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Applied Sciences

A Framework for Quantum Resilience of Cryptocurrency Exchanges in the Context of Asymmetric Data Accumulation Threats

Бахытжан Сражатдинович Ахметов, Valery Lakhno, Gulnaz Zhilkishbayeva, Elvira Smagulova, Rysgul Maksatovna Bainazarova

Published Jun 4, 2026• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

The present paper addresses the problem of modeling the resilient operation of a cryptocurrency exchange (CEX) under delayed quantum attacks of the harvest-now-decrypt-later type. The proposed model diverges from extant approaches in its conceptualization of the quantum threat. Whereas extant approaches treat the quantum threat as an external shock, the proposed model conceptualizes the accumulation of cryptographically vulnerable data as an internal state variable of the system. The framework under consideration is formulated as a system of nonlinear differential equations linking the exchange’s liquidity, the intensity of post-quantum cryptography (PQC) adoption, and the volume of accumulated threat. The analytical conditions for asymptotic stability are derived. The resolution of the system enables the identification of a region of admissible defense strategies, which is interpreted in the paper as a “survival dome.” Numerical simulations demonstrate that both delayed and excessively aggressive migration strategies toward post-quantum cryptography may lead to the degradation of the exchange. The findings indicate that a balanced and adaptive transition strategy, aimed at mitigating quantum risks, can preserve liquidity while minimizing long-term losses. The findings establish a theoretical framework for the development of migration strategies for financial platforms undergoing a transition to post-quantum security standards.

