We present a classical algorithm based on Pauli propagation for estimating expectation values of arbitrary observables on random unstructured quantum circuits across all circuit architectures and depths, including those with all-to-all connectivity. We prove that, for any architecture where each circuit layer is randomly sampled from a distribution invariant under single-qubit rotations, our algorithm achieves a small error ϵ on all circuits except for a small fraction δ. The computational time is polynomial in qubit count and circuit depth for any small constant ϵ, δ and quasipolynomial for inverse-polynomially small ϵ, δ. Our results show that estimating observables of quantum circuits exhibiting chaotic and locally scrambling behavior is classically tractable across all geometries.
We present a classical algorithm based on Pauli propagation for estimating expectation values of arbitrary observables on random unstructured quantum circuits across all circuit architectures and depths, including those with all-to-all connectivity. We prove that, for any architecture where each circuit layer is randomly sampled from a distribution invariant under single-qubit rotations, our algorithm achieves a small error ϵ on all circuits except for a small fraction δ. The computational time is polynomial in qubit count and circuit depth for any small constant ϵ, δ and quasipolynomial for inverse-polynomially small ϵ, δ. Our results show that estimating observables of quantum circuits exhibiting chaotic and locally scrambling behavior is classically tractable across all geometries.
We present a polynomial-time classical algorithm for estimating expectation values of arbitrary observables on typical quantum circuits under any incoherent local noise, including non-unital or dephasing. Although previous research demonstrated that some carefully designed quantum circuits affected by non-unital noise cannot be efficiently simulated, we show that this does not apply to average-case circuits, as these can be efficiently simulated using Pauli-path methods. Specifically, we prove that, with high probability over the circuit gates’ choice, Pauli propagation algorithms with tailored truncation strategies achieve an inversely polynomially small simulation error. This result holds for arbitrary circuit topologies and for any local noise, under the assumption that the distribution of each circuit layer is invariant under single-qubit random gates. Under the same minimal assumptions, we also prove that most noisy circuits can be truncated to an effective logarithmic depth for the task of estimating expectation values of observables, thus generalizing prior results to a significantly broader class of circuit ensembles. We further numerically validate our algorithm with simulations on a 6 × 6 lattice of qubits under the effects of amplitude damping and dephasing noise, as well as real-time dynamics on an 11 × 11 lattice of qubits affected by amplitude damping.
We provide a polynomial-time classical algorithm for noisy quantum circuits. The algorithm computes the expectation value of any observable for any circuit, with a small average error over input states drawn from an ensemble (e.g., the computational basis). Our approach is based upon the intuition that noise exponentially damps nonlocal correlations relative to local correlations. This enables one to classically simulate a noisy quantum circuit by keeping track of only the dynamics of local quantum information. Our algorithm also enables sampling from the output distribution of a circuit in quasipolynomial time, so long as the distribution anticoncentrates. A number of implications are discussed, including a fundamental limit on the efficacy of noise mitigation strategies: For constant noise rates, any quantum circuit for which error mitigation succeeds in polynomial-time on most input states can also be classically simulated in polynomial-time on most input states. Our algorithms scale exponentially in the inverse noise rate, which is fundamental and makes them impractical for current quantum devices.
As quantum devices grow in size while remaining affected by noise, a key challenge is to determine when and how they can surpass classical computation on practical tasks. This requires the development of highly efficient classical simulation algorithms. Pauli backpropagation algorithms are among the most promising, having shown efficiency in simulating certain classes of parameterized quantum circuits, strong candidates for near‑term quantum advantage, under random circuit assumptions and depolarizing noise. However, their efficiency had not been demonstrated for more realistic nonunital noise models, such as amplitude damping, which better capture the behaviour of current hardware. We close this gap by adapting Pauli backpropagation to most single‑qubit noise channels, including nonunital noise, and proving that it remains efficient under these conditions. Our algorithm is parallelizable, memory‑efficient, and requires no assumptions on the locality of the observable, the geometry of the hardware, or the depth of the circuit. While hardware noise can strongly affect computational power in highly structured, fault‑tolerant circuits, our findings indicate little difference for most near‑term variational architectures. This establishes Pauli backpropagation as an efficient method for simulating noisy quantum devices under realistic noise assumptions.While these advances improve our ability to reproduce noisy expectation values of observables, many practical applications, including combinatorial optimization, require direct access to the bitstrings output by quantum circuits, as these encode candidate solutions. Classical replication of such noisy samples has so far been limited beyond the random circuit setting. To bridge this gap, we first focus on problems whose objective functions depend only on two‑body correlations, such as Max‑Cut, and apply Gaussian randomized rounding to the circuit's two‑qubit marginals. This produces classical samples whose expected cost is provably close to that of the noisy quantum device. Large‑scale simulations and experiments on IBMQ hardware confirm that the rounded samples reproduce the full energy distribution, with similar behaviour under various noise models. Coupled with Pauli backpropagation for efficiently estimating noisy marginals, this yields an end‑to‑end classical sampler operating in polynomial time for a broad class of variational circuits. Our results therefore show that sufficiently noisy quantum circuits for combinatorial optimization can be sampled from classically, clarifying where near‑term hardware may or may not outperform classical algorithms.Finally , we go beyond one and two‑body marginals and present an algorithm that samples valid bitstrings directly from a maximum‑entropy distribution matching the given expectation values of the quantum circuit. This method does not rely on the locality or sparsity of the problem's Hamiltonian and performs well across a variety of quantum circuits, including deep circuits on many qubits. When combined with Pauli propagation or error mitigation, it provides a practical pipeline for obtaining samples from quantum circuits in the near term, where full error correction might not yet be available.
