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arXiv:2512.20492

End-to-end Optimization of Single-Shot Quantum Machine Learning for Bayesian Inference

Theodoros Ilias, Fangjun Hu, Marti Vives, Hakan E. Türeci

quant-phSubmitted Dec 23, 2025• Announced Dec 24, 2025• 0 citations
v1 · Dec 23, 2025v2 · Sep 19, 2026
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Abstract

We introduce an end-to-end optimization strategy for quantum machine learning that directly targets performance under finite measurement resources, where learning objectives are defined directly at the level of task performance. The method is applied on a Bayesian quantum metrology task since it provides a natural testbed with known fundamental limits and scaling with system size. The sampling-aware hybrid algorithm achieves a single-shot risk within 1 dB of the -20 dB Bayesian limit using 32 qubits. We extend the Bayesian framework from parameter estimation to global function inference, where the task is to infer a target function of the sensor input drawn from an arbitrary prior, and we demonstrate a clear computational-sensing advantage for direct functional inference over indirect reconstruction. We relate the corresponding Bayesian risk to the Capacity metric and argue that the Resolvable Expressive Capacity provides a natural measure of the space of functions accessible in a single shot. The resulting eigentask analysis identifies noise-robust feature combinations that yield compact estimators with improved accuracy and reduced optimization cost in resource-limited or real-time on-device settings.

Comments
21 pages, 8 figures, comments are welcome

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We introduce an end-to-end optimization strategy for quantum machine learning that directly targets performance under finite measurement resources, where learning objectives are defined directly at the level of task performance. The method is applied on a Bayesian quantum metrology task since it provides a natural testbed with known fundamental limits and scaling with system size. The sampling-aware hybrid algorithm achieves a single-shot risk within 1 dB of the -20 dB Bayesian limit using 32 qubits. We extend the Bayesian framework from parameter estimation to global function inference, where the task is to infer a target function of the sensor input drawn from an arbitrary prior, and we demonstrate a clear computational-sensing advantage for direct functional inference over indirect reconstruction. We relate the corresponding Bayesian risk to the Capacity metric and argue that the Resolvable Expressive Capacity provides a natural measure of the space of functions accessible in a single shot. The resulting eigentask analysis identifies noise-robust feature combinations that yield compact estimators with improved accuracy and reduced optimization cost in resource-limited or real-time on-device settings.
Quantum sensors offer significant advantages over classical devices in spatial resolution and sensitivity, enabling transformative applications across materials science, healthcare, and beyond. Their practical performance, however, is often constrained by unmodelled effects, including noise, imperfect state preparation, and non-ideal control fields. In this work, we report the first experimental implementation of a graybox modelling strategy for a solid-state open quantum system. The graybox framework integrates a physics-based system model with a data-driven description of experimental imperfections, achieving higher fidelity than purely analytical (whitebox) approaches while requiring fewer training resources than fully deep-learning blackbox models. We experimentally validate the method on the task of estimating a static magnetic field using a single-spin quantum sensor, performing Bayesian inference with a graybox model trained on prior experimental data. Using roughly 10,000 training datapoints, the graybox model yields several orders of magnitude improvement in mean squared error over the corresponding physics-only model, as well as significant improvement over a blackbox model with comparable size. These results are broadly applicable to a wide range of quantum sensing platforms, not limited to single-spin systems, and are particularly valuable for real-time adaptive protocols, where model inaccuracies can otherwise lead to suboptimal control and degraded performance.
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Quantum sensing harnesses the unique properties of quantum systems to enable precision measurements of physical quantities such as time, magnetic and electric fields, acceleration, and gravitational gradients well beyond the limits of classical sensors. However, identifying suitable sensing probes and measurement schemes can be a classically intractable task, as it requires optimizing over Hilbert spaces of high dimension. In variational quantum sensing, a probe quantum system is generated via a parameterized quantum circuit (PQC), exposed to an unknown physical parameter through a quantum channel, and measured to collect classical data. PQCs and measurements are typically optimized using offline strategies based on frequentist learning criteria. This paper introduces an adaptive protocol that uses Bayesian inference to optimize the sensing policy via the maximization of the active information gain. The proposed variational methodology is tailored for non-asymptotic regimes where a single probe can be deployed in each time step, and is extended to support the fusion of estimates from multiple quantum sensing agents.
Tackling output sampling noise due to finite shots of quantum measurement is an unavoidable challenge when extracting information in machine learning with physical systems. A technique called Eigentask Learning was developed recently as a framework for learning with infinite input training data in the presence of output sampling noise. In the work of Eigentask Learning, numerical evidence was presented that extracting low-noise contributions of features can practically improve performance for machine learning tasks, displaying robustness to overfitting and increasing generalization accuracy. However, it remains unsolved to quantitatively characterize generalization errors in situations where the training dataset is finite, while output sampling noise still exists. In this study, we use methodologies from statistical mechanics to calculate the training and generalization errors of a generic quantum machine learning system when the input training dataset and output measurement sampling shots are both finite. Our analytical findings, supported by numerical validation, offer solid justification that Eigentask Learning provides optimal learning in the sense of minimizing generalization errors.