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Journal of consciousness exploration & research

Why the Outcome of an Event Would Be More Predictable if It Is Known to Occur?

Matti Pitkanen, R. Rastmanesh

Published Jul 16, 2021• 0 citations
OpenAlex

Abstract

There are experiments suggesting that the reliability of future predictions for events is better for real than for hypothetical events. This strange finding, if real, would be an anomaly analogous to Libet's findings about active aspects of consciousness challenging the notion of free will. In this article it is argued that it is difficult to explain the finding in the physicalistic framework, and that the allowance of free will seems only to worsen the situation since precognition of acts of free will does not make sense. In the framework of Topological Geometrodynamics (TGD) zero energy ontology (ZEO) replaces the standard ontology of quantum theory. ZEO predicts that in "big" (ordinary) state function reductions (BSFRs) the arrow of time changes and that the identification of acts of free will identified as BSFRS is not in conflict with the determinism of classical physics as an exact part of quantum TGD. Also Libet's findings can be understood. This suggests a model for the anomaly. The experiment would have already happened as BSFR ("already" is with respect to subjective time to be distinguished from geometric time) for a quantum system associated with the experimenters and participants. The knowledge that the event is actual inspires unconsciously the attempt to "remember" the personal performance in the experiment instead of only imagining it and this would explain the improved future predictions.

