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arXiv:2510.15248

Techno-Economic Feasibility Analysis of Quantum Key Distribution for Power-System Communications

Ziqing Zhu

Published Oct 17, 2025• 0 citations
arXivHTMLPDF

Abstract

The accelerating digitalization and decentralization of modern power systems expose critical communication infrastructures to escalating cyber risks, particularly under emerging quantum computing threats. This paper presents an integrated techno-economic framework to evaluate the feasibility of Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) for secure power-system communications. A stochastic system model is developed to jointly capture time-varying key demand, QKD supply under optical-loss constraints, station-side buffering, and post-quantum cryptography (PQC) fallback mechanisms. Analytical conditions are derived for service-level assurance, including buffer stability, outage probability, and availability bounds. Building on this, two quantitative metrics, including the Levelized Cost of Security (LCoSec) and Cost of Incremental Security (CIS), are formulated to unify capital, operational, and risk-related expenditures within a discounted net-present-value framework. Using IEEE 118-bus, 123-node, and 39-bus test systems, we conduct discrete-event simulations comparing PQC-only, QKD-only, and Hybrid architectures across multiple topologies and service profiles. Results show that Hybrid architectures dominated by QKD significantly reduce key-outage probability and SLA shortfalls, achieving near-unit availability for real-time and confidentiality-critical services. Economic analyses reveal clear breakeven zones where QKD-enhanced deployments become cost-effective, primarily in metropolitan and distribution-level networks under moderate optical loss and buffer sizing. The proposed framework provides a reproducible, risk-aware decision tool for guiding large-scale, economically justified QKD adoption in future resilient power-system infrastructures.

