Post-Quantum Migration Readiness for African Financial Institutions
Josephat Kasile, Isaac Shaban, Dominick Joseph, Mariam Slim, Edward Fadhili, Daniel Makange, Allan Jada, Elina Kassabaje, Swirtbert Shija, Joshua Mushi, Angel Mmari, Mrisho Lukamba, Sarah Kamwela
Financial institutions depend on RSA, elliptic-curve cryptography, and Diffie-Hellman key exchange for authentication, transaction integrity, and confidentiality: algorithms a sufficiently large quantum computer would break outright rather than merely weaken. No cryptographically relevant quantum computer exists yet, but the harvest-now-decrypt-later threat means data intercepted today remains at risk once one does, and financial data's long retention obligations make this a present-day planning problem rather than a distant one. This paper assesses the readiness of financial institutions in Africa to adopt post-quantum cryptography (PQC) and develops a framework for transitioning to quantum-resistant cryptographic systems. Five specific objectives drive that work: examining PQC awareness among African financial institutions, assessing current cryptographic exposure, identifying technical, financial, organizational, regulatory, and skills-related adoption barriers, evaluating the suitability of finalized PQC algorithms for financial applications, and developing a readiness and migration framework fitted to African constraints. The study's design is literature-based and conceptual: it synthesizes verified secondary evidence rather than reporting original fieldwork, and no institution was surveyed or interviewed. Its contributions include an integrated Technology-Organization-Environment/Diffusion-of-Innovation model with crypto-agility as a mediating capability, a six-dimension readiness instrument, and an algorithm-evaluation framework. The central contribution, a six-phase migration framework addressing three gaps found in every existing precedent, is paired with an adapted risk-based prioritization matrix. Headline recommendations call on institutions to name a single accountable owner and begin scoped discovery now, on regulators to extend draft cybersecurity guidance to address cryptographic agility explicitly, and on future research to empirically test the proposed model against real institutions.
Financial institutions depend on RSA, elliptic-curve cryptography, and Diffie-Hellman key exchange for authentication, transaction integrity, and confidentiality: algorithms a sufficiently large quantum computer would break outright rather than merely weaken. No cryptographically relevant quantum computer exists yet, but the harvest-now-decrypt-later threat means data intercepted today remains at risk once one does, and financial data's long retention obligations make this a present-day planning problem rather than a distant one. This paper assesses the readiness of financial institutions in Africa to adopt post-quantum cryptography (PQC) and develops a framework for transitioning to quantum-resistant cryptographic systems. Five specific objectives drive that work: examining PQC awareness among African financial institutions, assessing current cryptographic exposure, identifying technical, financial, organizational, regulatory, and skills-related adoption barriers, evaluating the suitability of finalized PQC algorithms for financial applications, and developing a readiness and migration framework fitted to African constraints. The study's design is literature-based and conceptual: it synthesizes verified secondary evidence rather than reporting original fieldwork, and no institution was surveyed or interviewed. Its contributions include an integrated Technology-Organization-Environment/Diffusion-of-Innovation model with crypto-agility as a mediating capability, a six-dimension readiness instrument, and an algorithm-evaluation framework. The central contribution, a six-phase migration framework addressing three gaps found in every existing precedent, is paired with an adapted risk-based prioritization matrix. Headline recommendations call on institutions to name a single accountable owner and begin scoped discovery now, on regulators to extend draft cybersecurity guidance to address cryptographic agility explicitly, and on future research to empirically test the proposed model against real institutions.
