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arXiv:2512.06630

Quantum Temporal Convolutional Neural Networks for Cross-Sectional Equity Return Prediction: A Comparative Benchmark Study

Chi-Sheng Chen, Xinyu Zhang, Rong Fu, Qiuzhe Xie, Fan Zhang

cs.LGquant-phSubmitted Dec 7, 2025• Announced Dec 9, 2025• 0 citations
v1 · Dec 7, 2025v2 · Feb 13, 2026
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Abstract

Quantum machine learning offers a promising pathway for enhancing stock market prediction, particularly under complex, noisy, and highly dynamic financial environments. However, many classical forecasting models struggle with noisy input, regime shifts, and limited generalization capacity. To address these challenges, we propose a Quantum Temporal Convolutional Neural Network (QTCNN) that combines a classical temporal encoder with parameter-efficient quantum convolution circuits for cross-sectional equity return prediction. The temporal encoder extracts multi-scale patterns from sequential technical indicators, while the quantum processing leverages superposition and entanglement to enhance feature representation and suppress overfitting. We conduct a comprehensive benchmarking study on the JPX Tokyo Stock Exchange dataset and evaluate predictions through long-short portfolio construction using out-of-sample Sharpe ratio as the primary performance metric. QTCNN achieves a Sharpe ratio of 0.538, outperforming the best classical baseline by approximately 72\%. These results highlight the practical potential of quantum-enhanced forecasting model, QTCNN, for robust decision-making in quantitative finance.

