We revisit the status of quantum probabilities in light of Kolmogorovian Censorship (KC) and the Contexts, Systems, and Modalities (CSM) framework, and we discuss KC-based ideas with respect to superdeterminism, counterfactuality, and predictive incompleteness. After briefly recalling the technical content of KC and its scope, we show that KC correctly identifies that probabilities are classical within a fixed measurement context but does not by itself remove the conceptual tension that motivates nonlocal or conspiratorial explanations of Bell inequality violations. We argue that predictive incompleteness-the view that the quantum state is operationally incomplete until the measurement context is specified-provides a simple, minimal, and explanatory framework that preserves relativistic locality while matching experimental practice. Finally we clarify logical relations among these positions, highlight the assumptions behind them, and justify the move from Kolmogorov's to Gleason's framework for quantum probabilities.
We revisit the status of quantum probabilities in light of Kolmogorovian Censorship (KC) and the Contexts, Systems, and Modalities (CSM) framework, and we discuss KC-based ideas with respect to superdeterminism, counterfactuality, and predictive incompleteness. After briefly recalling the technical content of KC and its scope, we show that KC correctly identifies that probabilities are classical within a fixed measurement context but does not by itself remove the conceptual tension that motivates nonlocal or conspiratorial explanations of Bell inequality violations. We argue that predictive incompleteness-the view that the quantum state is operationally incomplete until the measurement context is specified-provides a simple, minimal, and explanatory framework that preserves relativistic locality while matching experimental practice. Finally we clarify logical relations among these positions, highlight the assumptions behind them, and justify the move from Kolmogorov's to Gleason's framework for quantum probabilities.
It is known that "quantum non locality", leading to the violation of Bell's inequality and more generally of classical local realism, can be attributed to the conjunction of two properties, which we call here elementary locality and predictive completeness. Taking this point of view, we show again that quantum mechanics violates predictive completeness, allowing the making of contextual inferences, which can, in turn, explain why quantum non locality does not contradict relativistic causality. An important question remains: if the usual quantum state ψ is predictively incomplete, how do we complete it? We give here a set of new arguments to show that ψ should be completed indeed, not by looking for any "hidden variables", but rather by specifying the measurement context, which is required to define actual probabilities over a set of mutually exclusive physical events.
Among the various "no-go theorems" in the foundations of quantum mechanics, Bell inequalities are among the few, which do not implicitly rely on the mathematical structure of quantum mechanics. Instead, Bell inequalities are commonly understood to rest on Kolmogorov's theory of probability and a "locality" assumption. Physical evidence supporting their violation is hence taken as evidence against at least one of these two assumptions.
This work provides a comprehensive analysis of the physical debate on Bell inequalities from the point of view of Kolmogorov's theory of probability, focusing on the Bell-Clauser-Horn-Shimony-Holt inequality (BCHSH inequality). The central contribution is the motivation and mathematical study of the notion of contextuality in Bell experiments: in so-called contextual Bell models the detectors themselves behave randomly and the distribution of the random detector parameters depends on the chosen detector settings. It is shown how even "classical" Bell experiments motivate such a description. The need to account for contextuality was pointed out before by de la Peña, Cetto, Brody, Lochak, Bohm, Hiley and others. A broad class of contextual models is proven to satisfy the BCHSH inequality, thereby generalizing a previous result by Gill and Lambare. Nonetheless, even under strong locality requirements, contextual Bell models may violate the BCHSH inequality: based on work by Popescu and Rohrlich, we consider a "proof of concept" example exhibiting the maximum possible violation.
Contrary to the much debated "loopholes" in empirical tests of Bell inequalities, contextuality thus reveals a conceptual misunderstanding in the physical conclusions commonly drawn from Bell inequality violations.
Within the Dempster-Schafer theory of evidence a non-Kolmogorovian kind of epistemic uncertainty arises, which is encoded using multi-valued maps. We analyse the possible implications such non-Kolmogorovian epistemic uncertainty may have for Bell-type inequalities relating to the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Bohm (EPRB) thought experiment. Our analysis leads to a notion of contextuality concerning complexes of physical measurement conditions. The use of multi-valued maps reveals an implicit link between this contextuality and counterfactual outcomes, and results in a formulation wherein the states of measurement devices are explicitly taken into account as part of the probabilistic event space. This reflects a conception of measurement that was advocated by Bell some time ago. It results in context-conditioned measure-theoretic probabilities, which do not obey Bell-type inequalities, but which are nonetheless perfectly compatible with local classical physical models. We give an example of a local classical model that reproduces the quantum mechanical predictions and that fits within the contextual framework.