Quantum computing threatens the security foundations of global financial systems, exposing long-lived data and signed digital assets to “harvest-now, decrypt-later” attacks. While the timeline for cryptographically relevant quantum computers remains uncertain, regulatory signals from the USA, UK, EU, Canada, and Australia converge: financial institutions and payment infrastructures must begin migrating to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) now to preserve confidentiality, integrity, and systemic stability. This paper maps emerging standards and roadmaps, contrasting binding requirements like the EU’s DORA crypto-agility provisions with non-binding guidance from NIST, ENISA, and ETSI. Despite a shared intent to secure high-risk use cases by 2030–2031 and complete migration by 2035, divergences in enforcement and milestones create uncertainty for cross-border banks and financial market infrastructures. In parallel, technical adoption is advancing: major browsers, cryptographic libraries (OpenSSL/BoringSSL), and CDNs (e.g., AWS CloudFront) have deployed hybrid PQC key exchange in TLS 1.3, proving confidentiality defenses are viable at internet scale. The paper synthesizes historical transition lessons, sector-specific regulatory drivers, and operational constraints in payment infrastructures to derive a new, principle-based migration: crypto-agility, risk-prioritized scoping, hybrid deployment, vendor and supply-chain alignment, independent testing, and proactive supervisory engagement. Acting now reduces long-tail exposure and ensures readiness for imminent compliance and interoperability deadlines.
Quantum computing poses an existential threat to public-key cryptography, with Shor's algorithm capable of breaking RSA and elliptic curve systems once cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs) emerge. While post-quantum cryptography (PQC) offers algorithmic solutions, organizational readiness extends beyond technical implementation to encompass governance, interoperability, and adaptive capacity. This review synthesizes the quantum threat landscape, evaluates NIST-standardized PQC algorithms through quantitative performance analysis, and examines global standardization dynamics. We introduce a novel Quantum Readiness Maturity Model (QRMM) that enables organizations to assess and advance their preparedness across five dimensions: cryptographic infrastructure, governance frameworks, sectoral adaptation, interoperability resilience, and strategic agility. Applying this model to finance, telecommunications, and defense sectors reveals systematic gaps in migration planning and crypto-agility. Our analysis demonstrates that quantum readiness requires treating cryptographic transformation as a strategic enterprise capability rather than a purely technical upgrade. The proposed framework provides actionable pathways for practitioners while identifying critical research directions in hybrid deployment strategies, post-quantum PKI architectures, and algorithmic diversity.
Purpose This paper aims to examines the governance of post-quantum cryptography (PQC) transition in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banking, identifies structural gaps in existing regulatory frameworks and proposes a regulatory readiness framework for orderly migration to quantum-resistant standards. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative policy-analytical methodology combines structured literature synthesis with comparative regulatory analysis of six GCC banking frameworks – Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, Central Bank of the UAE, Central Bank of Kuwait, Qatar Central Bank, Central Bank of Bahrainand Central Bank of Oman – against five PQC governance dimensions, stress-tested across three cryptographically relevant quantum computer timeline scenarios. Findings None of the six frameworks explicitly addresses PQC transition requirements and all show critical gaps in cryptographic agility, quantum threat timeline awareness and harvest-now-decrypt-later (HNDL) risk assessment. National Institute of Standards and Technology (US)’s PQC standards (Federal Information Processing Standard 203, 204, 205) supply the technical foundation but not the regulatory coordination and supervisory capacity GCC banking requires. Practical implications The framework gives GCC banking regulators actionable guidance for introducing HNDL risk assessment, mandating cryptographic agility and establishing PQC transition planning before migration becomes compressed and disruptive. Originality/value This is among the first systematic PQC governance analyses of GCC banking, best characterised as a theoretically grounded contextual adaptation rather than a new governance theory. The proposed three-phase framework – inventory, prioritised migration, continuous resilience – is framed through a socio-technical transition lens, translating generic quantum-risk identification into a governance architecture grounded in the six GCC supervisors’ regulatory landscape.
