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arXiv:2509.23047 · European Journal for Philosophy of Science

From statistical dependence to the space of possible superdeterministic theories

Mordecai Waegell, Kelvin J. McQueen

Published Oct 17, 2025• 0 citations
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Abstract

Abstract Bell’s theorem demonstrates that any physical theory that is consistent with the predictions of quantum mechanics, and which satisfies some apparently innocuous assumptions, must violate the principle of local causality . It may therefore be possible to maintain local causality by rejecting one of these other assumptions instead. One possibility that has recently received significant attention involves rejecting the principle of statistical independence (SI). In this paper, we consider the frequency interpretation of SI, which states that $$\rho (\lambda ) \approx \rho (\lambda | Z)$$ , where $$\rho (\lambda )$$ is the relative frequency of an element of an ensemble being in the state $$\lambda$$ , and Z is a label that separates the ensemble into apparently randomly selected sub-ensembles. SI is violated when the sub-ensemble frequency $$\rho (\lambda | Z)$$ fails to be representative of the ensemble frequency $$\rho (\lambda )$$ . We argue that physical theories that systematically violate SI should all be understood as superdeterministic . This perspective on SI sheds light on a number of issues that are being debated in the superdeterminism literature, especially concerning its scope and philosophical consequences. Regarding scope, we argue that superdeterministic theories fall into three categories, deterministic theories with fine-tuned initial conditions, fluke theories, and nomic exclusion theories. We also argue that retrocausal and invariant set theories need not violate SI, which is contrary to how they are normally presented. Regarding philosophical implications, we argue that superdeterminism is incompatible with free will according to some prominent compatibilist accounts. We also argue that although superdeterminism is conspiratorial, it is not unscientific, but pre-scientific.