DOI
10.3390/app16115663

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The present paper addresses the problem of modeling the resilient operation of a cryptocurrency exchange (CEX) under delayed quantum attacks of the harvest-now-decrypt-later type. The proposed model diverges from extant approaches in its conceptualization of the quantum threat. Whereas extant approaches treat the quantum threat as an external shock, the proposed model conceptualizes the accumulation of cryptographically vulnerable data as an internal state variable of the system. The framework under consideration is formulated as a system of nonlinear differential equations linking the exchange’s liquidity, the intensity of post-quantum cryptography (PQC) adoption, and the volume of accumulated threat. The analytical conditions for asymptotic stability are derived. The resolution of the system enables the identification of a region of admissible defense strategies, which is interpreted in the paper as a “survival dome.” Numerical simulations demonstrate that both delayed and excessively aggressive migration strategies toward post-quantum cryptography may lead to the degradation of the exchange. The findings indicate that a balanced and adaptive transition strategy, aimed at mitigating quantum risks, can preserve liquidity while minimizing long-term losses. The findings establish a theoretical framework for the development of migration strategies for financial platforms undergoing a transition to post-quantum security standards.
Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is driven by the threat posed by quantum computers, particularly the harvest-now-decrypt-later attack. PQC aims to prepare classical systems and hardware to become resilient against quantum attacks. This research discusses the system vulnerabilities, the need to migrate to PQC, and how to integrate this migration. PQC has become one of the solutions for addressing today’s vulnerabilities and threats while increasing security. The paper concludes that harvest-now-decrypt-later, Q-Day attacks, and new quantum attacks are today’s most critical threats, which can be addressed by deploying PQC solutions and, thus, increasing security. This research proposes a conceptual multi-phased model framework for the migration. The framework first addresses system objectives, goals and assets, then ranks assets based on the highest sensitivity. Crypto-Agility is achieved via the automation of PQC migration, such as the automation of re-keying endpoints, followed by the automation of auditing and testing of each migration stage. Human judgment is required to review the migration process. Once one asset is successfully transitioned, the framework goes to the next highest asset; otherwise, testing is repeated. This is expected to help systems migrate at the lowest cost and with the fewest consequences. However, the limitation of PQC migration is its high resource cost, time, requirement of human professionals, burden on existing systems, and financial expenses. Lastly, the paper recommends creating an ML model to help rank a system’s data and vulnerabilities. Moreover, the paper recommends conducting experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. In addition, the paper recommends performing migration in relation to a real-world company.
Quantum computing poses a significant threat to blockchain systems that rely on elliptic curve cryptography and other classical security mechanisms. Algorithms such as Shor’s and Grover’s can weaken or completely break the cryptographic foundations of current blockchain networks, exposing them to risks including private key recovery, transaction forgery, consensus manipulation, and harvest-now-decrypt-later attacks. This paper presents a systems framework for designing quantum-resilient blockchains by integrating post-quantum cryptographic standards, threat modeling, architectural redesign, governance mechanisms, and migration planning. The study evaluates major post-quantum cryptographic primitives, assesses their suitability for blockchain environments, and proposes a layered architecture grounded in crypto-agility, defense-in-depth, and forward secrecy. A structured migration strategy is also introduced to support the transition of existing blockchain networks toward post-quantum security while maintaining operational continuity and stakeholder trust. The framework provides practical guidance for researchers, developers, and policymakers preparing blockchain ecosystems for the post-quantum era.
The accelerating adoption of quantum computing poses both unprecedented opportunities and systemic risks for global financial systems. While quantum algorithms promise breakthroughs in portfolio optimization, risk modeling, and economic forecasting, the potential compromise of classical cryptographic infrastructures threatens the confidentiality, integrity, and stability of digital financial ecosystems. This study examines the interplay between quantum-resilient cryptography and macro-financial stability, proposing a dual-layer security-economic framework to guide the transition toward post-quantum financial architectures. We evaluate leading post-quantum cryptographic (PQC) standards—including lattice-based, hash-based, and code-based schemes—and assess their performance within high-frequency trading networks, interbank settlement systems, and blockchain-enabled financial platforms. Simulation-based analyses demonstrate that PQC integration introduces measurable computational overheads but significantly strengthens resistance against quantum-enabled cyberattacks, thereby mitigating systemic vulnerabilities that could cascade across financial markets. Our findings highlight that timely migration to quantum-safe cryptography is essential for preserving economic stability, protecting financial institutions from existential cyber risks, and ensuring the long-term resilience of digital economies in the quantum era.
The imminent maturation of Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQCs) represents a fundamental threat to the digital security infrastructure, specifically targeting modern cryptographic standards such as AES, RSA and Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC). While Post -Quantum Cryptography (PQC) offers a mathematical defense, the transition is complicated by the “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later ” (HNDL) strategy, where encrypted data is intercepted today for future decryption. This thesis explores the critical necessity of an organized migration strategy to protect long-term data sensitivity against the rapid advancement of quantum capabilities and addresses the gaps in the current migration landscape: the absence of a standardized, risk -based prioritization methodology, the absence of an AI based prioritization system to accommodate the approximate nature of variables involved, and a comparison of both the implementations. Finally, the technical deadlock surrounding non -upgradable legacy systems. Current literature often lacks a semi-quantified approach that uses data criticality as the primary criterion for migration triage. This thesis covers the void by introducing a framework supported by a custom software tool based on that assigns numerical priority scores based on data shelf -life and organizational risk and also implements the prioritization using Fuzzy Logic and them comparing the results of the two implementations to see which platform better suits the problem . Furthermore, the thesis tackles the challenge of legacy hosts that cannot support NIST-standardized algorithms, proposing a crypto -agile architectural solution that utilizes intermediate VPN terminals and SSH tunnels to wrap vulnerable traffic in quantum -resistant encryption. The results of this thesis demonstrate that a structured, data -centric approach can successfully mitigate quantum risk even in complex enterprise environments , furthermore it determines how a Fuzzy Logic based implementation better suits the approximate nature of the problem. Experimental validation through the “corp.com” simulation showed that implementing the proposed PQC -based SSH VPN reduced legacy host exposure to near zero while maintaining high operational performance. Despite the inherent computational overhead of PQC algorithms, the hybrid implementation experienced only a 15.7% increase in average round -trip time for 100 packets, significantly outperforming the 20% speed loss typically associated with hybrid PQC over networks. These findings provide a scientific and repeatable basis for organizational leaders to direct resources toward quantum-safe encryption without compromising network efficiency.
The advent of Quantum Computing (QC) poses significant threats to the cryptographic foundations of Blockchain (BC) systems, as quantum algorithms like Shor’s and Grover’s undermine the security of public-key cryptography and hash functions. This research conducts a comprehensive risk assessment of quantum vulnerabilities across critical BC components, including consensus mechanisms, smart contracts, and digital wallets. Leveraging the STRIDE threat modeling framework, we analyze threat vectors specific to QC, identifying key areas most susceptible to quantum-enabled attacks, such as private key compromise, consensus disruptions, and smart contract integrity risks. Our contributions provide actionable mitigation strategies, including a detailed security blueprint for quantum resilience, encompassing the integration of Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) and the adoption of quantum-resistant hash functions. We offer implementation best practices, focusing on key management, secure coding, and network security to strengthen BC components against quantum threats. To mitigate the risk of QC during transition from classical to quantum-resistant BCs, we present two hybrid BC architectures. As part of a comprehensive quantum resilience strategy, these architectures facilitate a secure and scalable migration by integrating platform-specific adaptations that balance security, adaptability, and operational efficiency. Our analysis extends to major BC platforms, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and Zcash, providing platform-specific vulnerability assessments and highlighting unique weaknesses in the quantum era. By identifying vulnerabilities, developing proactive defense strategies, and adopting a structured hybrid migration approach, this research equips BC stakeholders with a robust framework to achieve long-term quantum resilience. Finally, we explore challenges and research directions for integrating emerging technologies, including quantum machine learning, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Web3, with BC systems, and discuss new threats that may arise from this convergence in the QC era.
Quantum computing represents a paradigm shift that poses a profound threat to contemporary financial cryptographic systems. This study investigates the implications of quantum computing on classical encryption mechanisms and evaluates the effectiveness of post-quantum cryptographic solutions for securing financial transactions. Using a mixed-methods experimental approach, the study quantitatively analyzes the vulnerability of widely used cryptographic algorithms, including RSA, elliptic curve cryptography, and AES, under quantum attack models based on Shor’s and Grover’s algorithms. The results demonstrate a drastic reduction in security for asymmetric cryptographic schemes and a significant degradation in symmetric key strength, effectively halving their security margins. Qualitative risk analysis further reveals heightened exposure of financial systems to long-term data breaches, transaction manipulation, and regulatory non-compliance, particularly under “harvest-now, decrypt-later” scenarios. Post-quantum cryptographic schemes, including lattice-based and hash-based methods, are shown to provide robust resistance to quantum attacks while introducing manageable computational overhead. The findings highlight the importance of crypto-agility, hybrid cryptographic deployment, and early migration strategies to mitigate quantum-induced risks. This study concludes that the proactive adoption of quantum-safe cryptography is essential to preserving financial security, operational resilience, and trust in the emerging quantum era.