The prospect that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) could eventually compromise RSA (Rivest–Shamir–Adleman) and elliptic-curve cryptography presents organizations with a complex investment decision under substantial technological and economic uncertainty. This paper examines organizational responses to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) investment through qualitative thematic analysis of a purposive corpus of practitioner and executive position statements, triangulated with peer-reviewed research and technical and governance literature on PQC migration, cryptographic agility, and the harvest-now-decrypt-later (HNDL) threat. Findings reveal broad convergence toward a phased preparation strategy centered on cryptographic agility, rather than immediate large scale replacement or passive deferral. The analysis indicates that data confidentiality lifespan is a more actionable risk variable than the uncertain timing of CRQC availability, while financial, operational, and interoperability constraints limit the practicality of wholesale migration. The paper contributes a stakeholder aware decision framework and practical phased actions, including cryptographic inventory, data classification by confidentiality lifetime, hybrid deployment, vendor accountability, and agile security architectures, to support organizational leaders and boards in making defensible PQC investment decisions under continuing uncertainty.
Abstract Classical computing architectures cannot reasonably solve computationally challenging problems, such as those of RSA public-key encryption, Diffie-Hellman key exchange, and elliptic curve cryptography, which form the cryptographic foundations of modern enterprise information security. Superposition and entanglement phenomena can be used to make quantum computers efficient in solving these problems, which are efficiently solved by Shor's algorithm and Grover's algorithm, and make existing cryptographic infrastructure entirely insecure. While quantum computing is fault-tolerant and still under development, the 'harvest now, decrypt later' threat model by which adversaries can harvest encrypted data now to be decrypted later when they can operate quantum systems signals that the cryptographic threat is present, not future. The objective of this study is to examine the current state of enterprise cryptographic readiness against threats in the quantum era and to create a model for organizational transition to the new cryptographic standards in the quantum era, which is called the Quantum-Resilient Security Architecture (QRSA) Framework. It uses a mixed-methods research methodology, consisting of a systematic literature review, an expert Delphi survey of 38 cybersecurity practitioners from 16 countries, and a qualitative analysis of five enterprise organizations, to examine the state of quantum-capable cryptographic protocols, the readiness of organizations in the technical, governance and capability aspects, and the most important enablers and blockers for the post-quantum migration. The key findings include that: 94 percent of enterprise systems assessed are today still using quantum-vulnerable cryptographic primitives; less than 12 percent of organizations surveyed have started formal planning efforts for quantum migration; and, in most of the cases analyzed, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) post-quantum cryptography standardization process has not made significant impacts on enterprise security roadmaps. The QRSA Framework offers a staged migration architecture based on the NIST standardized algorithms such as CRYSTALS-Kyber, CRYSTALS-Dilithium and SPHINCS+ that integrates with the enterprise security infrastructure. Contributions include cybersecurity governance scholarship, enterprise risk management theory, and information security policy.
The emergence of quantum computing technologies poses significant risks to conventional public-key cryptographic systems and creating an urgent need for organizational preparation toward Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) migration. Although various PQC migration frameworks and quantum-readiness initiatives have been proposed, existing approaches primarily focus on technical migration guidance and provide limited operational mechanisms for assessing organizational readiness, particularly within public-sector environments. This study develops and conducts a preliminary validation of a Post-Quantum Cryptography Organizational Readiness Instrument (PQC-ORI) for Indonesian public-sector organizations using a Design Science Research approach integrating Systematic Literature Review (SLR), Qualitative Content Analysis (QCA), and Framework Alignment Matrix (FAM) techniques to synthesize recurring organizational readiness constructs from PQC migration literature, governance frameworks, and cybersecurity readiness studies. The resulting framework comprises six organizational readiness dimensions: Cryptographic Awareness, Governance and Policy, Migration Management, Technical Capability, Cryptographic Agility, and Operational Resilience. The framework additionally operationalizes these dimensions into structured assessment indicators and a five-level maturity model intended to support organizational self-assessment and migration planning activities. Preliminary validation by three domain experts using structured expert judgment yielded an overall mean score of 3.69/4.00, indicating high relevance, conceptual consistency, and applicability for assessing organizational readiness for PQC migration in public-sector organizations.