Noise detrimentally affects quantum computations so that they not only become less accurate but also easier to simulate classically as systems scale up. We construct a classical simulation algorithm, lowesa (low weight efficient simulation algorithm), for estimating expectation values of noisy parameterised quantum circuits with a fixed observable. It combines previous results on spectral analysis of parameterised circuits with Pauli back-propagation and recent ideas for simulations of noisy random circuits. We show, under some conditions on the circuits and mild assumptions on noise, that lowesa gives an efficient, polynomial algorithm in the number of qubits (and depth), with approximation error that vanishes exponentially in the physical error rate and a controllable cutoff parameter. This is valid for any expectation value that may be efficiently evaluated on a quantum computer. We discuss the practical limitations of the method for circuit classes with correlated parameters and its scaling with decreasing error rates.
Quantum noise is a central challenge in quantum computing across many applications. Extensive work has examined how qubits couple to their environment, leading to decoherence and irreversible relaxation. This work studies a continuous coherent noise model for quantum circuits and compares it with a discrete Pauli model. The focus is on small, coherent gate errors that accumulate across circuit depth. These errors are modeled as random rotations on the Bloch sphere using a von Mises-Fisher distribution. In the small-angle limit, the model reduces to an isotropic Gaussian distribution. We test the model on quantum error-correction circuits based on the [[5,1,3]] and [[7,1,3]] codes. A variant of Grover's search circuit with different qubit counts is also examined. To enable fair comparison, we introduce a model-independent matching scheme. Pauli and continuous noise channels are aligned using the binary entropy at readout. This isolates the effect of noise structure at fixed uncertainty. An approximate analytical method for the propagation of coherent errors is also developed. The method tracks error distributions both on Clifford and non-Clifford circuits without full Monte Carlo sampling. It reduces simulation cost while preserving accuracy for circuit-level error estimates. The approximation is validated against brute-force simulations, identifying its regime of validity with Clifford and non-Clifford circuits under error correction. Our results show that continuous coherent noise and Pauli noise lead to comparable logical-error trends in the stabilizer-code circuits studied here. This behavior is consistent with syndrome extraction projecting a general single-qubit error onto Pauli-error subspaces before recovery. They also show where simplified propagation models work well and where their accuracy is reduced.
Quantum circuits with a constant rate of depolarizing noise per qubit per time step are known to converge to the uniform distribution at depth ω(p−1logn), and hence become trivially classically simulable by uniform sampling. We show that under the physically natural constraint of geometric locality, noisy circuits become classically simulable at shallower depths by substantially more structured classical algorithms. We consider arbitrary geometrically local quantum circuits on n qubits, initialized in an arbitrary product state, with nearest-neighbor gates in O(1) spatial dimensions and interspersed depolarizing noise of any constant strength p. Our first result is that when the depth exceeds a threshold d∗=Θ(p−1logn), the output distribution can be approximately sampled in quasipolynomial time. This gives a worst-case simulability result for noisy geometrically local circuits, and matches in its n-dependence the best previously known results for noisy random circuits. The proof is based on new information-theoretic bounds showing that in geometrically local noisy circuits, local regions lose correlations and independently converge to maximally mixed strictly before the entire system converges to the uniform distribution. We further prove structural results suggesting a sharper transition at depth Θ~(p−1): after coarse-graining the lattice, Pauli weight supported on long connected paths can be truncated with exponentially small error. These results provide evidence for a percolation-like mechanism behind classical simulability at constant depth, and motivate our conjecture that all noisy geometrically local circuits admit quasipolynomial-time approximate sampling once circuit depth exceeds Θ~(p−1).