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Quantum Computing Threats to Modern Cryptography: Readiness Assessment and Post-Quantum Security Framework

sakir alim, Nitin Bodade

Published Jun 24, 2026• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

Abstract Classical computing architectures cannot reasonably solve computationally challenging problems, such as those of RSA public-key encryption, Diffie-Hellman key exchange, and elliptic curve cryptography, which form the cryptographic foundations of modern enterprise information security. Superposition and entanglement phenomena can be used to make quantum computers efficient in solving these problems, which are efficiently solved by Shor's algorithm and Grover's algorithm, and make existing cryptographic infrastructure entirely insecure. While quantum computing is fault-tolerant and still under development, the 'harvest now, decrypt later' threat model by which adversaries can harvest encrypted data now to be decrypted later when they can operate quantum systems signals that the cryptographic threat is present, not future. The objective of this study is to examine the current state of enterprise cryptographic readiness against threats in the quantum era and to create a model for organizational transition to the new cryptographic standards in the quantum era, which is called the Quantum-Resilient Security Architecture (QRSA) Framework. It uses a mixed-methods research methodology, consisting of a systematic literature review, an expert Delphi survey of 38 cybersecurity practitioners from 16 countries, and a qualitative analysis of five enterprise organizations, to examine the state of quantum-capable cryptographic protocols, the readiness of organizations in the technical, governance and capability aspects, and the most important enablers and blockers for the post-quantum migration. The key findings include that: 94 percent of enterprise systems assessed are today still using quantum-vulnerable cryptographic primitives; less than 12 percent of organizations surveyed have started formal planning efforts for quantum migration; and, in most of the cases analyzed, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) post-quantum cryptography standardization process has not made significant impacts on enterprise security roadmaps. The QRSA Framework offers a staged migration architecture based on the NIST standardized algorithms such as CRYSTALS-Kyber, CRYSTALS-Dilithium and SPHINCS+ that integrates with the enterprise security infrastructure. Contributions include cybersecurity governance scholarship, enterprise risk management theory, and information security policy.

