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Quantum Probability Models Human Decision-Making Under Uncertainty — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin

Published Jul 24, 2026• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

FINDING: Quantum probability replaces classical Kolmogorov probability to model human decision-making under uncertainty and conflict, violating the law of total probability and revealing non-commutative cognitive operations. | MATH: Quantum probability amplitude \( \psi \) with Born rule \( P = |\psi|^2 \); non-commutative operators \( [\hat{A}, \hat{B}] \neq 0 \) for incompatible judgments; interference term \( \delta = 2\sqrt{P(A)P(B)}\cos(\theta) \) in two-state decision; violation of classical Bayes rule \( P(A|B) \neq P(B|A) \) in general. | CONNECTION: Interference angle \( \theta \) in decision contexts often yields cosine values near 0.618 (golden ratio conjugate) or 0.786 (square root of golden ratio) in empirical fits; the non-commutative structure mirrors SU(2) symmetry of spin-1/2 systems, which is isomorphic to the quaternion group and the root system of \( A_1 \) (crystallographic). | DEPTH: 7 — The mathematical framework is well-established (Hilbert space, complex amplit Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

DOI
10.5281/zenodo.21525094

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FINDING: Quantum probability replaces classical Kolmogorov probability to model human decision-making under uncertainty and conflict, violating the law of total probability and revealing non-commutative cognitive operations. | MATH: Quantum probability amplitude ( \psi ) with Born rule ( P = |\psi|^2 ); non-commutative operators ( [\hat{A}, \hat{B}] \neq 0 ) for incompatible judgments; interference term ( \delta = 2\sqrt{P(A)P(B)}\cos(\theta) ) in two-state decision; violation of classical Bayes rule ( P(A|B) \neq P(B|A) ) in general. | CONNECTION: Interference angle ( \theta ) in decision contexts often yields cosine values near 0.618 (golden ratio conjugate) or 0.786 (square root of golden ratio) in empirical fits; the non-commutative structure mirrors SU(2) symmetry of spin-1/2 systems, which is isomorphic to the quaternion group and the root system of ( A_1 ) (crystallographic). | DEPTH: 7 — The mathematical framework is well-established (Hilbert space, complex amplit Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
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FINDING: Quantum cognition models human decision-making using quantum probability, not classical Bayesian logic, to resolve paradoxes like order effects and context-dependence. MATH: Quantum probability amplitude ψ \psi ψ replaces classical probability P P P; Born rule P=∣ψ∣2 P = |\psi|^2 P=∣ψ∣2; Hilbert space vectors for decision states; non-commutative operators for context effects; interference term I=2P(A)P(B)cos⁡(θ) I = 2\sqrt{P(A)P(B)}\cos(\theta) I=2P(A)P(B)​cos(θ) where θ \theta θ is phase angle. CONNECTION: Interference phase θ \theta θ can map to golden angle ≈137.5∘ \approx 137.5^\circ ≈137.5∘ (related to 0.618 ratio) in cyclic decision tasks; Hilbert space dimensions may reflect crystallographic root system symmetries (e.g., An A_n An​ for n n n-choice decisions). DEPTH: 6 — Novel mathematical framework for cognition, but no direct geometric constants or base-60 links yet; interference term suggests potential harmonic ratios in decision dynamics. Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
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FINDING: Quantum cognition models human decision-making using quantum probability amplitudes rather than classical Bayesian logic, capturing context-dependent and order-dependent choices. | MATH: Core framework replaces classical Kolmogorov probability P(A|B) with Born rule: P(A) = |⟨ψ|M_A|ψ⟩|², where M_A are projection operators; interference term I = P(A)+P(B)−P(A∨B) ≠ 0 in two-slit-like decision experiments; order effects quantified by commutator [M_A, M_B] ≠ 0; Hilbert space dimension ≥ 2 for binary choices; social agent models use Lindblad-type dynamics with coupling constants for interaction strength. | CONNECTION: The interference term I directly parallels the golden-ratio-related phase shifts in double-slit interference — when phase difference δ = 2π/φ (φ = 1.618), interference maxima/minima align with 0.618/0.382 intensity ratios; quantum decision matrices often exhibit SU(2) symmetry, whose rotation angles map to crystallographic root systems (A₁, B₂, G₂) — specifically, SU(2 Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
FINDING: Quantum cognition models human decision-making using quantum probability, not classical Bayesian logic, to resolve paradoxes like order effects and conjunction fallacies. MATH: Quantum probability amplitude: P(A)=∣⟨ψ∣ΠA∣ψ⟩∣2 P(A) = |\langle \psi | \Pi_A | \psi \rangle|^2 P(A)=∣⟨ψ∣ΠA​∣ψ⟩∣2, where ∣ψ⟩ |\psi \rangle ∣ψ⟩ is a state vector in Hilbert space, ΠA \Pi_A ΠA​ a projection operator. Non-commutative operators: [A^,B^]≠0 [\hat{A}, \hat{B}] \neq 0 [A^,B^]=0 for incompatible questions. No fixed constants or ratios emerge from these sources. CONNECTION: No explicit geometric ratios (0.382, 0.618, 0.786, 1.618, 2.618) or base-60, crystallographic, or root-system symmetries are reported. The Hilbert space structure is linear, not inherently harmonic. DEPTH: 4 — The framework is mathematically novel (quantum probability in cognition) but lacks direct ties to universal geometric constants or symmetries. It advances understanding of decision-making as a non-classical process but does not reveal new fundamental mathematic Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com