Bell's theorem is popularly stated as the inconsistency of quantum theory with local realism. Realism is here formalized by the ontological models framework, where elements of reality are points of a measurable space and probabilities obey the Kolmogorov axioms. In the Bell scenario, locally causal ontological models posit a common cause supporting a global valuation, a joint assignment of outcomes to all measurements at once, across incompatible contexts. Within this notion of realism, Bell's theorem makes any realist explanation of the quantum predictions conspiratorial: any mechanism, whether superluminal, superdeterministic, or retrocausal, must be finely tuned so as never to manifest operationally. We redefine realism through a new ontological framework that generalizes the standard one. The elements of reality, which we call records, are no longer points but relational parts of a point-free generalization of a topological space (sublocales of a locale). A record shared by two incompatible contexts establishes the sameness of a measurement across them, without such pairwise identities composing into a global valuation, and the common cause is then a web of such records. Within this framework, Bell's no-go theorem becomes a go theorem: local causality, restated for records, is no longer at odds with the quantum statistics. This is possible because modularity, the inclusion-exclusion law of classical probability, fails across incompatible contexts, so that the probability theory generalizes Kolmogorov's. We exhibit explicit models reproducing several quantum strategies, including the optimal CHSH violation. More broadly, locally causal models of this kind attain every Bell-CHSH value up to the algebraic maximum. A realist explanation of the quantum predictions need not be conspiratorial; every causal influence posited by these models is reflected in the operational predictions.
Does determinism (or even the incompleteness of quantum mechanics) follow from locality and perfect correlations? In a 1964 paper, John Bell gave the first demonstration that quantum mechanics is incompatible with local hidden variables. Since then, a vigorous debate has rung out over whether he relied on an assumption of determinism or instead, as he later claimed in a 1981 paper, derived determinism from assumptions of locality and perfect correlation. This paper aims to bring clarity to the debate via simple examples and rigorous results. It is first recalled, via quantum and classical counterexamples, that the weakest statistical form of locality consistent with Bell’s 1964 paper (parameter independence) is insufficient for the derivation of determinism. Attention is then turned to critically assess Bell’s appeal to the Einstein–Rosen–Podolsky (EPR) incompleteness argument to support his claim. It is shown that this argument is itself incomplete, via counterexamples that expose two logical gaps. Closing these gaps via a strong “counterfactual” reality criterion enables a rigorous derivation of both determinism and parameter independence, and in this sense justifies Bell’s claim. Conversely, however, it is noted that whereas the EPR argument requires a weaker “measurement choice” assumption than Bell’s demonstration, it nevertheless leads to a similar incompatibility with quantum predictions rather than quantum incompleteness.
In this dissertation, we explore two alternatives to quantum nonlocality in a single-universe framework: superdeterminism and retrocausality. These models circumvent Bell's theorem by violating the assumption that the hidden variables are uncorrelated with the measurement settings. In Chapter 1, we introduce superdeterminism and prepare the groundwork for our results in Chapter 2. We start from a review of the topic, focussing on the various qualitative criticisms raised against superdeterminism in the literature. We identify the criticism of 'superdeterministic conspiracy' by Bell as the most serious, and introduce nonequilibrium extensions of superdeterministic models in an attempt to formalise the criticism. We study the different properties of these models, and isolate two conspiratorial features. First, the measurement statistics depend on the physical system used to determine the measurement settings. Second, the formal no-signalling constraints are violated although there is no causal connection between the wings. We quantify in Chapter 2 the two conspiratorial features that we found in Chapter 1. We consider a Bell scenario where, in each run and at each wing, the experimenter chooses one of N devices to determine the local measurement setting. We then show that a superdeterministic model of the scenario has to finely tuned such that measurement statistics do not depend on the physical system used to determine the measurement settings. This quantifies the first form of conspiracy identified in Chapter 1 as a fine tuning. We also show that a superdeterministic model of the scenario requires arbitrarily large correlations, quantified in terms of a formal entropy drop and in terms of mutual information, to be set up by the initial conditions. Such correlations are required to ensure that the devices that the hidden variables are correlated with are coincidentally the same as the devices in fact used for every run at each wing. This quantifies the second form of conspiracy identified in Chapter 2 as an arbitrary large correlation. Nonlocal and retrocausal models turn out to be non-conspiratorial according to both approaches, thereby singling out `conspiracy' as a unique, problematic feature of superdeterminism. In Chapter 3, we change tracks to focus on retrocausality. Our results regarding retrocausal models are, in contrast to superdeterminism, positive. We first show how to construct a local, ψ-epistemic hidden-variable model of Bell correlations with wavefunctions in physical space by a retrocausal adaptation of the originally superdeterministic model given by Brans. We show that, in non-equilibrium, the model generally violates no-signalling constraints while remaining local with respect to both ontology and interaction between particles. Lastly, we argue that our model shares some structural similarities with the modal class of interpretations of quantum mechanics. In Chapter 4, focus on the question whether retrocausal models can utilise their relativistic properties to account for relativistic effects on entangled systems. We consider a hypothetical relativistic Bell experiment, where one of the wings experiences time-dilation effects. We show that the retrocausal Brans model, introduced in Chapter 3, can be easily generalised to analyse this experiment, and that it predicts less separation of eigenpackets in the wing experiencing the time-dilation. This causes the particle distribution patterns on the photographic plates to differ between the wings -- an experimentally testable prediction of the model. We discuss the difficulties faced by other hidden variable models in describing this experiment, and their natural resolution in our model due to its relativistic properties. Lastly, we argue that it is not clear at present, due to technical difficulties, if our prediction is reproduced by quantum field theory. We conclude that if it is, then the retrocausal Brans model predicts the same result with great simplicity in comparison. If not, the model can be experimentally tested.