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arXiv:physics/0604166

Type Indeterminacy: A Model for the KT(Kahneman-Tversky)-Man

Ariane Lambert‐Mogiliansky, Shmuel Zamir, Hervé Zwirn C

Published Apr 20, 2006• 24 citations
arXivHTMLPDF

Abstract

In this paper we propose to use elements of the mathematical formalism of Quantum Mechanics to capture the idea that agents' preferences, in addition to being typically uncertain, can also be indeterminate. They are determined (i.e., realized, and not merely revealed) only when the action takes place. An agent is described by a state that is a superposition of potential types (or preferences or behaviors). This superposed state is projected (or "collapses") onto one of the possible behaviors at the time of the interaction. In addition to the main goal of modelling uncertainty of preferences that is not due to lack of information, this formalism seems to be adequate to describe widely observed phenomena of noncommutativity in patterns of behavior. We explore some implications of our approach in a comparison between classical and type indeterminate rational choice behavior. The potential of the approach is illustrated in two examples.

DOI
10.48550/arxiv.physics/0604166

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In this paper we propose to use elements of the mathematical formalism of Quantum Mechanics to capture the idea that agents' preferences, in addition to being typically uncertain, can also be indeterminate. They are determined (i.e., realized, and not merely revealed) only when the action takes place. An agent is described by a state that is a superposition of potential types (or preferences or behaviors). This superposed state is projected (or "collapses") onto one of the possible behaviors at the time of the interaction. In addition to the main goal of modelling uncertainty of preferences that is not due to lack of information, this formalism seems to be adequate to describe widely observed phenomena of noncommutativity in patterns of behavior. We explore some implications of our approach in a comparison between classical and type indeterminate rational choice behavior. The potential of the approach is illustrated in two examples.
We develop a framework for the analysis of strategic interactions under the constructive preference perspective à la Kahneman and Tversky formalized in the Type Indeterminacy model. The players are modeled as systems subject to measurements and characterized by quantum-like uncertain preferences. The decision nodes are modeled as, possibly non-commuting, operators that measure preferences modulo strategic reasoning. We define a Hilbert space of types spanned by the players' eigentypes representing their potential preferences in different situations. We focus on pure strategy TI games of maximal information where all uncertainty stems from the intrinsic indeterminacy of preferences. We show that preferences evolve in a non-deterministic manner with actions along the play: they are endogenous to the interaction. We propose the notion of cashing-on-the-go to compute a player's utility, and the Type Indeterminate Nash Equilibrium as a solution concept relying on best-replies at the level of the eigentypes. We illustrate an example exhibiting the phenomenon of the manipulation of rivals' preferences.
We develop a basic framework encoding preference relations on the set of possible strategies in a quantum-like fashion. The Type Indeterminacy model introduces quantum-like uncertainty affecting preferences. The players are viewed as systems subject to measurements. The decision nodes are, possibly non-commuting, operators that measure preferences modulo strategic reasoning. We define a Hilbert space of types and focus on pure strategy TI games of maximal information. Preferences evolve in a non-deterministic manner with actions along the play: they are endogenous to the interaction. We propose the Type Indeterminate Nash Equilibrium as a solution concept relying on best-replies at the level of eigentypes.
Develop an example with 2 DS mention result for 1 DS and commuting DS from ALMZZ and from measurable systems too. Write in words about cognitive dissonance. Dynamic decision making conceptual and some formal description on one page and end with game with QL-players as a generalization. Make the point in distinction with RUM and conditional preferences. These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.
A quantum entity is intrinsically indeterminate and is not in a determinate (classical) state when it is not being observed. The quantum entity is found to be in a determinate state only if an experiment is carried out to observe it, as discussed in Baaquie (2013e). The indeterminate behavior of the quantum entity is described by the formalism of quantum mathematics discussed in Chapter 2. The measure of quantum indeterminacy and uncertainty is Planck's constant ħ. Randomness also exists in classical systems; however, a classical system's randomness is in principle different from quantum indeterminacy, since a priori, a classical random system is intrinsically in a determinate state. Classical randomness arises entirely due to our lack of complete knowledge of the determinate state. The theory of classical probability describes a classical system about which one has incomplete knowledge. There are many ways of introducing randomness in a classical system, depending on its nature. A classical random system in thermal equilibrium is described by statistical mechanics. A classical system undergoing random time evolution can be described by taking the classical equations of motion and adding a random force to it. The evolution of the classical particle is then described by a stochastic process. The random force is usually represented by Gaussian white noise. Classical random processes driven by white noise, such as those that arise in finance and other areas, form a wide class of problems that can be described by classical probability theory. It is shown in this chapter that the mathematical framework of quantum mechanics, and in particular, the Hamiltonian operator and path integrals, provide an appropriate mathematical formalism for describing processes that are driven by Gaussian white noise.
The dissertation is a defense of the following conditional claim: if there are objective collapses of the wavefunction, then the future is genuinely open. Although this is no radically new idea, the strategy I shall use to defend it is a new one. It proceeds in two main steps. First, building upon the recent literature on metaphysical indeterminacy in quantum mechanics, I argue for the view that systems in superposition have be interpreted as objectively indeterminate state of affairs. Second, I propose an alternative way to think of openness, according to which the future is open as of t, if and only if there is an indeterminate state of affair S at t, and S becomes determinate at t? (with t? later than t). To argue for the second step, I will give an analysis of the objective collapses of the wavefunction as the becoming determinate of previously indeterminate systems. Furthermore, in developing my arguments, I will also make some remarks concerning the ontology of objective collapse interpretations of quantum mechanics, the issue of whether metaphysical indeterminacy can be at some derivate level of reality, and the possibility of the openness of the future being an emergent phenomenon.
The core assumptions of modern economic utility theories such as rationality have been placed under scrutiny by recent studies in decision theory and behavioural economics and fi?nance. The main questions that were explored in these studies could be expressed as follows: do people always make rational choices? Do they make use of the normative rules of traditional logic and probability when dealing with risk and uncertainty? Are there any alternative methods to capture choices and reasoning when individuals are faced with uncertainty and risk? In this thesis I will elaborate on an interdisciplinary application of so-called QL (quantum-like) models to decision-making problems in ?finance and other socio-economic contexts. The core inquiry of this work is related to experimental tests of decision making with the help of investment related questions. Calculus and logic borrowed from quantum physics will be used to develop probabilistic models for the formation and evolution of decisions in ?finance context with the potential to generalize to other social decision- making settings. The main fi?ndings of this thesis can be summarized as follows: individuals exhibit preference reversals and context-dependent behaviour in different informational contexts. In particular, in condition of risk individuals exhibit uncertainty aversion and thus aversion to participating in other investment task, violating the postulates of classical probability theory. The core principle of rational (consequential) behaviour conceived by Savage (1954) [207], that is the "Savage Sure Thing" principle, was shown to be violated. In mathematical language, this violation is equivalent to the violation of the "Law of total probability". Implying contextuality of human judgement, different events cannot be jointly evaluated in a single probability space. Moreover, additional experimental fi?ndings showed that participants exhibited reference dependence in their risk attitudes depending on the preceding gain respective loss. These fi?ndings were statistically signi?cant and a quantum model for accommodating the above effects of contextual behaviour is introduced. A geometric depiction of the experimental fi?ndings was proposed. A so-called `state reconstruction' procedure from statistical data was performed via the inverse Born's rule (1926) [47], allowing the construction of a complete representation of agents' resolution from indeterminacy.