We provide a polynomial-time classical algorithm for noisy quantum circuits. The algorithm computes the expectation value of any observable for any circuit, with a small average error over input states drawn from an ensemble (e.g., the computational basis). Our approach is based upon the intuition that noise exponentially damps nonlocal correlations relative to local correlations. This enables one to classically simulate a noisy quantum circuit by keeping track of only the dynamics of local quantum information. Our algorithm also enables sampling from the output distribution of a circuit in quasipolynomial time, so long as the distribution anticoncentrates. A number of implications are discussed, including a fundamental limit on the efficacy of noise mitigation strategies: For constant noise rates, any quantum circuit for which error mitigation succeeds in polynomial-time on most input states can also be classically simulated in polynomial-time on most input states. Our algorithms scale exponentially in the inverse noise rate, which is fundamental and makes them impractical for current quantum devices.
We provide a polynomial-time classical algorithm for noisy quantum circuits. The algorithm computes the expectation value of any observable for any circuit, with a small average error over input states drawn from an ensemble (e.g., the computational basis). Our approach is based upon the intuition that noise exponentially damps nonlocal correlations relative to local correlations. This enables one to classically simulate a noisy quantum circuit by keeping track of only the dynamics of local quantum information. Our algorithm also enables sampling from the output distribution of a circuit in quasipolynomial time, so long as the distribution anticoncentrates. A number of implications are discussed, including a fundamental limit on the efficacy of noise mitigation strategies: For constant noise rates, any quantum circuit for which error mitigation succeeds in polynomial-time on most input states can also be classically simulated in polynomial-time on most input states. Our algorithms scale exponentially in the inverse noise rate, which is fundamental and makes them impractical for current quantum devices.
Noise detrimentally affects quantum computations so that they not only become less accurate but also easier to simulate classically as systems scale up. We construct a classical simulation algorithm, lowesa (low weight efficient simulation algorithm), for estimating expectation values of noisy parameterised quantum circuits with a fixed observable. It combines previous results on spectral analysis of parameterised circuits with Pauli back-propagation and recent ideas for simulations of noisy random circuits. We show, under some conditions on the circuits and mild assumptions on noise, that lowesa gives an efficient, polynomial algorithm in the number of qubits (and depth), with approximation error that vanishes exponentially in the physical error rate and a controllable cutoff parameter. This is valid for any expectation value that may be efficiently evaluated on a quantum computer. We discuss the practical limitations of the method for circuit classes with correlated parameters and its scaling with decreasing error rates.
We present a polynomial-time classical algorithm for estimating expectation values of arbitrary observables on typical quantum circuits under any incoherent local noise, including non-unital or dephasing. Although previous research demonstrated that some carefully designed quantum circuits affected by non-unital noise cannot be efficiently simulated, we show that this does not apply to average-case circuits, as these can be efficiently simulated using Pauli-path methods. Specifically, we prove that, with high probability over the circuit gates’ choice, Pauli propagation algorithms with tailored truncation strategies achieve an inversely polynomially small simulation error. This result holds for arbitrary circuit topologies and for any local noise, under the assumption that the distribution of each circuit layer is invariant under single-qubit random gates. Under the same minimal assumptions, we also prove that most noisy circuits can be truncated to an effective logarithmic depth for the task of estimating expectation values of observables, thus generalizing prior results to a significantly broader class of circuit ensembles. We further numerically validate our algorithm with simulations on a 6 × 6 lattice of qubits under the effects of amplitude damping and dephasing noise, as well as real-time dynamics on an 11 × 11 lattice of qubits affected by amplitude damping.
While quantum computing can accomplish tasks that are classically intractable, the presence of noise may destroy this advantage in the absence of fault tolerance. In this work, we present a classical algorithm that runs in npolylog(n) time for simulating quantum circuits under local depolarizing noise, thereby ruling out their quantum advantage in these settings. Our algorithm leverages a property called approximate Markovianity to sequentially sample from the measurement outcome distribution of noisy circuits. We establish approximate Markovianity in a broad range of circuits: (1) we prove that it holds for any circuit when the noise rate exceeds a constant threshold, and (2) we provide strong analytical and numerical evidence that it holds for random quantum circuits subject to any constant noise rate. These regimes include previously known classically simulable cases as well as new ones, such as shallow random circuits without anticoncentration, where prior algorithms fail. Taken together, our results significantly extend the boundary of classical simulability and suggest that noise generically enforces approximate Markovianity and classical simulability, thereby highlighting the limitation of noisy quantum circuits in demonstrating quantum advantage.
