Where magic-state cultivation pays in early fault-tolerant quantum computing: a single-clock cost model of logical error mitigation and magic-state supply
Hikaru Wakaura, Taiki Tanimae
Abstract
Abstract Error-corrected quantum computers limited to small code distances trade physical qubits against the number of logical operations they can run. Two tools set that trade-off in the early fault-tolerant era: logical-level error mitigation, which cancels residual logical errors at a sampling cost exponential in the total error, and magic-state cultivation, which prepares non-Clifford resource states far more cheaply than distillation. Their resource estimates use different accountings of time, idle error, and consumption, so their combination has not been costed consistently. Here we build one cost model in which data block, factory, and sampling overhead share one clock and precision target, and show that whether cultivation pays is decided by two architectural numbers: the $T$-state demand per time step, $\rho=n_L u f_T$, which sets the factory area, and the exposure $N/u$, which sets the idle error, where $u$ is the fraction of the $n_L$ logical qubits acted on per step and $f_T$ the $T$ fraction. At $\rho\approx1$ adding cultivation to error mitigation saves $6$--$9\%$ of physical qubits; at $\rho\approx30$ it saves $71$--$85\%$ because factories dominate the footprint. The feasible circuit size grows by at most $1.8$--$2.7\times$ and never reaches $10^{10}$ operations at $d\le13$. We also identify a storage-limited error floor for 15-to-1 distillation confined to patch distance $d_X\le11$ ($3.7\times10^{-6}$ at error rate $10^{-3}$), compute the exact floor of the $d_1=3$ cultivation stage ($6.8\times10^{-7}$), show that escaping to $d_2=7$--$11$ costs $25$--$56\%$ of the published volume, and find that the error of a cultivated state given its decoder gap follows one curve per $d_1$ to within $2\times$. On reported logical error suppression factors, today's hardware supports only tens of mitigated logical operations; the regime opens below a physical error rate of $2\times10^{-3}$.