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arXiv:2511.09491

Adaptive Estimation of Drifting Noise in Quantum Error Correction

Devansh Bhardwaj, Evangelia Takou, Yingjia Lin, Kenneth R. Brown

quant-phSubmitted Nov 12, 2025• Announced Nov 13, 2025• 0 citations
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Abstract

Advancing quantum information processors and building fault-tolerant architectures rely on the ability to accurately characterize the noise sources and suppress their impact on quantum devices. In practice, noise often drifts over time, whereas conventional noise characterization and decoding methods typically assume stationarity or provide only a time-average behavior of the noise. This treatment can result in suboptimal decoding performance. In this work, we present a rigorous analytical framework to capture time-dependent Pauli noise, by exploiting the syndrome statistics of quantum error correction experiments. We propose a sliding-window estimation method which allows us to recover the frequency components of the noise, by using optimal window sizes that we derive analytically. We prove the noise-filtering behavior of sliding windows, linking window size to spectral cutoff frequencies, and provide an iterative algorithm that captures multiple drift frequencies. We further introduce an overlapping window algorithm that enables us to capture rapid multi-frequency noise drifts in a single-pass fashion. Simulations for both phenomenological and circuit-level noise models validate our framework, demonstrating robust tracking of multi-frequency drift. The logical error rate obtained from our estimated models consistently align with the ground-truth logical error rate, and we find suppression of logical errors compared to static error models. Our window-based estimation methods and adaptive decoding offer new insights into noise spectroscopy and decoder optimization under drift using only syndrome data.

Comments
20 pages, 12 figures

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Adaptive Estimation of Drifting Noise in Quantum Error Correction

