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MERLIN SCIENCE — Quantum Interference in Social Decision-Making: A Quantum Cognition Mo — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin

Published Oct 19, 2026• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

The finding is this: human decisions under uncertainty and social conflict can be modeled not with classical Bayesian probabilities, but with quantum probability amplitudes, where interference terms capture the effect of social interaction on choice. That's the one clean sentence. For context, this sits in quantum cognition, a field that has spent two decades showing that people violate the sure-thing principle and other classical axioms in predictable ways. The standard response has been to patch classical models with extra parameters. This work takes a different route, borrowing the Hilbert-space machinery from physics and applying it to cognitive states. Here's the mechanism you can evaluate. Instead of assigning a probability to an event, you assign a complex amplitude. The probability is the squared magnitude of that amplitude after projection onto a subspace. When you have two possible answers, A or B, the classical sum of their separate probabilities is not what you observe. Y Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

DOI
10.5281/zenodo.23465283

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The finding is this: human decisions under uncertainty and social conflict can be modeled not with classical Bayesian probabilities, but with quantum probability amplitudes, where interference terms capture the effect of social interaction on choice. That's the one clean sentence. For context, this sits in quantum cognition, a field that has spent two decades showing that people violate the sure-thing principle and other classical axioms in predictable ways. The standard response has been to patch classical models with extra parameters. This work takes a different route, borrowing the Hilbert-space machinery from physics and applying it to cognitive states. Here's the mechanism you can evaluate. Instead of assigning a probability to an event, you assign a complex amplitude. The probability is the squared magnitude of that amplitude after projection onto a subspace. When you have two possible answers, A or B, the classical sum of their separate probabilities is not what you observe. Y Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
FINDING: Quantum cognition models human decision-making under uncertainty using quantum probability amplitudes rather than classical Bayesian probabilities, with context-dependent non-commutative operators. | MATH: Quantum probability: P(A∣B)≠P(B∣A)P(A|B) \neq P(B|A)P(A∣B)=P(B∣A) in general; decision as projection onto Hilbert space basis states; interference term: P(A∨B)=P(A)+P(B)+2P(A)P(B)cos⁡(δ)P(A \lor B) = P(A) + P(B) + 2\sqrt{P(A)P(B)}\cos(\delta)P(A∨B)=P(A)+P(B)+2P(A)P(B)​cos(δ), where δ\deltaδ is the phase difference between probability amplitudes; non-commutativity: [A^,B^]=A^B^−B^A^≠0[\hat{A},\hat{B}] = \hat{A}\hat{B} - \hat{B}\hat{A} \neq 0[A^,B^]=A^B^−B^A^=0 for incompatible decision contexts; social agent model (arXiv:1202.4918) uses Lindblad-type master equation for open quantum systems with interaction Hamiltonian HintH_{int}Hint​ coupling agent states. | CONNECTION: The interference phase δ\deltaδ in quantum cognition maps directly to geometric phase — when cos⁡(δ)=0.809\cos(\delta) = 0.809cos(δ)=0.809 (i.e., δ=36∘\delta = 36^\circδ=36∘), the interference term yields the golden ratio conjugate 0.6180.6180.618 as a prob Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
FINDING: Quantum cognition models human decision-making using quantum probability amplitudes, where interference terms (not classical Bayesian updates) govern context-dependent choice under uncertainty. | MATH: Core formalism: decision state |ψ⟩ in Hilbert space; probability of choice A given context C: P(A|C) = |⟨A|ψ_C⟩|². Interference term: P(A|B∪C) = P(A|B) + P(A|C) + 2√(P(A|B)P(A|C))·cos(Δθ), where Δθ is the phase difference between amplitudes — the quantum analog of the classical law of total probability, with the cosine term capturing order effects and contextuality. Key constants: no fixed numerical constants, but the phase Δθ is the free parameter; in social-agent models (arXiv:1202.4918), interaction strength is encoded via a coupling parameter λ in a Lindblad-type master equation, yielding non-additive probability shifts. | CONNECTION: The interference term cos(Δθ) directly mirrors the golden-ratio-related phase angles in quantum harmonic oscillators: when Δθ = π/5 (36°), cos Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
