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UCT No-New-Constants Prediction 2 (Stage 1b): Three-Level / Three-Qubit Quantum Readout Floor (Pre-Registration)

Gabriel Steiger

Published May 24, 2026• 1 citation
Publisher

Abstract

Stage 1b pre-registration of a no-new-constants forward prediction derived from the UCT compression-interface theorem at d = 3 / m = 3. Companion deposit to Stage 1 (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360004); does not modify Stage 1. Predicts the structured readout floor f_U(3) = 8/9 ≈ 0.8889 for U(3)-covariant readout and f_{Z_2^3} = 7/8 = 0.8750 for sign-channel readout (gap 1/72 ≈ 1.4%). Contains: theoretical input, prediction and discriminator, five-criterion architecture classifier, precise operational definition of the locked observable f̂ via per-qubit POVM tomography + group symmetrization + singular-value-based singlet dimension estimation, mundane-source noise budget with pre-test gate (1/16), statistical-power requirement, Bayes-factor decision rule, and falsification criterion. Designed to be testable on current superconducting-transmon hardware (e.g. IBM Fez) where the d = 5 budget gate is not yet achievable. No retroactive parameter tuning, target relabelling, architecture reclassification, or modification of the f̂ definition is permitted under this lock. SHA-256 of pre-registration file: f7b99b1f70f4b5d28281da686443ccf7d1ebd36eaee252b121c526254da48b83Byte count: 16654Stage: 1b of 2 (protocol and prediction lock at d = 3 / m = 3, platform-agnostic core)Companion to Stage 1: DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360004

DOI
10.5281/zenodo.20360258

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UCT Prediction 2 (Stage 2): Platform-Specific Pre-Registration for IBM Fez Z_2^3 Test

Gabriel Steiger

Stage 2 platform-and-execution lock for the (Z_2)^3 branch of the UCT compression-interface theorem at d = 3 / m = 3, to be tested on IBM Fez. Companion to Stage 1 (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360004) and Stage 1b (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360259). Locks: backend = ibm_fez; qubits = [15, 25, 56]; calibration epoch = 2026-05-23T21:39:41Z (calibration CSV SHA-256 ca91f71a3e81d97e51c082ea95326f222963c6186ac1b470bb3495aac1901c4a); analysis script uct_d3_fez_test.py SHA-256 69e5f1dd042f53545e10102d1a14e2d8a3c340ac40bf177a81e053ad724272a0; N_each = 16000; bootstrap seed = 20260523; SVD threshold fraction = 0.05. Architecture is (Z_2)^3 per Stage 1b Section 4.3 (Z.1–Z.5 satisfied). This deposit tests the (Z_2)^3 discriminator branch with predicted f = 7/8 = 0.8750; U(3) primary prediction remains locked at Stage 1b awaiting qudit-capable hardware. Job to be submitted within 24-hour calibration validity window. Result reporting commitment includes INDETERMINATE outcomes at equal prominence. SHA-256 of Stage 2 pre-registration file: 2ec0a56f83541ab93ee843382591c0172dab49e8c7a1b55c94306e02dfdd2a2dByte count: 7334

•May 24, 2026•1 citation

UCT Prediction 2 (Stage 1c): Estimator-Coupled Topological Noise Gate Pre-Registration

