The estimation of fill probabilities for trade orders represents a key ingredient in the optimization of algorithmic trading strategies. It is bound by the complex dynamics of financial markets with inherent uncertainties, and the limitations of models aiming to learn from multivariate financial time series that often exhibit stochastic properties with hidden temporal patterns. In this paper, we focus on algorithmic responses to trade inquiries in the corporate bond market and investigate fill probability estimation errors of common machine learning models when given real production-scale intraday trade event data, transformed by a quantum algorithm running on IBM Heron processors, as well as on noiseless quantum simulators for comparison. We introduce a framework to embed these quantum-generated data transforms as a decoupled offline component that can be selectively queried by models in low-latency institutional trade optimization settings. A trade execution backtesting method is employed to evaluate the fill prediction performance of these models in relation to their input data. We observe a relative gain of up to ~ 34% in out-of-sample test scores for those models with access to quantum hardware-transformed data over those using the original trading data or transforms by noiseless quantum simulation. These empirical results suggest that the inherent noise in current quantum hardware contributes to this effect and motivates further studies. Our work demonstrates the emerging potential of quantum computing as a complementary explorative tool in quantitative finance and encourages applied industry research towards practical applications in trading.
The estimation of fill probabilities for trade orders represents a key ingredient in the optimization of algorithmic trading strategies. It is bound by the complex dynamics of financial markets with inherent uncertainties, and the limitations of models aiming to learn from multivariate financial time series that often exhibit stochastic properties with hidden temporal patterns. In this paper, we focus on algorithmic responses to trade inquiries in the corporate bond market and investigate fill probability estimation errors of common machine learning models when given real production-scale intraday trade event data, transformed by a quantum algorithm running on IBM Heron processors, as well as on noiseless quantum simulators for comparison. We introduce a framework to embed these quantum-generated data transforms as a decoupled offline component that can be selectively queried by models in low-latency institutional trade optimization settings. A trade execution backtesting method is employed to evaluate the fill prediction performance of these models in relation to their input data. We observe a relative gain of up to ~ 34% in out-of-sample test scores for those models with access to quantum hardware-transformed data over those using the original trading data or transforms by noiseless quantum simulation. These empirical results suggest that the inherent noise in current quantum hardware contributes to this effect and motivates further studies. Our work demonstrates the emerging potential of quantum computing as a complementary explorative tool in quantitative finance and encourages applied industry research towards practical applications in trading.
The growing complexity, interdependencies, and rapid fluctuations inherent in modern financial markets create substantial challenges for accurate forecasting, portfolio optimization, and risk management. Conventional machine learning techniques, while powerful, often face limitations in capturing nonlinear relationships and processing high-dimensional datasets efficiently. Quantum machine learning (QML) has emerged as a promising paradigm that leverages quantum computing principles to enhance predictive modeling in finance. This study presents a comprehensive investigation into the application of QML methods—including variational quantum circuits, quantum kernel estimation, and quantum-enhanced support vector machines—for financial time-series prediction and asset price classification. We propose a hybrid quantum-classical framework that integrates quantum feature mapping with classical optimizers to improve model expressiveness and convergence. Empirical experiments are conducted using historical stock market data and synthetic datasets to benchmark QML approaches against established classical models such as long short-term memory networks and gradient boosting machines. The results demonstrate that QML techniques can achieve superior prediction accuracy and lower computational latency under certain data regimes, particularly when dealing with small-to-medium-sized datasets and high feature correlations. Additionally, the study examines scalability considerations, hardware constraints of near-term quantum devices, and the interpretability of quantum model outputs in financial decision-making contexts. The findings underscore the transformative potential of quantum machine learning as an innovative tool for advancing predictive analytics in finance and provide practical insights into how financial institutions can begin integrating QML capabilities into their workflows.
Quantum computing has transitioned from a largely theoretical construct into a rapidly evolving technological paradigm with significant implications for computational finance and financial data science. This article presents a comprehensive and integrative research synthesis examining the convergence of quantum algorithms, quantum machine learning, and probabilistic modeling techniques—particularly determinantal point processes—in the context of financial optimization, risk management, asset pricing, and data-driven decision-making. Drawing exclusively from a curated body of foundational and contemporary literature, the study explores how quantum computational advantages may address long-standing computational bottlenecks in finance, including high-dimensional optimization, stochastic simulation, portfolio construction, and time-series forecasting under uncertainty. The article begins by situating quantum finance within the broader evolution of financial computation, emphasizing the limitations of classical Monte Carlo methods, convex optimization frameworks, and deep learning architectures when confronted with combinatorial complexity and structural constraints inherent in modern financial systems. It then provides an extensive theoretical elaboration of quantum algorithms relevant to finance, including amplitude estimation, quantum portfolio optimization, stochastic optimal stopping, and martingale-based asset pricing in incomplete markets. Particular attention is devoted to algorithmic primitives such as low-depth amplitude estimation and near-term implementations on noisy intermediate-scale quantum hardware, highlighting their feasibility and constraints. A substantial portion of the article is dedicated to quantum machine learning models and their classical counterparts, examining parameterized quantum circuits, quantum-enhanced feature spaces, Bayesian quantum neural networks, and subspace-based learning. These models are critically compared with established classical approaches such as random forests, orthogonal neural networks, and tree-based ensembles, especially in the context of tabular financial data. The discussion is further enriched by an in-depth theoretical treatment of determinantal point processes as a unifying probabilistic framework for diversity-aware sampling, feature selection, and data imputation, including their classical and emerging quantum formulations. By synthesizing insights across quantum algorithms, machine learning theory, and financial engineering, this article articulates both the transformative potential and the unresolved challenges of quantum finance. It concludes with a forward-looking discussion on scalability, hardware constraints, hybrid quantum-classical workflows, and the epistemic implications of adopting quantum models in financial decision-making. The work aims to serve as a foundational reference for researchers and practitioners seeking a deep theoretical understanding of quantum computational finance as an emerging interdisciplinary field.