DOI
10.1007/s13194-025-00693-x

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Abstract Bell’s theorem demonstrates that any physical theory that is consistent with the predictions of quantum mechanics, and which satisfies some apparently innocuous assumptions, must violate the principle of local causality . It may therefore be possible to maintain local causality by rejecting one of these other assumptions instead. One possibility that has recently received significant attention involves rejecting the principle of statistical independence (SI). In this paper, we consider the frequency interpretation of SI, which states that ρ(λ)≈ρ(λ∣Z)\rho (\lambda ) \approx \rho (\lambda | Z)ρ(λ)≈ρ(λ∣Z) , where ρ(λ)\rho (\lambda )ρ(λ) is the relative frequency of an element of an ensemble being in the state λ\lambdaλ , and Z is a label that separates the ensemble into apparently randomly selected sub-ensembles. SI is violated when the sub-ensemble frequency ρ(λ∣Z)\rho (\lambda | Z)ρ(λ∣Z) fails to be representative of the ensemble frequency ρ(λ)\rho (\lambda )ρ(λ) . We argue that physical theories that systematically violate SI should all be understood as superdeterministic . This perspective on SI sheds light on a number of issues that are being debated in the superdeterminism literature, especially concerning its scope and philosophical consequences. Regarding scope, we argue that superdeterministic theories fall into three categories, deterministic theories with fine-tuned initial conditions, fluke theories, and nomic exclusion theories. We also argue that retrocausal and invariant set theories need not violate SI, which is contrary to how they are normally presented. Regarding philosophical implications, we argue that superdeterminism is incompatible with free will according to some prominent compatibilist accounts. We also argue that although superdeterminism is conspiratorial, it is not unscientific, but pre-scientific.
The violation of Bell inequalities seems to establish an important fact about the world: that it is non-local. However, this result relies on the assumption of the statistical independence of the measurement settings with respect to potential past events that might have determined them. Superdeterminism refers to the view that a local, and determinist, account of Bell inequalities violations is possible, by rejecting this assumption of statistical independence. We examine and clarify various problems with superdeterminism, looking in particular at its consequences on the nature of scientific laws and scientific reasoning. We argue that the view requires a neo-Humean account of at least some laws, and creates a significant problem for the use of statistical independence in other parts of physics and science more generally.
Superdeterminism has received recent attention as a possible path toward a locally causal explanation of the entanglement correlations that appear in experimental tests of Bell's theorem. While the term `superdeterminism' was coined by Bell to refer to restrictions on the free will of experimenters, it was not rigorously defined until recently. It has now been defined as a property of any physical theory that produces systematic violations of statistical independence. Here we focus on formalizing the requirements that being nonsuperdeterministic places on a physical theory, and setting a standard that must be met before we can conclude that a given theory is not superdeterministic. We begin by carefully examining how a physical theory determines what outcomes we observe when performing measurements in terms of ontic states and response functions, and how this differs between superdeterministic and nonsuperdeterministic theories, in terms of the behavior of the types of vetted random sampling procedures that we use in experiments. The core result is that individual samples and measurement outcomes must be representative of the observed distributions, which is explained in detail. This also has a bearing on how measurement settings are chosen by agents, whether freely or randomly, and we argue that this standard ultimately defines what freedom/independence actually mean. We then discuss contextuality, and show that in most cases, superdeterminism is contextual. Finally, we discuss how different physical theories, with different notions of ontic states and response functions, can give rise to the same empirical data, and how the same operational contextuality may appear in different forms.
The violation of Bell inequalities seems to establish an important fact about the world: that it is non-local. However, this result relies on the assumption of the statistical independence of the measurement settings with respect to potential past events that might have determined them. Superdeterminism refers to the view that a local, and determinist, account of Bell inequalities violations is possible, by rejecting this assumption of statistical independence. We examine and clarify various problems with superdeterminism, looking in particular at its consequences on the nature of scientific laws and scientific reasoning. We argue that the view requires a neo-Humean account of at least some laws, and creates a significant problem for the use of statistical independence in other parts of physics and science more generally.
Relying on some auxiliary assumptions, usually considered mild, Bell’s theorem proves that no local theory can reproduce all the predictions of quantum mechanics. In this work, we introduce a fully local, superdeterministic model that by explicitly violating ‘settings independence’—one of these auxiliary assumptions, requiring statistical independence between measurement settings and systems to be measured—is able to reproduce all the predictions of quantum mechanics. Moreover, we show that contrary to widespread expectations, our model can break settings independence without an initial state that is too complex to handle, without visibly losing all explanatory power, and without outright nullifying all of experimental science. Still, we argue that our model is unnecessarily complicated and does not offer true advantages over its non-local competitors. We conclude that while our model does not appear to be a viable contender to its non-local counterparts, it provides the ideal framework to advance the debate over violations of statistical independence via the superdeterministic route.
Superdeterminism—where the Measurement Independence assumption in Bell’s Theorem is violated—is frequently assumed to imply implausibly conspiratorial correlations between properties λ of particles being measured and measurement settings x and y. But it does not have to be so: a superdeterministic but non-conspiratorial locally causal model is developed where each pair of entangled particles has unique λ. The model is based on a specific but arbitrarily fine discretisation of complex Hilbert space, where λ defines the information, over and above the freely chosen nominal settings x and y, which fixes the exact measurement settings X and Y of a run of a Bell experiment. Pearlean interventions, needed to assess whether x and y are Bell-type free variables, are shown to be inconsistent with rational-number constraints on the discretised Hilbert states. These constraints limit the post-hoc freedom to vary x keeping λ and y fixed but disappear with any coarse-graining of λ, X, and Y, rendering so-called drug-trial conspiracies irrelevant. Points in the discretised space can be realised as ensembles of symbolically labelled deterministic trajectories on an ‘all-at-once’ fractal attractor. It is shown how quantum mechanics might be ‘gloriously explained and derived’ as the singular continuum limit of the discretisation of Hilbert space. It is argued that the real message behind Bell’s Theorem has less to do with locality, realism, or freedom to choose, and more to do with the need to develop more explicitly holistic theories when attempting to synthesise quantum and gravitational physics.
In this dissertation, we explore two alternatives to quantum nonlocality in a single-universe framework: superdeterminism and retrocausality. These models circumvent Bell's theorem by violating the assumption that the hidden variables are uncorrelated with the measurement settings. In Chapter 1, we introduce superdeterminism and prepare the groundwork for our results in Chapter 2. We start from a review of the topic, focussing on the various qualitative criticisms raised against superdeterminism in the literature. We identify the criticism of 'superdeterministic conspiracy' by Bell as the most serious, and introduce nonequilibrium extensions of superdeterministic models in an attempt to formalise the criticism. We study the different properties of these models, and isolate two conspiratorial features. First, the measurement statistics depend on the physical system used to determine the measurement settings. Second, the formal no-signalling constraints are violated although there is no causal connection between the wings. We quantify in Chapter 2 the two conspiratorial features that we found in Chapter 1. We consider a Bell scenario where, in each run and at each wing, the experimenter chooses one of NNN devices to determine the local measurement setting. We then show that a superdeterministic model of the scenario has to finely tuned such that measurement statistics do not depend on the physical system used to determine the measurement settings. This quantifies the first form of conspiracy identified in Chapter 1 as a fine tuning. We also show that a superdeterministic model of the scenario requires arbitrarily large correlations, quantified in terms of a formal entropy drop and in terms of mutual information, to be set up by the initial conditions. Such correlations are required to ensure that the devices that the hidden variables are correlated with are coincidentally the same as the devices in fact used for every run at each wing. This quantifies the second form of conspiracy identified in Chapter 2 as an arbitrary large correlation. Nonlocal and retrocausal models turn out to be non-conspiratorial according to both approaches, thereby singling out `conspiracy' as a unique, problematic feature of superdeterminism. In Chapter 3, we change tracks to focus on retrocausality. Our results regarding retrocausal models are, in contrast to superdeterminism, positive. We first show how to construct a local, ψ\psiψ-epistemic hidden-variable model of Bell correlations with wavefunctions in physical space by a retrocausal adaptation of the originally superdeterministic model given by Brans. We show that, in non-equilibrium, the model generally violates no-signalling constraints while remaining local with respect to both ontology and interaction between particles. Lastly, we argue that our model shares some structural similarities with the modal class of interpretations of quantum mechanics. In Chapter 4, focus on the question whether retrocausal models can utilise their relativistic properties to account for relativistic effects on entangled systems. We consider a hypothetical relativistic Bell experiment, where one of the wings experiences time-dilation effects. We show that the retrocausal Brans model, introduced in Chapter 3, can be easily generalised to analyse this experiment, and that it predicts less separation of eigenpackets in the wing experiencing the time-dilation. This causes the particle distribution patterns on the photographic plates to differ between the wings -- an experimentally testable prediction of the model. We discuss the difficulties faced by other hidden variable models in describing this experiment, and their natural resolution in our model due to its relativistic properties. Lastly, we argue that it is not clear at present, due to technical difficulties, if our prediction is reproduced by quantum field theory. We conclude that if it is, then the retrocausal Brans model predicts the same result with great simplicity in comparison. If not, the model can be experimentally tested.