Quantum computing has emerged as a powerful computational paradigm capable of solving problems beyond the reach of classical computers. However, today’s quantum computers are noisy, posing challenges to obtaining accurate results. Here, we explore the impact of noise on quantum computing, focusing on the challenges in sampling bit strings from noisy quantum computers and the implications for optimization and machine learning. We formally quantify the sampling overhead to extract good samples from noisy quantum computers and relate it to the layer fidelity, a metric to determine the performance of noisy quantum processors. Further, we show how this allows us to use the conditional value at risk of noisy samples to determine provable bounds on noise-free expectation values. We discuss how to leverage these bounds for different algorithms and demonstrate our findings through experiments on real quantum computers involving up to 127 qubits. The results show strong alignment with theoretical predictions. In this study, the authors investigate the impact of noise on quantum computing with a focus on the challenges in sampling bit strings from noisy quantum computers, which has implications for optimization and machine learning.
Quantum computing has emerged as a powerful computational paradigm capable of solving problems beyond the reach of classical computers. However, today’s quantum computers are noisy, posing challenges to obtaining accurate results. Here, we explore the impact of noise on quantum computing, focusing on the challenges in sampling bit strings from noisy quantum computers and the implications for optimization and machine learning. We formally quantify the sampling overhead to extract good samples from noisy quantum computers and relate it to the layer fidelity, a metric to determine the performance of noisy quantum processors. Further, we show how this allows us to use the conditional value at risk of noisy samples to determine provable bounds on noise-free expectation values. We discuss how to leverage these bounds for different algorithms and demonstrate our findings through experiments on real quantum computers involving up to 127 qubits. The results show strong alignment with theoretical predictions. In this study, the authors investigate the impact of noise on quantum computing with a focus on the challenges in sampling bit strings from noisy quantum computers, which has implications for optimization and machine learning.
The present era of quantum processors with hundreds to thousands of noisy qubits has sparked interest in understanding the computational power of these devices and how to leverage it to solve practically relevant problems. For applications that require estimating expectation values of observables the community developed a good understanding of how to simulate them classically and denoise them. Certain applications, like combinatorial optimization, however demand more than expectation values: the bit-strings themselves encode the candidate solutions. While recent impossibility and threshold results indicate that noisy samples alone rarely beat classical heuristics, we still lack classical methods to replicate those noisy samples beyond the setting of random quantum circuits.Focusing on problems whose objective depends only on two-body correlations such as Max-Cut, we show that Gaussian randomized rounding in the spirit of Goemans-Williamson applied to the circuit's two-qubit marginals produces a distribution whose expected cost is provably close to that of the noisy quantum device. For instance, for Max-Cut problems we show that for any depth-D circuit affected by local depolarizing noise p, our sampler achieves a recovery ratio 1 − O [ ( 1 − p ) D ] , giving ways to efficiently sample from a distribution that behaves similarly to the noisy circuit for the problem at hand. Beyond theory we run large-scale simulations and experiments on IBMQ hardware, confirming that the rounded samples faithfully reproduce the full energy distribution, and we show similar behaviour under other various noise models. Our results supply a simple classical surrogate for sampling noisy optimization circuits, clarify the realistic power of near-term hardware for combinatorial tasks, and provide a quantitative benchmark for future error-mitigated or fault-tolerant demonstrations of quantum advantage.
As quantum devices grow in size while remaining affected by noise, a key challenge is to determine when and how they can surpass classical computation on practical tasks. This requires the development of highly efficient classical simulation algorithms. Pauli backpropagation algorithms are among the most promising, having shown efficiency in simulating certain classes of parameterized quantum circuits, strong candidates for near‑term quantum advantage, under random circuit assumptions and depolarizing noise. However, their efficiency had not been demonstrated for more realistic nonunital noise models, such as amplitude damping, which better capture the behaviour of current hardware. We close this gap by adapting Pauli backpropagation to most single‑qubit noise channels, including nonunital noise, and proving that it remains efficient under these conditions. Our algorithm is parallelizable, memory‑efficient, and requires no assumptions on the locality of the observable, the geometry of the hardware, or the depth of the circuit. While hardware noise can strongly affect computational power in highly structured, fault‑tolerant circuits, our findings indicate little difference for most near‑term variational architectures. This establishes Pauli backpropagation as an efficient method for simulating noisy quantum devices under realistic noise assumptions.While these advances improve our ability to reproduce noisy expectation values of observables, many practical applications, including combinatorial optimization, require direct access to the bitstrings output by quantum circuits, as these encode candidate solutions. Classical replication of such noisy samples has so far been limited beyond the random circuit setting. To bridge this gap, we first focus on problems whose objective functions depend only on two‑body correlations, such as Max‑Cut, and apply Gaussian randomized rounding to the circuit's two‑qubit marginals. This produces classical samples whose expected cost is provably close to that of the noisy quantum device. Large‑scale simulations and experiments on IBMQ hardware confirm that the rounded samples reproduce the full energy distribution, with similar behaviour under various noise models. Coupled with Pauli backpropagation for efficiently estimating noisy marginals, this yields an end‑to‑end classical sampler operating in polynomial time for a broad class of variational circuits. Our results therefore show that sufficiently noisy quantum circuits for combinatorial optimization can be sampled from classically, clarifying where near‑term hardware may or may not outperform classical algorithms.Finally , we go beyond one and two‑body marginals and present an algorithm that samples valid bitstrings directly from a maximum‑entropy distribution matching the given expectation values of the quantum circuit. This method does not rely on the locality or sparsity of the problem's Hamiltonian and performs well across a variety of quantum circuits, including deep circuits on many qubits. When combined with Pauli propagation or error mitigation, it provides a practical pipeline for obtaining samples from quantum circuits in the near term, where full error correction might not yet be available.
