations of up to distance (19) for (i) a temporally correlated ``storm'' model that tunes correlation length at fixed marginal error rates, and (ii) a genuinely spatiotemporal 2D quantum cellular automaton bath that maps exactly to a nonlinear probabilistic cellular automaton under twirling. Tuning coherent bath interactions drives the system into a pseudo-critical regime, exhibiting critical slowing down and macroscopic error avalanches that cause a complete breakdown of surface code distance scaling. Together, these results justify SPPs as an operationally grounded, scalable toolkit for modelling, diagnosing, and benchmarking correlated noise in QEC.
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Fault-tolerant quantum design relies on simulating noisy quantum error correction (QEC) circuits with hundreds to thousands of physical qubits and large circuit depths. High-throughput stabilizer simulators, such as Stim, are the de facto tools for this regime. However, these simulators typically support only Clifford gates and stochastic Pauli noise. As a result, more realistic device noise models-such as coherent control errors and thermal relaxation-are often approximated using Pauli Twirling. This replacement offers speed but can introduce inaccuracies. To address this, we propose QuasiStim for scalable exact QEC simulation of realistic noise, with QuasiFold as a compiler frontend and DeltaFrame as a sampling backend. QuasiFold lowers sampling overhead by merging equivalent non-Pauli sites in the quantum circuit. DeltaFrame samples the resulting stabilizer trajectories by reusing precomputed predicted references instead of resimulating the full tableau for each shot. QuasiFold can reduce the number of shots by over 100×100\times100× on bivariate-bicycle (BB) codes. Compared to a per-shot tableau simulator, DeltaFrame is 166×166\times166×--1331×1331\times1331× faster on rotated surface-code memory under coherent RZR_ZRZ​ noise as ddd grows from 5 to 35. QuasiStim also makes the PTA bias measurable: the gap is non-negligible and varies with noise strength, decoder, and circuit schedule. QuasiStim will be open-sourced upon publication at https://github.com/isaachyw/QuasiStim
Quantum error correction (QEC), the lynchpin of fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC), is designed and validated against well-behaved Pauli stochastic error models. But in real-world deployment, QEC protocols encounter a vast array of other errors -- coherent and non-Pauli errors -- whose impacts on quantum circuits are vastly different than those of stochastic Pauli errors. The impacts of these errors on QEC and FTQC protocols have been largely unpredictable to date due to exponential classical simulation cost. Here, we show how to accurately and efficiently model the effects of coherent and non-Pauli errors on FTQC, and we study the effects of such errors on syndrome extraction for surface and bivariate bicycle codes, and on magic state cultivation. Our analysis suggests that coherent error can shift fault-tolerance thresholds, increase the space-time cost of magic state cultivation, and can increase logical error rates by an order of magnitude compared to equivalent stochastic errors. These analyses are enabled by a new technique for mapping any Markovian circuit-level error model with sufficiently small error rates onto a detector error model (DEM) for an FTQC circuit. The resulting DEM enables Monte Carlo estimation of logical error rates and noise-adapted decoding, and its parameters can be analytically related to the underlying physical noise parameters to enable approximate strong simulation.