Quantum Machine Learning (QML) prediction of stock values is on the verge of changing the financial market and particularly enhancing HFT techniques. This is an attempt at quantum computing-machine learning hybrid aimed at enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of trading decisions. The historical machine learning-based stock price prediction models are incapable of processing large volumes of data, executing trades faster, and modeling complex market dynamics in real-time. The challenges result in ineffective trading decisions and trade lags at high frequencies. These problems are solved by HFT Optimization and Quantum Machine Learning. Because quantum computing capability is processing large amounts of data simultaneously, the proposed architecture enhances prediction accuracy and speed while reducing latency of decision-making. Quantum Neural Networks (QNNs) and quantum-optimized algorithms are useful to boost the modeling of market behavior. This technology will enhance stock price forecasting and optimization of trading strategies, which increases profit and minimize risk. Initial evidence indicates that quantum-based HFT systems are faster in execution speed and market flexibility than conventional techniques, which is essential to the future of automated trading.
Stock market forecasting remains one of the most computationally demanding tasks in financial engineering, requiring sophisticated models capable of processing nonlinear patterns, high-frequency volatility, and large volumes of time-series data. Recent advancements in quantum computing offer the potential to surpass classical machine learning (ML) by leveraging principles such as superposition and entanglement to accelerate learning and optimization. This paper conducts a comprehensive comparison between quantum machine learning (QML) models and classical deep learning architectures for stock price prediction, emphasizing the technological improvements and optimization of computational methods. Our analysis integrates insights from prior studies, including the application of quantum-enhanced Gramian Angular Fields with CNNs [2], shallow parameterized quantum circuits for market indicators [4], and hybrid quantum-classical algorithms tailored to finance [1]. Experimental evaluation (using IBM Qiskit's quantum simulators and real hardware) demonstrates competitive performance of quantum neural networks (QNNs) against state-of-the-art recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) architectures [3]. Across AAPL/MSFT and short horizons, compact QNNs match strong LSTM baselines while using an order of magnitude fewer parameters, and—critically—transfer from calibrated simulators to IBM hardware with marginal degradation after mitigation. This device-aware training/evaluation loop exemplifies a deployable path for financial QML under realistic noise and resource constraints and motivates standardized, time-series-aware testing for the community. Results highlight the engineering value of quantum acceleration in feature encoding, the research novelty of hybrid ensemble strategies, and the future scope of benchmarking across leading quantum computing machines such as IBM, Google Sycamore, Rigetti, IonQ, and Xanadu.
Quantum finance, as a key application scenario of quantum computing, showcases multiple significant advantages of quantum machine learning over traditional machine learning methods. This paper first aims to overcome the limitations of the hidden quantum Markov model (HQMM) in handling continuous data and proposes an innovative method to convert continuous data into discrete-time sequence data. Second, a hybrid quantum computing model is developed to forecast stock market trends. The model was used to predict 15 stock indices from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges between June 2018 and June 2021. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed quantum model outperforms classical algorithmic models in handling higher complexity, achieving improved efficiency, reduced computation time, and superior predictive performance. This validation of quantum advantage in financial forecasting enables the practical deployment of quantum-inspired prediction models by investors and institutions in trading environments. This quantum-enhanced model empowers investors to predict market regimes (bullish/bearish/range-bound) using real-time data, enabling dynamic portfolio adjustments, optimized risk controls, and data-driven allocation shifts.
This article explores the transformative role of quantum-inspired AI in optimizing financial practices, particularly within high-frequency trading (HFT) in the financial sector. As HFT operates in an environment of rapid transactions and significant market volatility, the need for advanced optimization techniques becomes paramount. Quantum-inspired algorithms leverage principles from quantum mechanics, such as superposition and tunneling, to enhance various aspects of trading strategies. These algorithms enable rapid optimization of asset allocation, real-time trade execution, and proactive fraud detection, effectively addressing the challenges posed by traditional financial models. By facilitating simultaneous evaluation of multiple strategies and enabling real-time analysis of complex trading patterns, quantum-inspired AI significantly improves decision-making speed and accuracy. The financial implications of this advancement are profound, leading to higher profitability, improved market integrity, and enhanced trust among market participants. Ultimately, integrating quantum-inspired AI in finance represents a crucial step towards harnessing cutting-edge technology to reshape trading dynamics, paving the way for innovative strategies that can adapt to the evolving landscape of financial markets. This study underscores the potential of quantum-inspired AI to redefine operational efficiency in finance, ensuring competitiveness in an increasingly complex trading environment.