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arXiv:2503.01884 · Scientific Reports

Contextual quantum neural networks for stock price prediction

Sharan Mourya, Hannes Leipold, Bibhas Adhikari

Published Jan 7, 2026• 6 citations
arXivHTMLPDF

Abstract

In this paper, we apply quantum machine learning (QML) to predict the distribution of stock prices of multiple assets using a contextual quantum neural network. Our approach captures recent trends to predict future stock price distributions, moving beyond traditional models that focus on entire historical data. Utilizing the principles of quantum superposition, we introduce a new training technique called the quantum batch gradient update (QBGU), which accelerates the standard stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in quantum applications and improves convergence. Consequently, we propose a quantum multi-task learning (QMTL) architecture, specifically, the share-and-specify ansatz, that integrates task-specific operators controlled by quantum labels, enabling the simultaneous and efficient training of multiple assets on the same quantum circuit as well as enabling efficient portfolio representation with logarithmic overhead in the number of qubits. Through extensive experimentation on S&P 500 data for Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon stocks, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms quantum single-task learning (QSTL) models by effectively capturing inter-asset correlations. Our findings highlight the transformative potential of QML in financial applications, paving the way for more advanced, resource-efficient quantum algorithms in stock price prediction and other complex financial modeling tasks.

DOI
10.1038/s41598-025-34413-5

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In this paper, we apply quantum machine learning (QML) to predict the distribution of stock prices of multiple assets using a contextual quantum neural network. Our approach captures recent trends to predict future stock price distributions, moving beyond traditional models that focus on entire historical data. Utilizing the principles of quantum superposition, we introduce a new training technique called the quantum batch gradient update (QBGU), which accelerates the standard stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in quantum applications and improves convergence. Consequently, we propose a quantum multi-task learning (QMTL) architecture, specifically, the share-and-specify ansatz, that integrates task-specific operators controlled by quantum labels, enabling the simultaneous and efficient training of multiple assets on the same quantum circuit as well as enabling efficient portfolio representation with logarithmic overhead in the number of qubits. Through extensive experimentation on S&P 500 data for Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon stocks, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms quantum single-task learning (QSTL) models by effectively capturing inter-asset correlations. Our findings highlight the transformative potential of QML in financial applications, paving the way for more advanced, resource-efficient quantum algorithms in stock price prediction and other complex financial modeling tasks.
The growing complexity, interdependencies, and rapid fluctuations inherent in modern financial markets create substantial challenges for accurate forecasting, portfolio optimization, and risk management. Conventional machine learning techniques, while powerful, often face limitations in capturing nonlinear relationships and processing high-dimensional datasets efficiently. Quantum machine learning (QML) has emerged as a promising paradigm that leverages quantum computing principles to enhance predictive modeling in finance. This study presents a comprehensive investigation into the application of QML methods—including variational quantum circuits, quantum kernel estimation, and quantum-enhanced support vector machines—for financial time-series prediction and asset price classification. We propose a hybrid quantum-classical framework that integrates quantum feature mapping with classical optimizers to improve model expressiveness and convergence. Empirical experiments are conducted using historical stock market data and synthetic datasets to benchmark QML approaches against established classical models such as long short-term memory networks and gradient boosting machines. The results demonstrate that QML techniques can achieve superior prediction accuracy and lower computational latency under certain data regimes, particularly when dealing with small-to-medium-sized datasets and high feature correlations. Additionally, the study examines scalability considerations, hardware constraints of near-term quantum devices, and the interpretability of quantum model outputs in financial decision-making contexts. The findings underscore the transformative potential of quantum machine learning as an innovative tool for advancing predictive analytics in finance and provide practical insights into how financial institutions can begin integrating QML capabilities into their workflows.
Quantum Machine Learning (QML) prediction of stock values is on the verge of changing the financial market and particularly enhancing HFT techniques. This is an attempt at quantum computing-machine learning hybrid aimed at enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of trading decisions. The historical machine learning-based stock price prediction models are incapable of processing large volumes of data, executing trades faster, and modeling complex market dynamics in real-time. The challenges result in ineffective trading decisions and trade lags at high frequencies. These problems are solved by HFT Optimization and Quantum Machine Learning. Because quantum computing capability is processing large amounts of data simultaneously, the proposed architecture enhances prediction accuracy and speed while reducing latency of decision-making. Quantum Neural Networks (QNNs) and quantum-optimized algorithms are useful to boost the modeling of market behavior. This technology will enhance stock price forecasting and optimization of trading strategies, which increases profit and minimize risk. Initial evidence indicates that quantum-based HFT systems are faster in execution speed and market flexibility than conventional techniques, which is essential to the future of automated trading.