DOI
10.21203/rs.3.rs-10120845/v1

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Abstract Classical computing architectures cannot reasonably solve computationally challenging problems, such as those of RSA public-key encryption, Diffie-Hellman key exchange, and elliptic curve cryptography, which form the cryptographic foundations of modern enterprise information security. Superposition and entanglement phenomena can be used to make quantum computers efficient in solving these problems, which are efficiently solved by Shor's algorithm and Grover's algorithm, and make existing cryptographic infrastructure entirely insecure. While quantum computing is fault-tolerant and still under development, the 'harvest now, decrypt later' threat model by which adversaries can harvest encrypted data now to be decrypted later when they can operate quantum systems signals that the cryptographic threat is present, not future. The objective of this study is to examine the current state of enterprise cryptographic readiness against threats in the quantum era and to create a model for organizational transition to the new cryptographic standards in the quantum era, which is called the Quantum-Resilient Security Architecture (QRSA) Framework. It uses a mixed-methods research methodology, consisting of a systematic literature review, an expert Delphi survey of 38 cybersecurity practitioners from 16 countries, and a qualitative analysis of five enterprise organizations, to examine the state of quantum-capable cryptographic protocols, the readiness of organizations in the technical, governance and capability aspects, and the most important enablers and blockers for the post-quantum migration. The key findings include that: 94 percent of enterprise systems assessed are today still using quantum-vulnerable cryptographic primitives; less than 12 percent of organizations surveyed have started formal planning efforts for quantum migration; and, in most of the cases analyzed, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) post-quantum cryptography standardization process has not made significant impacts on enterprise security roadmaps. The QRSA Framework offers a staged migration architecture based on the NIST standardized algorithms such as CRYSTALS-Kyber, CRYSTALS-Dilithium and SPHINCS+ that integrates with the enterprise security infrastructure. Contributions include cybersecurity governance scholarship, enterprise risk management theory, and information security policy.
Quantum computing is no longer a distant concern for cybersecurity planning. Its progress has raised serious questions about the long-term reliability of widely used public-key cryptographic systems, especially RSA, elliptic curve cryptography, and related key exchange mechanisms that currently protect digital communication, cloud services, financial transactions, government systems, and enterprise information assets. The main concern is that powerful quantum algorithms could weaken the mathematical assumptions on which these systems depend, creating future risks for encrypted data, digital signatures, identity systems, and secure network protocols (Shor, 1994; Mosca, 2018). Post-quantum cryptography has therefore become a major cybersecurity readiness priority, not only as a technical replacement for vulnerable algorithms, but as a broader organizational migration challenge. Effective preparation requires cryptographic asset inventory, risk classification, crypto-agility, vendor coordination, interoperability testing, and phased deployment across complex information systems (Kumar, 2022; Campbell, 2025). This article examines the cybersecurity implications of quantum computing and reviews the major post-quantum cryptographic algorithm families, current standardization efforts, enterprise migration barriers, and strategic readiness measures needed for the quantum computing era. It also discusses the importance of aligning post-quantum migration with existing cybersecurity governance, information systems management, and long-term digital resilience planning. By emphasizing early preparation, structured migration, and continuous cryptographic governance, the article argues that organizations can reduce future quantum-related exposure and strengthen the security of critical digital infrastructure before large-scale quantum attacks become practical (NIST, 2024; NCCoE, 2025).
With the arrival of fault-tolerant quantum computers, an existential threat has come to the cryptographic underpinnings of the security infrastructure in place for modern information technologies. Virtually all secure digital communication protocols used today are based on classical public-key cryptographic systems – RSA, Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) and Diffie-Hellman key exchange – that are susceptible to polynomial-time quantum attacks using Shor's algorithm. Symmetric cryptographic algorithms that are not broken are being effectively halved by Grover's algorithm, for example, AES. In this article, a complete and journal-standard systematic review of quantum computing and its implications in the field of information technology security is presented which includes 22 peer-reviewed publications from 2023-2025. The study covers the basics of quantum computing (qubits, superposition, entanglement and quantum gates), and how quantum computing specifically poses a threat to classical cryptography via algorithmic mechanisms. The three post-quantum cryptographic algorithms that were standardised by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in August 2024 (ML-KEM, FIPS 203; ML-DSA, FIPS 204; and SLH-DSA, FIPS 205) are compared based on their security assumptions, performance, and readiness for deployment. The practical limitations and the use of Quantum Key Distribution, (QKD), as a physics based alternative to the computational security assumptions are discussed. Results show that although mature PQ solutions are now available for most cryptographic applications, the migration challenge, including legacy system transitions, migration architecture, and governance, is significant and pressing as the ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ threat model is relevant and adversaries might be collecting encrypted data for quantum decryption. The impact for financial services, health care, government, cloud infrastructure and critical national infrastructure is discussed. Lastly, the researchers list key research areas: standardisation of quantum-safe protocols, hybrid PQC-QKD designs, light-weight PQC for constrained devices, and quantum-safe blockchain.