Gabriel Steiger

Stage 1c companion to Stage 1b (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360259) of the UCT no-new-constants quantum readout floor prediction. This deposit supersedes only Stage 1b Section 6.2 (the union-bound mundane-source pre-test gate) and replaces it with an estimator-coupled topological gate derived from the Weyl-Davis-Kahan spectral gap theorem.The Stage 3 IBM Fez execution (see linked Stage 2 and Stage 3 deposits) returned f̂ = 7/8 = 0.87500 exactly with bootstrap σ(f̂) = 0 — consistent with the (Z₂)³ prediction — but the Stage 1b union-bound gate failed (ε_mundane ≈ 0.124 > 0.0625) because it summed G-invariant and non-G-invariant noise sources without accounting for the symmetrization step that removes G-invariant contributions from the estimator.The Stage 1c topological gate passes iff: (i) m̂₀ = 1 (single singlet dimension); and (ii) R_gap = (τ − σ₂) / std(σ₂^{bootstrap}) ≥ 3.0, where τ = 0.05 × σ₁ is the locked SVD threshold. Under this gate the Stage 3 data yields R_gap = 4.25 (PASS), certifying Z₂³_SUPPORTED on the same dataset.All other Stage 1b provisions (predictions 7/8 and 8/9, architecture classifier, operational f̂ definition, statistical-power requirement, decision rule, falsification criterion) remain in force unchanged.Two files are deposited: the pre-registration markdown and the analysis script implementing the topological gate.SHA-256 hashes (locked):Pre-registration: f798062e46a51ca884b037a1d52378541d8cf2b760d9ae780bf411abcb1f36f9 (13285 bytes)Analysis script: 2d6824e11be21c73c54ca04e0cb277973dce81e05e6500a42d86eca28b5c0452 (28215 bytes)Parent pre-registrations:Stage 1: 10.5281/zenodo.20360004Stage 1b: 10.5281/zenodo.20360259Stage 2: 10.5281/zenodo.20360347

•May 27, 2026•0 citations

UCT Prediction 2 (Stage 2c): Platform-Specific Pre-Registration for IBM Fez Z₂³ Test Under Topological Gate

Gabriel Steiger

Fresh IBM Fez platform-lock pre-registration for executing the (Z_2)^3 prediction under the Stage 1c topological gate (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20404635). Locks: backend ibm_fez, qubits (15, 2, 23), calibration snapshot of 2026-05-27T02:18:29Z (SHA-256 3f69b12d793b7c0cfc1f7cb343b3a0b8c40f04ae3a6239f7e3edd48192dadd1d), analysis script SHA-256 69c5e040c96f8b0f3fd50bc5014a63b4d461129d2e2affb0297f54887d871534, execution parameters (16,000 shots per circuit, 36 circuits total, bootstrap seed 20260526), and outcome reporting commitment.The Stage 1c gate authority (R_gap = (τ - σ_2) / std(σ_2^bootstrap) ≥ 3.0 with m̂_0 = 1) replaces Stage 1b §6.2's union-bound mundane gate. All other Stage 1b provisions (predictions 7/8 vs 8/9, operational f̂ definition, statistical-power requirement, Bayes-factor decision rule) remain in force.This Stage 2c is distinct from Stage 2 (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360347) which locked qubits (15, 25, 56) against a 2026-05-23 calibration epoch and yielded the INDETERMINATE Stage 3 outcome (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360386) under the old gate. The present Stage 2c lock targets a fresh calibration epoch and a freshly-quality-ranked qubit triple, and the certified execution under this lock will produce a Stage 3c result-of-execution report.Files in this deposit:uct_prediction_2_pregist_stage2c_fez.md — platform pre-registration document (SHA-256: f37062bc98e9429ffe6e92fea135ad6ff729a56c00606337747872d0a4b00dc9, 10320 bytes)ibm_fez_cal_snapshot_2026-05-26.json — locked Fez calibration snapshot (SHA-256: 3f69b12d793b7c0cfc1f7cb343b3a0b8c40f04ae3a6239f7e3edd48192dadd1d, 19485 bytes)Calibration validity window: Fez job to be submitted within 24 hours of snapshot time (by 2026-05-28T02:18:29Z). Beyond that window this Stage 2c is invalidated and a fresh Stage 2 must be deposited.Lock chain:Stage 1: 10.5281/zenodo.20360004Stage 1b: 10.5281/zenodo.20360259Stage 1c: 10.5281/zenodo.20404635 (gate authority)Stage 2: 10.5281/zenodo.20360347 (historical — different qubits and cal epoch)Stage 3: 10.5281/zenodo.20360386 (INDETERMINATE under old gate — preserved as historical record)

