Abstract Variational quantum machine learning algorithms have been proposed as promising tools for time series prediction, with the potential to handle complex sequential data more effectively than classical approaches. However, their practical advantage over established classical methods remains uncertain. In this work, we present a comprehensive benchmark study comparing a range of variational quantum algorithms (VQAs) and classical machine learning models for time series forecasting. We evaluate their predictive performance on three chaotic systems across 27 time series prediction tasks of varying complexity, and ensure a fair comparison through extensive hyperparameter optimization. Our results indicate that, in many cases, quantum models struggle to match the accuracy of simple classical counterparts of comparable complexity. Furthermore, we analyze the predictive performance relative to the model complexity and discuss the practical limitations of VQAs for time series forecasting.
Abstract Variational quantum machine learning algorithms have been proposed as promising tools for time series prediction, with the potential to handle complex sequential data more effectively than classical approaches. However, their practical advantage over established classical methods remains uncertain. In this work, we present a comprehensive benchmark study comparing a range of variational quantum algorithms (VQAs) and classical machine learning models for time series forecasting. We evaluate their predictive performance on three chaotic systems across 27 time series prediction tasks of varying complexity, and ensure a fair comparison through extensive hyperparameter optimization. Our results indicate that, in many cases, quantum models struggle to match the accuracy of simple classical counterparts of comparable complexity. Furthermore, we analyze the predictive performance relative to the model complexity and discuss the practical limitations of VQAs for time series forecasting.
Time series forecasting is a valuable tool for many applications, such as stock price predictions, demand forecasting or logistical optimization. There are many well-established statistical and machine learning models that are used for this purpose. Recently in the field of quantum machine learning many candidate models for forecasting have been proposed, however in the absence of theoretical grounds for advantage thorough benchmarking is essential for scientific evaluation. To this end, we performed a benchmarking study using real data of various quantum models, both gate-based and annealing-based, comparing them to the state-of-the-art classical approaches, including extensive hyperparameter optimization. Overall we found that the best classical models outperformed the best quantum models. Most of the quantum models were able to achieve comparable results and for one data set two quantum models outperformed the classical ARIMA model. These results serve as a useful point of comparison for the field of forecasting with quantum machine learning.
This research paper delves into the realm of quantum machine learning (QML) by conducting a comprehensive study on time-series data. The primary objective is to compare the results and time complexity of classical machine learning algorithms on traditional hardware to their quantum counterparts on quantum computers. As the amount and complexity of time-series data in numerous fields continues to expand, the investigation of advanced computational models becomes critical for efficient analysis and prediction. We employ a time-series dataset that include temperature records from different nations throughout the world spanning the previous half of the century. The study compares the performance of classical machine learning algorithms to quantum algorithms, which use the concepts of superposition and entanglement to handle subtle temporal patterns in time-series data. This study attempts to reveal the different benefits and drawbacks of quantum machine learning in the time-series domain through rigorous empirical analysis. The findings of this study not only help to comprehend the applicability of quantum algorithms in real-world contexts, but they also open the way for future advances in utilizing quantum computing for increased time-series analysis and prediction. This study's findings could have ramifications in industries ranging from finance to healthcare, where precise forecasting using time-series data is critical for informed decision-making.
In this paper, we present a reproducible benchmarking framework that systematically compares QML models with architecture-matched classical counterparts across three financial tasks: (i) directional return prediction on U.S. and Turkish equities, (ii) live-trading simulation with Quantum LSTMs versus classical LSTMs on the S\&P 500, and (iii) realized volatility forecasting using Quantum Support Vector Regression. By standardizing data splits, features, and evaluation metrics, our study provides a fair assessment of when current-generation QML models can match or exceed classical methods. Our results reveal that quantum approaches show performance gains when data structure and circuit design are well aligned. In directional classification, hybrid quantum neural networks surpass the parameter-matched ANN by \textbf{+3.8 AUC} and \textbf{+3.4 accuracy points} on \texttt{AAPL} stock and by \textbf{+4.9 AUC} and \textbf{+3.6 accuracy points} on Turkish stock \texttt{KCHOL}. In live trading, the QLSTM achieves higher risk-adjusted returns in \textbf{two of four} S\&P~500 regimes. For volatility forecasting, an angle-encoded QSVR attains the \textbf{lowest QLIKE} on \texttt{KCHOL} and remains within $\sim$0.02-0.04 QLIKE of the best classical kernels on \texttt{S\&P~500} and \texttt{AAPL}. Our benchmarking framework clearly identifies the scenarios where current QML architectures offer tangible improvements and where established classical methods continue to dominate.
This research project embarks on a comprehensive comparative analysis of classical and quantum machine learning models specifically tailored for time series forecasting. By employing a range of classical machine learning models alongside quantum machine learning models, the study aims to predict future data points with heightened accuracy and efficiency. Leveraging AWS Braket, the project facilitates the deployment of quantum models on both quantum simulators and quantum hardware devices, providing a robust platform for empirical evaluation. The goal is to meticulously assess the performance metrics, computational efficiency, and predictive accuracy of these models. Ultimately, the research aspires to enhance the understanding and practical application of quantum machine learning techniques in the realm of time series forecasting, potentially uncovering new paradigms in predictive analytics. Our research indicates that the performance metrics for classical machine learning models yielded superior results compared to those of quantum machine learning models for our use case, although when ensembled with classical models, we get better results.
Accurate load forecasting is critical for effective energy management, infrastructure planning, and ensuring the stability of modern power systems. With growing interest in Quantum Computing (QC), recent efforts have demonstrated the applicability of Quantum Machine Learning (QML) across various domains, including supervised and unsupervised learning. However, the use of QML models for Time Series Forecasting (TSF) remains relatively underexplored. In this work, we present a complete framework for TSF based on Variational Quantum Algorithms (VQAs), capable of both single-step and multi-step ahead forecasting. We use tensor product encoding to encode the classical input samples into quantum states, and use the data re-uploading strategy to introduce temporal dependencies across each layer of the quantum circuit. Within this framework, we systematically evaluate multiple Variational Quantum Circuit (VQC) architectures to assess their suitability for forecasting problem. Among the tested configurations, thenLocaland its modified variantQuReUpconsistently outperformed other quantum ansatz designs. Notably, in recursive multi-step forecasting scenarios, these models not only matched but surpassed the performance of a classical Artificial Neural Network (ANN). For example, thenLocalmodel achieved a 8% reduction in mean absolute error (MAE) over ANN for a 24-hour horizon. These results underscore the potential of VQAs for efficient and accurate TSF, particularly in scenarios requiring short to medium-term predictions. The proposed framework offers a promising foundation for future research, including extensions to diverse datasets and deployment on real quantum hardware to study the impact of quantum noise and scalability.
Time series forecasting involves analyzing historical data to predict future trends and is useful for reducing uncertainty in various phenomena. Recurrent Neural Network-based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) has been shown to be used for time series forecasting. However, the introduction of a hybrid quantum-classical model of LSTM, i.e., Quantum LSTM (QLSTM), opens up avenues for faster and more efficient computing and, therefore, is of significant potential. These potentials underscore the necessity for a comparative analysis of both models to assess their effectiveness and efficiency. This study evaluates the performance of QLSTM and classical LSTM models in time series forecasting. Through controlled parametric numerical experiments, the study examines the performance of both models using CPUs and GPUs in cloud environments. Our findings reveal significant improvements in the QLSTM model, with enhanced training accuracy and reduced test loss compared to the classical LSTM under similar epochs and batch sizes. The results demonstrate the superior efficiency of the QLSTM model in handling large, complex data sets compared to the classical LSTM model.