As quantum computers advance, they will fundamentally change the ways the information systems that currently secure communications, financial systems, healthcare records, government databases and critical infrastructure are protected. Although quantum technologies offer great promise for future scientific endeavors and processing power, they also present new dangers for cybersecurity. This paper explores the threats that are emerging as a result of Quantum Computing, focusing on the vulnerability of popular public-key cryptographic methods like RSA, Diffie–Hellman and Elliptic Curve Cryptography. The study also delves into the consequences of "harvest now, decrypt later": Information encrypted today could be made available when sufficiently strong quantum computers are ready. The research adopts a qualitative approach with a thorough literature survey of scholarly works on quantum-safe security standards, international cybersecurity frameworks, and recent advancements in the field. It evaluates the readiness of organizations, governments and technology vendors to deal with the changing threats of quantum computing. The study also highlights emerging counter measures, such as post quantum cryptography, quantum key distribution, cryptographic agility, zero trust security architectures, and risk-based migration strategies to build long-term cyber resilience. The results indicate that while large-scale quantum computers are still being developed which could compromise current encryption systems, it is important to plan ahead and implement quantum-resistant technologies to mitigate future security risks. To achieve quantum-safe cybersecurity, a concerted effort is needed, involving a collaboration between policymakers, researchers, industry players and standardization organizations, to provide secure digital ecosystems. In the end, the paper argues that a blend of quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions and adaptive cybersecurity governance and continuous innovation will be a critical enabler in protecting information assets in the quantum era. The study will contribute to the existing body of work on quantum cybersecurity and provide insights into the challenges and opportunities of creating secure and future-proof cybersecurity systems.
The maturation of quantum computing hardware and algorithms has transformed what was once a theoretical concern into an active planning priority for governments, enterprises, and standards bodies. This paper assesses the current and projected threat that quantum computation poses to classical public-key cryptographic standards, namely RSA, elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), and Diffie-Hellman key exchange, all of which derive their security from mathematical problems that Shor's algorithm renders tractable on a sufficiently large fault-tolerant quantum computer. We synthesize recent hardware progress, algorithmic refinements that have substantially reduced estimated qubit requirements, and the finalization of NIST's post-quantum cryptography (PQC) standards (FIPS 203, 204, and 205) to provide an evidence-based assessment of where the field stands as of mid-2026. Particular attention is given to the widening gap between optimistic resource estimates, including a contested March 2026 claim of a thousand-fold reduction in factoring resources, and the practical reality that no existing quantum computer approaches the logical qubit counts required to threaten deployed encryption. We further examine migration challenges, including performance overhead, cryptographic agility, constraints on embedded and IoT systems, and the harvest-now-decrypt-later threat model that makes migration urgency independent of exact timeline predictions. Drawing on NIST transition guidance and recent G7 coordination targets, we argue that organizations should treat cryptographic migration as a present-tense operational requirement rather than a future contingency, regardless of unresolved disagreement among experts about when a cryptographically relevant quantum computer will exist. The paper concludes with practical recommendations for risk-based migration prioritization and identifies open research questions in cryptographic agility and quantum-resistant system design.
Quantum computing poses an existential threat to classical public-key cryptography, particularly RSA and elliptic-curve systems, which form the backbone of secure communication, authentication, and digital trust. Once scalable quantum computers emerge, algorithms such as Shor’s will be capable of breaking these schemes, jeopardizing confidentiality and integrity across the internet and enterprise systems. Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) offers a viable defense, providing quantum-resistant algorithms that can be implemented on today’s hardware and protocols. Recent standardization milestones—including NIST’s approval of ML-KEM (Kyber) for key establishment, ML-DSA (Dilithium) and SLH-DSA (SPHINCS+) for signatures, and the selection of HQC as a complementary KEM—mark a turning point for practical adoption. This paper surveys the quantum threat model, algorithm families, performance trade-offs, and integration patterns such as hybrid modes and crypto-agile architectures. It further outlines a phased migration roadmap for enterprises, emphasizing harvest-now-decrypt-later risks and compliance imperatives. By bridging technical, operational, and policy perspectives, the study provides actionable guidance to prepare organizations for a secure and quantum-resilient future.
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the emerging threat that large-scale quantum computing poses to classical public-key cryptographic systems, particularly RSA and Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC), which form the backbone of contemporary digital security infrastructures. In response to this threat, the study aims to analyze post-quantum cryptography (PQC) as a viable long-term solution capable of resisting both classical and quantum adversaries. The paper further seeks to assess the urgency of PQC adoption in light of the “harvest now, decrypt later” threat model and to evaluate the practical readiness of quantum-safe cryptographic algorithms currently under consideration by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Materials and Methods: This study employs a qualitative and analytical research methodology grounded in an extensive review of authoritative sources, including NIST’s post-quantum cryptography standardization documents, recent academic literature, industry white papers, and policy reports from organizations such as RAND Corporation and Cloudflare. The analysis systematically surveys major families of post-quantum cryptographic algorithms namely lattice-based, code-based, and hash-based schemes and evaluates them based on security assumptions, computational efficiency, implementation complexity, and standardization maturity. Findings: The analysis indicates that Lattice-based cryptographic schemes demonstrate the highest maturity and practical readiness, evidenced by their selection in NIST’s PQC process. Code- and hash-based methods provide strong security but face key size and performance challenges. The lack of scalable quantum computers does not reduce urgency, as data harvesting persists. Artificial intelligence emerges as a key enabler for accelerating PQC adoption. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The paper recommends a proactive, phased post-quantum migration using hybrid cryptographic architectures. Organizations should conduct inventories, benchmarking, and pilot deployments aligned with NIST standards. AI-driven tools are advised to improve key management and reduce complexity. Continued interdisciplinary research and policy support are encouraged to ensure a secure, scalable transition to quantum-resistant security systems.