Stock market forecasting remains one of the most computationally demanding tasks in financial engineering, requiring sophisticated models capable of processing nonlinear patterns, high-frequency volatility, and large volumes of time-series data. Recent advancements in quantum computing offer the potential to surpass classical machine learning (ML) by leveraging principles such as superposition and entanglement to accelerate learning and optimization. This paper conducts a comprehensive comparison between quantum machine learning (QML) models and classical deep learning architectures for stock price prediction, emphasizing the technological improvements and optimization of computational methods. Our analysis integrates insights from prior studies, including the application of quantum-enhanced Gramian Angular Fields with CNNs [2], shallow parameterized quantum circuits for market indicators [4], and hybrid quantum-classical algorithms tailored to finance [1]. Experimental evaluation (using IBM Qiskit's quantum simulators and real hardware) demonstrates competitive performance of quantum neural networks (QNNs) against state-of-the-art recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) architectures [3]. Across AAPL/MSFT and short horizons, compact QNNs match strong LSTM baselines while using an order of magnitude fewer parameters, and—critically—transfer from calibrated simulators to IBM hardware with marginal degradation after mitigation. This device-aware training/evaluation loop exemplifies a deployable path for financial QML under realistic noise and resource constraints and motivates standardized, time-series-aware testing for the community. Results highlight the engineering value of quantum acceleration in feature encoding, the research novelty of hybrid ensemble strategies, and the future scope of benchmarking across leading quantum computing machines such as IBM, Google Sycamore, Rigetti, IonQ, and Xanadu.
This paper investigates the application of Quantum Generative Adversarial Networks (QGANs) for stock price prediction. Financial markets are inherently complex, marked by high volatility and intricate patterns that traditional models often fail to capture. QGANs, leveraging the power of quantum computing, offer a novel approach by combining the strengths of generative models with quantum machine learning techniques. We implement a QGAN model tailored for stock price prediction and evaluate its performance using historical market data. Results demonstrate that QGANs can generate synthetic data closely resembling actual market behavior, leading to enhanced prediction accuracy. The experiment was conducted using stock index price data and the AWS Braket SV1 simulator for training QGAN circuits. The quantum-enhanced model outperforms classical LSTM and GAN models in both convergence speed and prediction accuracy. This research marks a key step toward integrating quantum computing in financial forecasting, offering potential advantages in speed and precision over traditional methods. These findings hold promising implications for traders, financial analysts, and researchers.
Financial markets generate complex, high-dimensional time series characterized by nonlinearity, noise, and structural uncertainty, posing persistent challenges for classical machine learning and statistical forecasting models. This paper examines quantum machine learning (QML) architectures for stock market forecasting, anomaly detection, and pattern recognition in financial time series. By leveraging quantum phenomena such as superposition, entanglement, and quantum-enhanced feature spaces, QML models offer new computational paradigms for capturing intricate market dynamics and latent structures. The study synthesizes recent advances in quantum neural networks, variational quantum circuits, and hybrid quantum–classical models, evaluating their applicability to predictive modeling and risk-sensitive detection tasks in finance. The paper argues that QML architectures have the potential to complement classical approaches by improving representational capacity and scalability for complex financial data, while also outlining current technical limitations and research directions necessary for practical deployment.
Financial markets, particularly equity indices like the SP 500, exhibit complex, nonlinear, and frequently chaotic behaviors driven by a combination of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and psychological factors. Traditional machine learning techniques, despite their notable success in modeling market trends, often encounter performance limitations when dealing with high-dimensional feature spaces and intricate historical dependencies. Quantum computing offers a promising approach for addressing these challenges through its ability to represent and process information in superposition states. This study proposes and implements a quantum neural network (QNN) architecture that utilizes angle encoding to embed carefully engineered features, including volatility measures, momentum indicators, and lagged price signals, into quantum states. These encoded features are processed through a customized quantum circuit comprising three variational layers that combine linear entanglement patterns with single-qubit rotation operations. The training process is conducted via gradient-based optimization through the PennyLane framework, operating within a noiseless simulation environment to establish theoretical performance bounds. The experimental results demonstrate that the QNN achieves an accuracy of 81.3% on the held-out test set in simulation, outperforming traditional baseline models including Long Short-Term Memory networks, Random Forest classifiers, and Support Vector Machines under identical conditions. The model exhibits balanced precision (0.83) and recall (0.79). While the experiments were conducted in simulation due to current quantum hardware limitations, the findings illustrate the potential of quantum-enhanced algorithms for financial forecasting applications. Keywords Quantum Neural Networks, Financial Forecasting, SP 500, Variational Quantum Circuits, Time Series Prediction.