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Quantum machine learning offers a promising pathway for enhancing stock market prediction, particularly under complex, noisy, and highly dynamic financial environments. However, many classical forecasting models struggle with noisy input, regime shifts, and limited generalization capacity. To address these challenges, we propose a Quantum Temporal Convolutional Neural Network (QTCNN) that combines a classical temporal encoder with parameter-efficient quantum convolution circuits for cross-sectional equity return prediction. The temporal encoder extracts multi-scale patterns from sequential technical indicators, while the quantum processing leverages superposition and entanglement to enhance feature representation and suppress overfitting. We conduct a comprehensive benchmarking study on the JPX Tokyo Stock Exchange dataset and evaluate predictions through long-short portfolio construction using out-of-sample Sharpe ratio as the primary performance metric. QTCNN achieves a Sharpe ratio of 0.538, outperforming the best classical baseline by approximately 72%. These results highlight the practical potential of quantum-enhanced forecasting model, QTCNN, for robust decision-making in quantitative finance.
Financial markets are complex, nonlinear, and highly dynamic systems, making accurate stock market prediction a challenging task. Traditional statistical and machine learning models often fail to capture the intricate temporal dependencies and high-dimensional interactions present in financial data. This review explores advanced approaches integrating deep learning, quantum computing, equivariant neural networks, and split attention mechanisms for stock market prediction and recommendation systems. Quantum neural networks leverage principles such as superposition and entanglement to enhance feature representation and computational efficiency, while equivariant architectures improve generalization by preserving structural relationships in data. Split attention mechanisms further enhance model performance by capturing both local and global temporal dependencies. The study also examines optimization strategies, including gradient-based methods and evolutionary algorithms, for efficient training of hybrid quantum-classical models. Additionally, the integration of recommendation systems enables personalized investment decision-making by combining market data with user preferences. Evaluations on benchmark financial datasets demonstrate improved prediction accuracy, scalability, and robustness compared to conventional models. Overall, the proposed framework offers a promising direction for developing intelligent, efficient, and next-generation financial forecasting systems.
Abstract In this paper, we investigate the application of quantum and quantum-inspired machine learning algorithms to stock return predictions. Specifically, we evaluate the performance of quantum neural network, an algorithm suited for noisy intermediate-scale quantum computers, and tensor network, a quantum-inspired machine learning algorithm, against classical models such as linear regression and neural networks. To evaluate their abilities, we construct portfolios based on their predictions and measure investment performances. The empirical study on the Japanese stock market shows the tensor network model achieves superior performance compared to classical benchmark models, including linear and neural network models. Though the quantum neural network model attains the lowered risk-adjusted excess return than the classical neural network models over the whole period, both the quantum neural network and tensor network models have superior performances in the latest market environment, which suggests capability of model’s capturing non-linearity between input features.
The financial markets of the twenty-first century present highly complex and dynamic environments that challenge traditional computational models for stock market prediction. Classical approaches such as autoregressive models, support vector regression, and conventional neural networks often fail to capture nonlinear dependencies, long-range temporal patterns, and high-dimensional interactions inherent in financial data. This limitation has motivated the exploration of quantum computing as a novel paradigm capable of leveraging superposition and entanglement to represent complex feature spaces efficiently. This survey investigates the integration of quantum neural networks with equivariant deep learning and split attention mechanisms for enhanced financial forecasting. Equivariance enables models to preserve structural relationships under transformations, improving robustness across varying market conditions, while split attention facilitates efficient handling of heterogeneous financial features such as price, volume, sentiment, and macroeconomic indicators. Furthermore, the study situates these architectures within an intelligent recommendation framework that extends beyond prediction to portfolio optimization and decision support. The survey reviews optimization techniques, datasets, and evaluation metrics across global financial markets, highlighting both performance gains and practical limitations. Key challenges identified include hardware noise, lack of real-world deployment validation, and limited interpretability. This work provides a structured foundation for advancing quantum-enhanced financial intelligence systems.
This research investigates the performance and efficacy of machine learning models in stock prediction, comparing Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Quantum Qubit-based Neural Networks (QQBNs), and Quantum Qutrit-based Neural Networks (QQTNs). By outlining methodologies, architectures, and training procedures, the study highlights significant differences in training times and performance metrics across models. While all models demonstrate robust accuracies above 70%, the Quantum Qutrit-based Neural Network consistently outperforms with advantages in risk-adjusted returns, measured by the Sharpe ratio, greater consistency in prediction quality through the Information Coefficient, and enhanced robustness under varying market conditions. The QQTN not only surpasses its classical and qubit-based counterparts in multiple quantitative and qualitative metrics but also achieves comparable performance with significantly reduced training times. These results showcase the promising prospects of Quantum Qutrit-based Neural Networks in practical financial applications, where real-time processing is critical. By achieving superior accuracy, efficiency, and adaptability, the proposed models underscore the transformative potential of quantum-inspired approaches, paving the way for their integration into computationally intensive fields.
The growing complexity, interdependencies, and rapid fluctuations inherent in modern financial markets create substantial challenges for accurate forecasting, portfolio optimization, and risk management. Conventional machine learning techniques, while powerful, often face limitations in capturing nonlinear relationships and processing high-dimensional datasets efficiently. Quantum machine learning (QML) has emerged as a promising paradigm that leverages quantum computing principles to enhance predictive modeling in finance. This study presents a comprehensive investigation into the application of QML methods—including variational quantum circuits, quantum kernel estimation, and quantum-enhanced support vector machines—for financial time-series prediction and asset price classification. We propose a hybrid quantum-classical framework that integrates quantum feature mapping with classical optimizers to improve model expressiveness and convergence. Empirical experiments are conducted using historical stock market data and synthetic datasets to benchmark QML approaches against established classical models such as long short-term memory networks and gradient boosting machines. The results demonstrate that QML techniques can achieve superior prediction accuracy and lower computational latency under certain data regimes, particularly when dealing with small-to-medium-sized datasets and high feature correlations. Additionally, the study examines scalability considerations, hardware constraints of near-term quantum devices, and the interpretability of quantum model outputs in financial decision-making contexts. The findings underscore the transformative potential of quantum machine learning as an innovative tool for advancing predictive analytics in finance and provide practical insights into how financial institutions can begin integrating QML capabilities into their workflows.
Stock market forecasting remains one of the most computationally demanding tasks in financial engineering, requiring sophisticated models capable of processing nonlinear patterns, high-frequency volatility, and large volumes of time-series data. Recent advancements in quantum computing offer the potential to surpass classical machine learning (ML) by leveraging principles such as superposition and entanglement to accelerate learning and optimization. This paper conducts a comprehensive comparison between quantum machine learning (QML) models and classical deep learning architectures for stock price prediction, emphasizing the technological improvements and optimization of computational methods. Our analysis integrates insights from prior studies, including the application of quantum-enhanced Gramian Angular Fields with CNNs [2], shallow parameterized quantum circuits for market indicators [4], and hybrid quantum-classical algorithms tailored to finance [1]. Experimental evaluation (using IBM Qiskit's quantum simulators and real hardware) demonstrates competitive performance of quantum neural networks (QNNs) against state-of-the-art recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) architectures [3]. Across AAPL/MSFT and short horizons, compact QNNs match strong LSTM baselines while using an order of magnitude fewer parameters, and—critically—transfer from calibrated simulators to IBM hardware with marginal degradation after mitigation. This device-aware training/evaluation loop exemplifies a deployable path for financial QML under realistic noise and resource constraints and motivates standardized, time-series-aware testing for the community. Results highlight the engineering value of quantum acceleration in feature encoding, the research novelty of hybrid ensemble strategies, and the future scope of benchmarking across leading quantum computing machines such as IBM, Google Sycamore, Rigetti, IonQ, and Xanadu.