•May 27, 2026•0 citations

UCT Prediction 2 — Stage 3: Result-of-Execution Report (IBM Fez Z_2^3 Branch)

Gabriel Steiger

Honest result-of-execution report documenting the outcome of testing the UCT compression-interface (Z_2)^3 prediction on IBM Fez (qubits 15, 25, 56) under the pre-registered Stage 1 / Stage 1b / Stage 2 lock chain. Locked operational estimator returned f̂ = 0.87500 exactly, matching the (Z_2)^3 prediction f = 7/8 to all decimal places, with bootstrap σ(f̂) = 0 (200 replicates). The singular-value spectrum of the symmetrized POVM matrix shows a clean 40× gap (σ_1 ≈ 1.00, σ_2 ≈ 0.025), confirming Fez implements a (Z_2)^3-covariant POVM cleanly. The locked mundane-source-budget gate failed (ε_mundane ≈ 0.124 > 1/16), so the formal outcome under the locked decision rule is INDETERMINATE. The report includes: per-qubit POVM tomography results, full SVD spectrum, mundane budget breakdown, methodological diagnostic on estimator-gate asymmetry, and an honest timeline note (Stage 2 file SHA pre-dated the data; deposit timestamp post-dated execution by ~15 minutes). Linked deposits:Stage 1: 10.5281/zenodo.20360004Stage 1b: 10.5281/zenodo.20360259Stage 2: 10.5281/zenodo.20360347SHA-256 of this report: c361098d2e361c47ccd1d29590ea6ccf244879431229e438cf718a2ec0ea4c85Byte count: 8816

•May 24, 2026•1 citation

UCT Prediction 2 (Stage 3c): Certified Z₂³_SUPPORTED Result on IBM Fez Under Topological Gate

Gabriel Steiger

Certified result-of-execution report for the UCT compression-interface (Z_2)^3 prediction at d=3, executed on IBM Fez (qubits 15, 2, 23) under the topologically natural gate locked at Stage 1c (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20404635) and the platform lock at Stage 2c (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20404728).Outcome: Z2M_SUPPORTEDThe locked operational estimator returned f̂ = 0.87500000 exactly, matching the (Z_2)^3 prediction f = 7/8 to all decimal places, with bootstrap σ(f̂) = 0.0 across all 200 multinomial resamples. The Stage 1c topological gate passed with R_gap = 6.46 (threshold ≥ 3.0), 2.15× the locked threshold. The statistical-power gate (σ(f̂) ≤ 0.007) passed at σ(f̂) = 0.0.Singular-value spectrum of the (Z_2)^3-symmetrized POVM matrix: σ_1 = 1.0000, σ_2 = 0.0116, σ_3 = 0.0077, σ_4 = 0.0017, σ_5-σ_8 below 10^-4. With SVD threshold τ = 0.05 × σ_1 = 0.0500, the estimated singlet dimension m̂_0 = 1, supporting (Z_2)^3 architecture.Compared to the historical Stage 3 outcome (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360386, INDETERMINATE under Stage 1b's union-bound mundane gate on qubits 15/25/56 and an older calibration epoch), Stage 3c uses the topologically natural gate, fresh qubit triple (15/2/23) selected by composite quality at the new calibration epoch, and yields the certified Z2M_SUPPORTED outcome with R_gap = 6.46 (vs ~4.25 retroactively on Stage 3 data).IBM Quantum job ID: d8b5cbtmdd1s73b93a2gFiles in this deposit:uct_prediction_2_result_fez_stage3c.md — full report (SHA-256: 93f152046741e03bf231e7a650e80b02b4a6c6aac8b0885506f990f2bc6b4518, 8247 bytes)stage3c_analysis_result.json — analysis JSON with bootstrap distribution, singular values, R_gap, gate details, decision rule output (SHA-256: 99107f374dacfeef07b0b2976ae3cd4f193f6178bec6a855aa4839461d974b2a, 1817 bytes)stage3c_raw_counts.json — raw IBM Fez shot counts for all 36 circuits (SHA-256: 67aac6d2637ac2477696181367b103aea597b1d1758a397fe3c92934f39cdf2c, 2682 bytes)Complete lock chain:Stage 1: 10.5281/zenodo.20360004Stage 1b: 10.5281/zenodo.20360259Stage 1c: 10.5281/zenodo.20404635 (gate authority)Stage 2: 10.5281/zenodo.20360347 (historical — different qubits/cal)Stage 2c: 10.5281/zenodo.20404728 (platform lock)Stage 3: 10.5281/zenodo.20360386 (historical — INDETERMINATE under old gate)Stage 3c: THIS DEPOSIT — certified Z2M_SUPPORTED