In the Quantum Supremacy regime, quantum computers may overcome classical machines on several tasks if we can estimate, mitigate, or correct unavoidable hardware noise. Estimating the error requires classical simulations, which become unfeasible in the Quantum Supremacy regime. We leverage Machine Learning data-driven approaches and Conformal Prediction, a Machine Learning uncertainty quantification tool known for its mild assumptions and finite-sample validity, to find theoretically valid upper bounds of the fidelity between noiseless and noisy outputs of quantum devices. Under reasonable extrapolation assumptions, the proposed scheme applies to any Quantum Computing hardware, does not require modeling the device's noise sources, and can be used when classical simulations are unavailable, e.g. in the Quantum Supremacy regime.
Quantum machine learning (QML) models hold promise for leveraging quantum computers in data-driven tasks but their performance on today's noisy quantum hardware remains an open question. In this work, we investigate the impact of shot noise, the statistical noise due to finite sampling in quantum measurements, on the training and performance of quantum neural network (QNN) models. Using a dataset of dielectron collision events from CERN, we train QNNs under varying levels of simulated noise. Three ansatz circuit architectures are explored namely BasicEntanglerLayers (Ansatz-1), SimplifiedTwoDesign (Ansatz-2) and StronglyEntanglingLayers (Ansatz-3). Each model is repeatedly trained for multiple runs at noise levels ranging from zero up to significant noise fractions (0.5), with each training run consisting of 20 epochs of parameter optimization. We evaluate the convergence behavior, final error rates and variability across runs for each noise setting. Our results show a clear degradation of QNN performance as shot noise increases with training loss converging more slowly and to higher values and the model's prediction accuracy deteriorates with larger noise. Notably, the ansatz with fewer parametric gates demonstrates relatively better robustness to noise compared to deeper, more strongly entangling circuits which suffer sharper performance drops under noise. We provide detailed comparisons of the three circuit designs, including training loss curves and statistical summaries of performance at each noise level. These findings shed light on the practical limits of QML models in the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era and highlight the trade-offs between circuit expressiveness and noise resilience. Finally, we discuss implications for designing noise-aware quantum models and possible strategies to mitigate shot noise effects in quantum learning.
Quantum computing has significantly advanced in recent years, boasting devices with hundreds of quantum bits (qubits), hinting at its potential quantum advantage over classical computing. Yet, noise in quantum devices poses significant barriers to realizing this supremacy. Understanding noise’s impact is crucial for reproducibility and application reuse; moreover, the next-generation quantum-centric supercomputing essentially requires efficient and accurate noise characterization to support system management (e.g., job scheduling), where ensuring correct functional performance (i.e., fidelity) of jobs on available quantum devices can even be higher-priority than traditional objectives. However, noise fluctuates over time, even on the same quantum device, which makes predicting the computational bounds for on-the-fly noise is vital. Noisy quantum simulation can offer insights but faces efficiency and scalability issues. In this work, we propose a data-driven workflow, namely QuBound, to predict computational performance bounds. It decomposes historical performance traces to isolate noise sources and devises a novel encoder to embed circuit and noise information processed by a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. For evaluation, we compare QuBound with a state-of-the-art learning-based predictor, which only generates a single performance value instead of a bound. Experimental results show that the result of the existing approach falls outside of performance bounds, while all predictions from our QuBound with the assistance of performance decomposition better fit the bounds. Moreover, QuBound can efficiently produce practical bounds for various circuits with over 106 speedup over simulation; in addition, the range from QuBound is over 10× narrower than the state-of-the-art analytical approach.
Noisy devices Quantum computing has the potential to solve classical intractable problems, but today's quantum devices are limited by noise that can create errors capable of vastly distorting the computation. This notebook introduces simulating and mitigating circuit noise with a focus on the domain of quantum machine learning (QML). We use the PennyLane framework to show how to model common noise channels such as bit flip, depolarizing and amplitude damping and study their effects on quantum circuit outputs. We introduce a number of optimization techniques to fit noise parameters to observed expectation values, giving tools for practical characterization of and compensation for noise in quantum experiments. Recent advances, including noise-aware circuit learning (NACL), use machine learning to automatically design quantum circuits that are resilient to device-specific noise, optimizing the required circuit structure (topology) and depth for the given hardware constraints. These methods are crucial for unlocking the promise of near-term quantum computers, making QML algorithms more resilient and speeding the journey to quantum advantage.