DOI
10.48550/arxiv.2510.15248

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The accelerating digitalization and decentralization of modern power systems expose critical communication infrastructures to escalating cyber risks, particularly under emerging quantum computing threats. This paper presents an integrated techno-economic framework to evaluate the feasibility of Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) for secure power-system communications. A stochastic system model is developed to jointly capture time-varying key demand, QKD supply under optical-loss constraints, station-side buffering, and post-quantum cryptography (PQC) fallback mechanisms. Analytical conditions are derived for service-level assurance, including buffer stability, outage probability, and availability bounds. Building on this, two quantitative metrics, including the Levelized Cost of Security (LCoSec) and Cost of Incremental Security (CIS), are formulated to unify capital, operational, and risk-related expenditures within a discounted net-present-value framework. Using IEEE 118-bus, 123-node, and 39-bus test systems, we conduct discrete-event simulations comparing PQC-only, QKD-only, and Hybrid architectures across multiple topologies and service profiles. Results show that Hybrid architectures dominated by QKD significantly reduce key-outage probability and SLA shortfalls, achieving near-unit availability for real-time and confidentiality-critical services. Economic analyses reveal clear breakeven zones where QKD-enhanced deployments become cost-effective, primarily in metropolitan and distribution-level networks under moderate optical loss and buffer sizing. The proposed framework provides a reproducible, risk-aware decision tool for guiding large-scale, economically justified QKD adoption in future resilient power-system infrastructures.
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Quantum computing advances pose a serious threat to conventional public-key cryptographic systems such as RSA and elliptic curve cryptography as quantum algorithms may undermine the computational assumptions that guaranty their security. This challenge has driven the development of quantumsafe security approaches among which Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) represents a fundamentally different paradigm based on quantum mechanical principles rather than mathematical complexity. This paper presents a structured review of recent progress in QKD based on a systematic analysis of literature between 2020 and 2025, we examine core protocols including discrete-variable, continuous-variable, measurement-deviceindependent, and twin-field approaches, while also discussing their relationship with post-quantum cryptography as a complementary strategy for future secure communication systems. We provide a unified comparison framework to support practical design and policy decisions by organizing protocols and implementations along deployment dimensions. The study analyze theoretical foundations, implementation technologies across fiber, free-space, satellite, and integrated photonic platforms, and key performance trade-offs involving scalability, security robustness, and deployment feasibility. Findings indicate substantial progress in transitioning QKD from laboratory research toward practical implementations, supported by advances in network architectures, integrated hardware and hybrid cryptographic designs. The comparative analysis will highlight distinct strengths and limitations among protocol families and emphasize the potential of combining QKD with post-quantum cryptographic methods to enhance resilience. Remaining challenges including scalability constraints, implementation-level vulnerabilities, performance limitations over long distances, and integration with existing communication infrastructures are critically discussed. Finally, emerging research directions such as quantum repeaters, hybrid quantum-classical security models, and exploratory directions such as artificial intelligence-assisted optimizations are identified as key factors in enabling the evolution of QKD toward largescale quantum-secure networking.
Quantum computing is posing a serious risk to classical cryptographic tools such as RSA and ECC as sophisticated quantum algorithms are able to crack their mathematical foundation in a time bound that is a a polynomial in the number of repetitions. In this paper, we will describe the process of integrating Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) and Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) into a hybrid approach to secure communications in the post-quantum world. The suggested methodology is a combination of the computational efficiency and scalability of PQC and the information-theoretic security and eavesdropping detection abilities of QKD. Simulation observations indicate that PQC-only systems are both faster in generating keys and scalable, but do not have a strong eavesdropping detection. On the other hand, non-conditional security is only a feature of systems based on QKD, but it is also highly overhead and slows down key rate. The hybrid PQC-Q KD model provides a balanced performance, high resilience, high authentication, high confidentiality, and realistic deployability. On balance, this discussion demonstrates that the hybrid approach is better than standalone methods and can provide a strong solution to protect against new quantum threats. The large-scale network protocol can be optimized, resources and further integration with other emerging technologies, such as 5G/6G, IoT or cloud computing, can be directed in future research.
The integration of blockchain with hybrid cryptographic models was redefining the security paradigm for decentralized energy transactions. As energy infrastructures increasingly adopt digital and distributed ledger technologies, ensuring data integrity, confidentiality, and resilience against emerging cyber threats was paramount. Conventional cryptographic mechanisms employed in blockchain networks face significant vulnerabilities, particularly with the advent of quantum computing. Hybrid cryptographic models, which combine classical cryptographic techniques with post-quantum security frameworks, offer a viable solution to address these challenges. This chapter explores the key challenges associated with implementing blockchain-based hybrid cryptographic models, including computational overhead, interoperability constraints, security vulnerabilities, and scalability concerns. It also examines the future prospects of integrating quantum-resistant cryptographic techniques such as lattice-based cryptography, hash-based signatures, and quantum key distribution (QKD) to enhance blockchain security. It highlights the role of advanced key management strategies and optimized consensus mechanisms in ensuring efficient and secure energy transactions. By bridging blockchain technology with quantum-secure cryptographic advancements, this study provides a comprehensive outlook on the evolution of decentralized security frameworks for energy systems, paving the way for robust, scalable, and future-proof solutions.
To address growing cybersecurity challenges in modern power dispatch systems, this paper proposes a multi-layer modeling and optimization framework for SCADA systems enhanced with quantum key distribution (QKD). While most existing applications of QKD in the power sector focus on building secure point-to-point communication tunnels, they rarely consider the system-level coupling between key dynamics and control scheduling. In contrast, our approach integrates quantum key generation, consumption, inventory prediction, and control latency into a unified model, enabling key-aware reconfiguration of SCADA control chains based on task security demands and real-time resource constraints. To resolve conflicts in key resource allocation between transmission system operators (TSOs) and distribution system operators (DSOs), we formulate a bi-level Stackelberg game and transform it into a mathematical program with complementarity constraints (MPCC). We further develop an efficient Level Decomposition-Complementarity Pruning (LD-CP) algorithm to solve the problem. To support reproducible evaluation, we build an end-to-end co-simulation platform that integrates physical-layer disruptions via OpenQKD-Sim, Q3P/IEC-104 protocol stack binding, and real-time control-chain monitoring through Grafana. Experimental results on the IEEE 39- and 118-bus systems show that our method increases task success rate by 25%, reduces peak frequency deviation by 70%, and improves key utilization to 83%. This work lays the foundation for future quantum-secure control systems in power grid operations.