Efficient classical simulation of noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) circuits has been a topic of intense study over the past few years. The majority of results on efficient simulation assume that the circuits undergo some variant of unital noise or involve sufficient randomness. However, there are limited results for circuits undergoing non-unital noise in the absence of randomness. In this work, we present a polynomial-time classical algorithm to sample from the output distributions of amplitude-damped instantaneous quantum polynomial (IQP) circuits. Our algorithm works for circuits generated by arbitrary l-local diagonal gates with depth d=Ω(log(n)), undergoing constant amplitude-damping noise.
As quantum devices grow in size while remaining affected by noise, a key challenge is to determine when and how they can surpass classical computation on practical tasks. This requires the development of highly efficient classical simulation algorithms. Pauli backpropagation algorithms are among the most promising, having shown efficiency in simulating certain classes of parameterized quantum circuits, strong candidates for near‑term quantum advantage, under random circuit assumptions and depolarizing noise. However, their efficiency had not been demonstrated for more realistic nonunital noise models, such as amplitude damping, which better capture the behaviour of current hardware. We close this gap by adapting Pauli backpropagation to most single‑qubit noise channels, including nonunital noise, and proving that it remains efficient under these conditions. Our algorithm is parallelizable, memory‑efficient, and requires no assumptions on the locality of the observable, the geometry of the hardware, or the depth of the circuit. While hardware noise can strongly affect computational power in highly structured, fault‑tolerant circuits, our findings indicate little difference for most near‑term variational architectures. This establishes Pauli backpropagation as an efficient method for simulating noisy quantum devices under realistic noise assumptions.While these advances improve our ability to reproduce noisy expectation values of observables, many practical applications, including combinatorial optimization, require direct access to the bitstrings output by quantum circuits, as these encode candidate solutions. Classical replication of such noisy samples has so far been limited beyond the random circuit setting. To bridge this gap, we first focus on problems whose objective functions depend only on two‑body correlations, such as Max‑Cut, and apply Gaussian randomized rounding to the circuit's two‑qubit marginals. This produces classical samples whose expected cost is provably close to that of the noisy quantum device. Large‑scale simulations and experiments on IBMQ hardware confirm that the rounded samples reproduce the full energy distribution, with similar behaviour under various noise models. Coupled with Pauli backpropagation for efficiently estimating noisy marginals, this yields an end‑to‑end classical sampler operating in polynomial time for a broad class of variational circuits. Our results therefore show that sufficiently noisy quantum circuits for combinatorial optimization can be sampled from classically, clarifying where near‑term hardware may or may not outperform classical algorithms.Finally , we go beyond one and two‑body marginals and present an algorithm that samples valid bitstrings directly from a maximum‑entropy distribution matching the given expectation values of the quantum circuit. This method does not rely on the locality or sparsity of the problem's Hamiltonian and performs well across a variety of quantum circuits, including deep circuits on many qubits. When combined with Pauli propagation or error mitigation, it provides a practical pipeline for obtaining samples from quantum circuits in the near term, where full error correction might not yet be available.
Developing classical simulation algorithms for noisy quantum circuits is essential to delineating the limits of quantum advantage. Existing classical sampling approaches for general circuits require circuit depths to grow logarithmically with system size, so that noise drives the global output state close to a trivial state. Here we show that local accumulation of noise at a depth independent of system size is already sufficient. Specifically, we prove that any geometrically local circuit composed of unital operations and interspersed with single-qubit depolarizing noise of strength p after Θ(p−1logp−1) depth can be approximately sampled from a polynomial-time classical computer. This generalizes existing results that impose anticoncentration assumptions or non-universal gate sets in order to obtain a classical sampler at such shallow depths. Our proof maps the output state of the circuit to a polymer model in statistical mechanics, and combines a convergent cluster expansion with hypercontractivity of the depolarizing channel.