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Journal of consciousness exploration & research•Sep 1, 2025•0 citations
There are experiments suggesting that the reliability of future predictions for events is better for real than for hypothetical events. This strange finding, if real, would be an anomaly analogous to Libet's findings about active aspects of consciousness challenging the notion of free will. In this article it is argued that it is difficult to explain the finding in the physicalistic framework, and that the allowance of free will seems only to worsen the situation since precognition of acts of free will does not make sense. In the framework of Topological Geometrodynamics (TGD) zero energy ontology (ZEO) replaces the standard ontology of quantum theory. ZEO predicts that in "big" (ordinary) state function reductions (BSFRs) the arrow of time changes and that the identification of acts of free will identified as BSFRS is not in conflict with the determinism of classical physics as an exact part of quantum TGD. Also Libet's findings can be understood. This suggests a model for the anomaly. The experiment would have already happened as BSFR ("already" is with respect to subjective time to be distinguished from geometric time) for a quantum system associated with the experimenters and participants. The knowledge that the event is actual inspires unconsciously the attempt to "remember" the personal performance in the experiment instead of only imagining it and this would explain the improved future predictions.
The identification of the experienced time te and geometric time tg involves well-known problems. Physicist is troubled by the reversibility of tg contra irreversibility of te, by the conflict between determinism of Schrödinger equation and the non-determinism of state function reduction, and by the poorly understood the origin of the arrow of tg. In biology the second law of thermodynamics might be violated in its standard form for short time intervals. Neuroscientist knows that the moment of sensory experience has a finite duration, does not understand what memories really are, and is bothered by the Libet's puzzling finding that neural activity seems to precede conscious decision. These problems are discussed in the framework of Topological Geometrodynamics (TGD) and TGD inspired theory of consciousness constructed as a generalization of quantum measurement theory. In TGD space-times are regarded as 4-dimensional surfaces of 8-dimensional space-time H=M4×CP2 and obey classical field equations. The basic notions of consciousness theory are quantum jump and self. Subjective time is identified as a sequence of quantum jumps. Self has as a geometric correlate a fixed volume of H- "causal diamond"-defining the perceptive field of self. Quantum states are regarded as quantum superpositions of space-time surfaces of H and by quantum classical correspondence assumed to shift towards the geometric past of H quantum jump by quantum jump. This creates the illusion that perceiver moves to the direction of the geometric future. Self is curious about the geometric future and induces the shift bringing it to its perceptive field. Macroscopic quantum coherence and the identification of space-times as surfaces in H play a crucial role in this picture allowing to understand also other problematic aspects in the relationship between experienced and geometric time.
This article is inspired by the article "Is a time symmetric interpretation of quantum theory possible without retrocausality?" of Leifer and Pusey related to the notion of retrocausality. Retrocausality means the possibility of causal influences propagating in non-standard time direction. The conjecture is that retrocausality could allow wave functions to be real and allow to get rid of the problematic notion of state function reduction. TGD leads to a new view about reality of wave function solving the basic problem of quantum measurement theory. In ZEO quantum states are replaced by zero energy states analogous to pairs of initial and final states in ordinary positive energy ontology and can be regarded as superpositions of classical deterministic time evolutions. The sequence of state function reductions means a sequence of re-creations of the superpositions of classical realities identified as space-time surfaces. The TGD based view about scattering amplitudes has rather concrete connection with the view of Cramer as I interpret it. There is however no attempt to reduce quantum theory to a purely classical theory. The notion of the "world of classical worlds" (WCW) consisting of classical realities identified as space-time surfaces replaces space-time as a fixed observer independent reality in TGD. Retrocausality is basic aspect of TGD. Zero Energy Ontology (ZEO) predicts that both arrows of time are possible. In this sense TGD is time symmetric. On the other hand, twistor lift of TGD predicts a violation of time reflection T and this might imply that second arrow of causality dominates in some sense. The ZEO based view about state function reduction essential for TGD inspired theory of consciousness and implying generalized Zeno effect giving rise to conscious entities - "selves" - is also essential. One might say that when conscious entity dies it re-incarnates as time-reversed self.
We remember our conscious experiences, also as re-experiences, and not just as learned, often unconscious, behaviors that reduce to associations. In the standard ontology of quantum theory. The information of the conscious experience, if determined by the quantum jump, must be about the initial and the final states of the quantum jump and the transition between them. In the standard ontology of quantum theory, it cannot be represented by the final state of the quantum jump. According to the standard quantum theory, quantum states 3-D time=constant snapshots and do not remember anything about the previous quantum jumps. In TGD, the zero energy ontology (ZEO) combined with holography = holomorphy vision suggests a universal mechanism of memory storage and recall. The slight non-determinism of the classical field equations, determining the space-time surface, implies that quantum states are superpositions of space-time surfaces analogous to 4-D Bohr orbits for 3-surfaces as particles. In standard ontology they would be superpositions of 3-surfaces. State function reductions (SFRs) occur between these states and the information about the initial state (in 3-D sense) and about transition to the final state (in 3-D sense) is coded to the Bohr orbits associated with the final state (in 4-D sense). The slight on-determinism makes possible memory recall in ZEO. The proposed mechanism is universal and applies also to matter, which is usually regarded as "dead" (since it looks dead in the time scales of our perceptive abilities). This justifies the notion of the 4-dimensional brain. In this article the notion of memory is discussed from the points of view of computer science and neuroscience, of quantum theories of consciousness, and of TGD inspired theory of consciousness.
Even some physicists have now accepted "free will" into their vocabulary. However, many writers remain unaware of the distinctions between experienced time and the geometric time of physics. Thus, many of them make the error of eliminating conscious mind from the picture in the process of trying to understand free will. The outcome is that free will is something effective and emergent or free will is resulting from deterministic but non-predictable/non-computable process. In Topological Geometrodynamics (“TGD”), zero energy ontology would realize blocks as causal diamonds (“CD”) and would extend free will from a mere choice between given alternatives to creation of new worlds.
An innocent looking question "What F=maF=maF=ma means in TGD?", posed by Lawrence B. Crowell in a FB discussion, can be abstracted to the question how the transfers of conserved isometry charges of H=M4 x CP2 are realized at the level of fundamental interactions. At this level, the question is about how the conserved charges associated with the initial state particles are redistributed between the final state particles. Somewhat surprisingly, TGD based quantum ontology implies that quantum non-determinism is an essential part of the answer to the question. Equally surprisingly, also a connection with the theory of consciousness and cognition emerges at the fundamental elementary particle level. In the TGD view, the weak violation of the classical non-determinism in holography = holomorphy vision of TGD leads to the identification of self as a sequence of "small" state function reductions (SSFRs) identified as TGD counterparts of repeated measurements of the same observables: now however the observables related to the non-determinism are measured in SSFRs and give rise to the correlates of cognition. By quantum criticality, a "big" state function reduction (BSFR) as the TGD counterpart of what occurs in quantum measurement, can take place. BSFR means the death of self and its reincarnation with an opposite arrow of time. Quantum criticality of the TGD Universe, realized in terms of holography = holomorphy principle, would be essential for this. For instance, particle decay involving topological changes could correspond to this process and all particle interactions would basically be due to the quantum criticality so that instead of SSFR, BSFR takes place. Intention is transformed to action at fundamental level. Cognition is dangerous in the TGD Universe!
Gary Ehlenberg sent a link to an interesting Quanta Magazine article with the title "'Next-Level' Chaos Traces the True Limit of Predictability". The article discusses the limits to classical predictability as effective non-determinism due to non-computability caused by the initial value sensitivity although the classical dynamics is deterministic. There is also a genuine non-predictability due to non-determinism of quantum theory and quantum statistical determinism makes predictability possible in this case. Holography, which is not discussed in the article, simplifies the situation enormously since roughly one half of boundary values of initial values are reduced. In wave mechanics, holography corresponds to Bohr orbitology. In complex analysis, the holography corresponds to the reduction of the data defining the analytic function reduces to the residues at poles and discontinuities at cuts. In the TGD framework holography boils down to holography = holomorphy principle and allows an interesting point of view to the notion of classical chaos. The extremely nonlinear partial differential equations are reduced to algebraic equations. The case of 2-D minimal surfaces suggests that the holography is not completely deterministic and this forces zero energy ontology (ZEO). The discrete degrees of freedom related to classical non-determinism make conscious memory possible and could relate to the realization of intentions as actions. Number theoretic vision suggests that p-adic and adelic physics serves as correlates for cognition and intentionality and that p-adic non-determinism and classical non-determinisms in the real sector could relate. ZEO suggests a concrete mechanism for how intentions are realized as actions.