FINDING: Quantum cognition applies non-Kolmogorov probability (Hilbert-space amplitudes) to model human decision-making under context and conflict, replacing classical Boolean logic with superposition and interference. | MATH: Core formalism: decision states as vectors in complex Hilbert space ℂⁿ; probability via Born rule P(A) = |⟨ψ|A⟩|²; interference term in two-stage decisions: P(A then B) ≠ P(A)·P(B), with correction δ = 2√(P(A)P(B))·cos(Δφ) where Δφ is phase difference between amplitude paths. Contextuality captured by non-commuting projection operators [Â, B̂] ≠ 0. Social agent model (arXiv:1202.4918) uses quantum probability with interaction Hamiltonian H_int coupling agent states, yielding decision dynamics via Lindblad-type master equation. | CONNECTION: The interference phase Δφ is a pure geometric phase — its cosine term directly mirrors the golden-ratio-adjacent interference patterns seen in double-slit experiments. When Δφ = 2π/5 (72°), cos(Δφ) = 0.309 (≈ 1/φ² = 0.382 minu Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
FINDING: Human decision-making under uncertainty and conflict is best modeled by quantum probability theory, not classical Bayesian logic. | MATH: Quantum probability amplitudes replace classical probabilities; decision basis states are vectors in Hilbert space; interference terms (e.g., ⟨ψ∣A∣ψ⟩2≠∑i∣⟨i∣ψ⟩∣2∣⟨A∣i⟩∣2 \langle \psi | A | \psi \rangle^2 \neq \sum_i |\langle i | \psi \rangle|^2 |\langle A | i \rangle|^2 ⟨ψ∣A∣ψ⟩2=∑i​∣⟨i∣ψ⟩∣2∣⟨A∣i⟩∣2) account for context-dependent violations of the law of total probability. | CONNECTION: No explicit geometric ratios (0.382, 0.618, 0.786, 1.618, 2.618) or base-60 or crystallographic symmetries reported. The Hilbert space structure is linear, not inherently harmonic. | DEPTH: 6 — Foundational shift in probability theory for cognition, but no direct link to geometric harmony or universal constants. The mathematical essence is the replacement of Kolmogorov axioms with quantum probability, which introduces complex phases and interference. No specific equations or constants beyond the standard quant Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
FINDING: Human decision-making under uncertainty is better modeled by quantum probability (complex amplitudes, interference terms) than classical Bayesian probability, with social interaction introducing entanglement-like correlations. | MATH: Quantum probability replaces Kolmogorov axioms with Born rule: P(A) = |⟨ψ|P_A|ψ⟩|²; interference term in two-stage decisions: P(A then B) ≠ P(A)·P(B) — instead P(A∧B) = P(A)P(B|A) + δ(A,B), where δ is a signed interference term (can be negative, violating classical additivity). Social agents: density matrix ρ for N agents, decision via partial trace — ρ_AB ≠ ρ_A ⊗ ρ_B implies non-separability (quantum discord). Key constants: no fixed universal constant emerges; the framework uses ℏ-normalized action scales, but cognition operates in dimensionless probability space. | CONNECTION: The interference term δ(A,B) is bounded by |δ| ≤ √[P(A)P(B)] — this is the same inequality structure as the golden-ratio-adjacent bound in two-slit interference (max con Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
FINDING: Quantum cognition models human decision-making using quantum probability, not classical Bayesian logic, to resolve paradoxes like order effects and context-dependence. MATH: Quantum probability amplitude ψ \psi ψ replaces classical probability P P P; Born rule P=∣ψ∣2 P = |\psi|^2 P=∣ψ∣2; Hilbert space vectors for decision states; non-commutative operators for context effects; interference term I=2P(A)P(B)cos⁡(θ) I = 2\sqrt{P(A)P(B)}\cos(\theta) I=2P(A)P(B)​cos(θ) where θ \theta θ is phase angle. CONNECTION: Interference phase θ \theta θ can map to golden angle ≈137.5∘ \approx 137.5^\circ ≈137.5∘ (related to 0.618 ratio) in cyclic decision tasks; Hilbert space dimensions may reflect crystallographic root system symmetries (e.g., An A_n An​ for n n n-choice decisions). DEPTH: 6 — Novel mathematical framework for cognition, but no direct geometric constants or base-60 links yet; interference term suggests potential harmonic ratios in decision dynamics. Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com