Forecasting in probabilistic time series is a complex endeavor that extends beyond predicting future values to also quantifying the uncertainty inherent in these predictions. Gaussian process regression stands out as a Bayesian machine learning technique adept at addressing this multifaceted challenge. This paper introduces a novel approach that blends the robustness of this Bayesian technique with the nuanced insights provided by the kernel perspective on quantum models, aimed at advancing quantum kernelized probabilistic forecasting. We incorporate a quantum feature map inspired by Ising interactions and demonstrate its effectiveness in capturing the temporal dependencies critical for precise forecasting. The optimization of our model's hyperparameters circumvents the need for computationally intensive gradient descent by employing gradient-free Bayesian optimization. Comparative benchmarks against established classical kernel models are provided, affirming that our quantum-enhanced approach achieves competitive performance.
Forecasting in probabilistic time series is a complex endeavor that extends beyond predicting future values to also quantifying the uncertainty inherent in these predictions. Gaussian process regression stands out as a Bayesian machine learning technique adept at addressing this multifaceted challenge. This paper introduces a novel approach that blends the robustness of this Bayesian technique with the nuanced insights provided by the kernel perspective on quantum models, aimed at advancing quantum kernelized probabilistic forecasting. We incorporate a quantum feature map inspired by Ising interactions and demonstrate its effectiveness in capturing the temporal dependencies critical for precise forecasting. The optimization of our model's hyperparameters circumvents the need for computationally intensive gradient descent by employing gradient-free Bayesian optimization. Comparative benchmarks against established classical kernel models are provided, affirming that our quantum-enhanced approach achieves competitive performance.
Abstract Gaussian process regression is a well-established Bayesian machine learning method. We propose a new approach to Gaussian process regression using quantum kernels based on parameterized quantum circuits. By employing a hardware-efficient feature map and careful regularization of the Gram matrix, we demonstrate that the variance information of the resulting quantum Gaussian process can be preserved. We also show that quantum Gaussian processes can be used as a surrogate model for Bayesian optimization, a task that critically relies on the variance of the surrogate model. To demonstrate the performance of this quantum Bayesian optimization algorithm, we apply it to the hyperparameter optimization of a machine learning model which performs regression on a real-world dataset. We benchmark the quantum Bayesian optimization against its classical counterpart and show that quantum version can match its performance.
Time series forecasting is a critical problem with applications in various fields, such as finance, energy, and environmental science. While classical machine learning methods have shown significant progress in this domain, the advent of quantum machine learning introduces a new perspective to address the complexities of time series prediction. In this research, we propose a novel Quantum Neural Network (QNN) approach for time series forecasting, leveraging the unique capabilities of quantum computing to capture intricate temporal dependencies and exploit quantum parallelism. By encoding time series data into quantum states and designing quantum circuits for processing, the QNN aims to achieve improved predictive accuracy compared to classical neural networks. Through extensive experiments on diverse time series datasets, we demonstrate the potential of our QNN framework and discuss the future prospects of quantum-powered time series prediction in real-world applications.
Abstract Variational quantum machine learning algorithms have been proposed as promising tools for time series prediction, with the potential to handle complex sequential data more effectively than classical approaches. However, their practical advantage over established classical methods remains uncertain. In this work, we present a comprehensive benchmark study comparing a range of variational quantum algorithms (VQAs) and classical machine learning models for time series forecasting. We evaluate their predictive performance on three chaotic systems across 27 time series prediction tasks of varying complexity, and ensure a fair comparison through extensive hyperparameter optimization. Our results indicate that, in many cases, quantum models struggle to match the accuracy of simple classical counterparts of comparable complexity. Furthermore, we analyze the predictive performance relative to the model complexity and discuss the practical limitations of VQAs for time series forecasting.
Time series forecasting remains a significant challenge in various domains, including finance, weather prediction, and industrial process control. Traditional neural networks, particularly recurrent neural networks (RNNs), often struggle to effectively capture the intricate temporal dependencies inherent in time series data. This paper proposes a novel approach leveraging quantum-inspired algorithms to optimize RNNs for improved time series forecasting performance. Specifically, we explore the utilization of quantum annealing techniques to adjust the weights within an RNN architecture. This approach mimics key quantum principles, such as superposition and interference, to potentially enhance the network's ability to represent and predict complex temporal patterns. The core claim of this work is that classical neural networks, particularly RNNs, are limited in their ability to model temporal dependencies. We introduce a mechanism where quantum-inspired algorithms, particularly quantum annealing, are employed to optimize the weights of RNNs. The underlying principles of superposition and interference are leveraged to capture more complex temporal patterns. The results demonstrate the potential of this quantum-inspired approach to achieving superior forecasting accuracy compared to conventional RNNs.
Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a nonparametric supervised learning method, widely valued for its ability to quantify uncertainty. Despite its advantages and broad applications, classical GPR implementations face significant scalability challenges, as they involve matrix operations with a cubic complexity in relation to the dataset size. This computational challenge is further compounded by the demand of optimizing the Gaussian Process (GP) model over its hyperparameters, rendering the total computational cost prohibitive for data intensive problems. To address this issue, we propose a quantum gradient descent algorithm to optimize the GP model. Taking advantage of recent advances in quantum algorithms for linear algebra, our algorithm achieves exponential speedup in computing the gradients of the log marginal likelihood. The entire gradient descent process is integrated into the quantum circuit. Through runtime analysis and error bounds, we demonstrate that our approach significantly improves the scalability of GPR model optimization, making it computationally feasible for large-scale applications.
Time-series forecasting is vital across sectors such as finance, energy, and environmental science, where accurate future predictions drive informed decision-making. Traditional statistical methods and deep learning models like LSTM and Transformers, while effective, often struggle with high-dimensional data and long-term dependencies. In this paper, we propose a hybrid quantum-classical model that utilizes Parameterized Quantum Circuits (PQCs) to capture complex temporal patterns in multivariate time-series data. Our architecture integrates a classical encoder, a quantum variational processor, and a classical decoder, trained end-to-end using gradient-based optimization. Experiments conducted on benchmark datasets—electricity load, stock prices, and weather forecasting—demonstrate that the hybrid model consistently outperforms classical baselines in terms of Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R² score. Robustness analysis confirms the model’s resilience to moderate quantum noise, while an ablation study highlights the performance gain from quantum components. This work showcases the potential of hybrid quantum-classical approaches on Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) devices and lays a foundation for scalable, real-world quantum machine learning applications.