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Advancing quantum information processors and building fault-tolerant architectures rely on the ability to accurately characterize the noise sources and suppress their impact on quantum devices. In practice, noise often drifts over time, whereas conventional noise characterization and decoding methods typically assume stationarity or provide only a time-average behavior of the noise. This treatment can result in suboptimal decoding performance. In this work, we present a rigorous analytical framework to capture time-dependent Pauli noise, by exploiting the syndrome statistics of quantum error correction experiments. We propose a sliding-window estimation method which allows us to recover the frequency components of the noise, by using optimal window sizes that we derive analytically. We prove the noise-filtering behavior of sliding windows, linking window size to spectral cutoff frequencies, and provide an iterative algorithm that captures multiple drift frequencies. We further introduce an overlapping window algorithm that enables us to capture rapid multi-frequency noise drifts in a single-pass fashion. Simulations for both phenomenological and circuit-level noise models validate our framework, demonstrating robust tracking of multi-frequency drift. The logical error rate obtained from our estimated models consistently align with the ground-truth logical error rate, and we find suppression of logical errors compared to static error models. Our window-based estimation methods and adaptive decoding offer new insights into noise spectroscopy and decoder optimization under drift using only syndrome data.
Advancing quantum information processors and building fault-tolerant architectures rely on the ability to accurately characterize the noise sources and suppress their impact on quantum devices. In practice, noise often drifts over time, whereas conventional noise characterization and decoding methods typically assume stationarity or provide only a time-average behavior of the noise. This treatment can result in suboptimal decoding performance. In this work, we present a rigorous analytical framework to capture time-dependent Pauli noise, which is designed to use only syndrome data obtained from quantum error correction experiments. We validate this framework through numerical simulations. We propose a sliding-window estimation method which allows us to recover the frequency components of the noise, by using optimal window sizes that we derive analytically. We prove the noise-filtering behavior of sliding windows, linking window size to spectral cutoff frequencies, and provide an iterative algorithm that captures multiple drift frequencies. We further introduce an overlapping window algorithm that enables us to capture rapid multi-frequency noise drifts in a single-pass fashion. Simulations for both phenomenological and circuit-level noise models validate our framework, demonstrating robust tracking of multi-frequency drift. The logical error rate obtained from our estimated models consistently aligns with the ground-truth logical error rate, and we find suppression of logical errors compared to static error models. Our window-based estimation methods and adaptive decoding offer new insights into noise spectroscopy and decoder optimization under drift using only syndrome data.
Characterizing errors in quantum circuits is essential for device calibration, yet detecting rare error events requires a large number of samples. This challenge is particularly severe in calibrating fault-tolerant, error-corrected circuits, where logical error probabilities are suppressed to higher order relative to physical noise and are therefore difficult to calibrate through direct logical measurements. Recently, Wagner et al. [PRL 130, 200601 (2023)] showed that, for phenomenological Pauli noise models, the logical channel can instead be inferred from syndrome measurement data generated during error correction. Here, we extend this framework to realistic circuit-level noise models. From a unified code-theoretic perspective and spacetime code formalism, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for learning the logical channel from syndrome data alone and explicitly characterize the learnable degrees of freedom of circuit-level Pauli faults. Using Fourier analysis and compressed sensing, we develop efficient estimators with provable guarantees on sample complexity and computational cost. We further present an end-to-end protocol and demonstrate its performance on several syndrome-extraction circuits, achieving orders-of-magnitude sample-complexity savings over direct logical benchmarking. Our results establish syndrome-based learning as a practical approach to characterizing the logical channel in fault-tolerant quantum devices.
Noise is the fundamental challenge to quantum computation. Large-scale quantum computers will overcome this challenge with fault-tolerant architectures that leverage quantum error correction. This thesis introduces and investigates a scalable noise characterisation protocol suited to this key context. First, we introduce this protocol by building upon averaged circuit eigenvalue sampling (ACES), a framework for noise characterisation experiments that simultaneously estimates the Pauli error probabilities of all gates in a Clifford circuit and captures averaged spatial correlations between gates implemented simultaneously in the layers of the circuit. We demonstrate the scalability and performance of our protocol through circuit-level numerical simulations of the entire noise characterisation procedure. Then we demonstrate in circuit-level numerical simulation that this protocol is practically capable of calibrating a fast correlated matching decoder, enabling noise-aware decoding. We find that noise-aware decoding increases the error suppression factor of the code, leading to reductions in the logical error rate that increase exponentially with the code distance. Finally, we present several results obtained from experimentally implementing this protocol. We use the noise characterisation results to design an improved syndrome extraction circuit for a heavy hexagon memory that is adapted to the noise characteristics of the quantum device. The model error of our noise characterisation results suggests that the circuit-level Pauli noise model estimated by ACES can describe the essential features of quantum noise. We also operate a heavy hexagon memory and use noise estimates to predict performance and inform decoding. These results demonstrate that Pauli noise estimates can calibrate decoders to enable noise-aware decoding and inform the co-design of quantum error correcting codes, decoders, fault-tolerant circuits, and quantum devices.
In realistic hardware for quantum computation that possesses fault-tolerance, non-stationary noise and stochastic drift lead to logical failure from the temporal accumulation of errors, not from independent events. Static decoding and fixed calibration techniques are structurally incompatible with this situation because they do not take into account temporal correlations between errors or control-induced back-action of errors. These effects motivate control policies that must track noise evolution across correction cycles, rather than respond to individual syndromes in isolation. We treat fault-tolerant quantum computation as a stochastic control problem, modelled using reduced quantum dynamics in which Pauli error processes are governed by latent noise parameters that vary temporally. From this perspective, logical failure arises through the accumulation of a hazard variable, and the corresponding control objective depends on the full history of observations. Operating under these conditions, a Chronological Deep Q-Network (Ch-DQN) maintains an internal belief state that tracks both noise evolution and accumulated hazard. During training, backward refinement of trajectories is used to sample slowly drifting modes of operation, while runtime inference remains strictly causal. A fractional meta-update stabilizes learning in the presence of non-stationary, control-coupled dynamics. Through multi-distance simulations that incorporate stochastic drift and feedback from decision-making, Ch-DQN suppresses hazard accumulation and extends logical survival time relative to static and recurrent baselines. Error correction in this regime is therefore no longer a static decoding task, but a control process whose success is determined over time by the underlying noise dynamics.
Fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC) relies on quantum error correction to suppress physical errors and preserve logical information at scale. In practice, however, performance is constrained not only by physical noise but also by the latency of classical decoders processing rapidly generated syndrome data. This challenge is exacerbated by hardware noise that is strong, heterogeneous, and nonstationary, as well as by the simulation-to-hardware distribution shift that can substantially degrade fixed neural decoders. We present QAdapt, a noise-adaptive neural pre-decoding framework for surface-code quantum error correction. QAdapt captures local spatiotemporal correlations in syndrome data, sequentially adapts to evolving noise conditions while mitigating catastrophic forgetting, and forwards the residual syndrome to a conventional global decoder. Across 110 synthetic out-of-distribution noise configurations for rotated surface-code memory circuits, QAdapt consistently reduces the logical error rate relative to the neural pre-decoding baseline. On Google's Willow benchmark data, without target-domain fine-tuning, it achieves reductions of up to 5.79 percent in logical error rate and 9.32 percent in backend decoding latency on the residual syndrome. These results demonstrate that QAdapt provides a practical and decoder-compatible approach to improving the robustness and backend decoding efficiency of quantum error correction under evolving hardware noise.
Accurate noise models are essential for high-performance quantum error correction, yet characterizing the noise of a quantum device typically requires dedicated experiments. We present a variational framework that learns the noise model directly from quantum-error-correction syndrome and logical-observable data collected during error-corrected memory experiments. The fault-event probabilities are treated as variational parameters and optimized via gradient descent to minimize the binary cross-entropy between the decoder's predictions and experimental logical-observable outcomes. We prove that this objective is principled rather than ad hoc: a sufficiently expressive noise ansatz attains the information-theoretic minimum logical error rate. We instantiate this framework using a tensor-network decoder, which provides exact maximum-likelihood decoding and analytically differentiable gradients with respect to all noise parameters. Using circuit-level data from Google's Sycamore processor, and starting from an uninformed prior, the optimization recovers noise models whose logical error rates agree to within 2%2\%2% with those of Google's independently characterized detector error model. The mean squared error between the learned and reference noise parameters shows a clear overall decrease throughout training, confirming that the method recovers physically meaningful noise structure, not merely parameters that happen to decode well. We further demonstrate that the optimization can track device drifts in real time via warm-started updates, maintaining near-optimal decoding performance under synthetically evolving noise without the need for re-characterization. The approach is decoder-agnostic in its formulation and naturally extends to correlated noise models.