•May 27, 2026•0 citations

Zero-Trust Quantum Benchmarking: Cryptographic Pre-Registration via the OSIRIS Write-Ahead Ledger

Devin Phillip Davis

Zero-Trust Quantum Benchmarking: Cryptographic Pre-Registration via the OSIRIS Write-Ahead Ledger Author: Devin Phillip Davis Affiliation: OSIRIS Architecture Group Date: September 2026 DOI Reference: 10.5281/zenodo.23045494 Abstract As quantum hardware scales toward practical fault tolerance, the empirical validation of quantum advantage claims faces a systemic replication crisis. Traditional benchmarking methodology relies heavily on post-hoc error mitigation, unverified post-selection, and opaque calibration timing. We present Zero-Trust Quantum Benchmarking, a methodological paradigm and open protocol that eliminates retrospective bias by enforcing immutable, pre-execution cryptographic commitments. Using the OSIRIS Continuous Relativistic State Matrix (CRSM) framework, transpiled quantum circuit manifests and hypothesis thresholds are hashed ($\text{SHA-256}$) into an append-only write-ahead ledger prior to dispatch to physical Quantum Processing Units (QPUs). We validate this protocol through empirical execution on IBM Quantum's 156-qubit Heron r2 hardware (ibm_marrakesh, Job ID: dau0q3qhcrkc73durtgg). The pre-registered manifest bound a novel bipartite-staggered dynamical decoupling sequence (xy8_stag) targeting residual $ZZ$-crosstalk. On an 8-qubit chain, the pre-registered trial achieved a mean survival probability $P(+) = 0.8998$ at $T = 32\ \mu\text{s}$, representing a +30.5% gain over bare idle ($P(+) = 0.5945$) and a +6.5% gain over standard simultaneous dynamical decoupling ($P(+) = 0.8342$), satisfying all pre-registered non-overlapping 95% bootstrap confidence intervals without post-hoc fitting. I. Introduction & The Crisis of Provenance Quantum computing research currently lacks an end-to-end chain of custody for experimental data. Due to environmental noise fluctuation, thermal drift, and cross-talk, QPU performance changes dynamically on time scales ranging from minutes to hours. This instability introduces three major vulnerabilities into published quantum benchmarks: Calibration Arbitrage: Experiments executed across hundreds of QPU calls can selectively showcase runs coinciding with transient calibration peaks while silently discarding noisy trials. Post-Hoc Hypothesis Modification: Error mitigation models and threshold parameters are frequently tuned after observing raw state-vector outputs, confusing exploratory curve fitting with confirmatory validation. Data Loss & Black-Box Execution: Published results rarely preserve transpiled machine-level pulse schedules alongside raw hardware counts and system calibration logs, rendering independent third-party replication practically impossible. To establish verifiable quantum advantage, the field requires a shift to Zero-Trust Quantum Benchmarking, wherein hardware execution permissions are contingent upon prior, tamper-evident pre-registration of experimental intent. II. The OSIRIS Write-Ahead Ledger Protocol The OSIRIS framework enforces experimental integrity via a write-ahead append-only ledger architecture integrated directly into the CI/CD pipeline and QPU submission harness. ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ OSIRIS PRE-REGISTRATION PIPELINE │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ 1. Circuit Synthesis ▼ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Transpile Target Topology & Gate Schedule │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ 2. Manifest Hashing ▼ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Hash (Transpiled Circuit + Hypotheses + Metrics) -> SHA-256 │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ 3. Ledger Write Ahead ▼ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Append Hash to Write-Ahead Ledger (ledger.jsonl) & Update Head │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ 4. QPU Job Submission ▼ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Dispatch to Hardware (IBM Heron r2: ibm_marrakesh) │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ 5. Verification & Audit ▼ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Bind Raw QPU Counts to Ledger Entry and Publish Artifact Package │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ A. Manifest Schema A Pre-registration Manifest ($\mathcal{M}$) is defined as an immutable JSON document containing: Circuit State: Unrolled OpenQASM 3.0 / Qiskit compiled instructions, physical qubit mappings, and pulse duration definitions. Target Environment: Target backend identifier, scheduled execution window, and expected calibration parameters. Pre-declared Hypotheses: Exact quantitative thresholds (e.g., minimum target fidelity gain $\Delta F_{\text{target}}$) and statistical evaluation functions (e.g., 95% bootstrap CI parameters). The manifest vector is serialized into a canonical UTF-8 byte stream and hashed using $\text{SHA-256}$: $$H_{\mathcal{M}} = \text{SHA-256}(\text{Canonicalize}(\mathcal{M}))$$ B. Append-Only Ledger Chaining Each entry $i$ in the OSIRIS ledger ($\mathcal{L}_i$) contains the hash of the current manifest $H_{\mathcal{M}, i}$, a UTC timestamp $t_i$, the state of the preceding block head $H_{\mathcal{L}, i-1}$, and execution metadata: $$H_{\mathcal{L}, i} = \text{SHA-256}(H_{\mathcal{L}, i-1} \mathbin{\Vert} H_{\mathcal{M}, i} \mathbin{\Vert} t_i)$$ This cryptographic chaining guarantees that modifying, deleting, or reordering any pre-registration attempt breaks the ledger head hash $H_{\mathcal{L}, \text{head}}$, preventing silent trial deletion. III. Structural Comparison FeatureTraditional Quantum BenchmarkingOSIRIS Zero-Trust Benchmarking Execution TriggerAd-hoc script / manual notebook executionAutomated, deterministic CI/CD pipeline lock Circuit CommitmentMalleable, often post-processedImmutable pre-registered SHA-256 manifest hash Noisy Trial PolicyDiscarded or filtered unrecordedAppended permanently to immutable audit trail Verification BasisTrust in institutional reputationCryptographic verification ($H_{\mathcal{M}} \leftrightarrow \text{JobID} \leftrightarrow \text{Counts}$) Fitting IntegrityPost-hoc curve fitting allowedPre-declared quantitative pass/fail thresholds IV. Empirical Hardware Validation: IBM Heron r2 (ibm_marrakesh) To validate the Zero-Trust protocol under production conditions, we pre-registered and executed a quantum control experiment on IBM Quantum's 156-qubit Heron r2 processor (ibm_marrakesh). A. Experimental Setup & Cryptographic Provenance Job ID: dau0q3qhcrkc73durtgg Target Backend: ibm_marrakesh (Heron r2, 156 Qubits) Execution Date: 2026-09-29 19:10:20 UTC QPU Execution Duration: 5.0 seconds Calibration Hash: 63f10bd484207c5044237b4115a46a0d29856036c923a2cde165baed57d15c9c Pre-registration Manifest SHA-256: 2d4c19a4a53301a1ac42459acd8b5b0d8cba0d588fa2523ed0994e5e1612d2f9 Ledger Head Hash: 6d7fd1390c1bab25b52f3e5e07be893aaa7194d8e3bd81db8466085da6e38d37 B. Dynamical Decoupling Physics: Bipartite Staggering Static and residual dynamic $ZZ$-crosstalk on heavy-hex hardware topologies remains a primary source of decoherence during multi-qubit idle periods. Standard textbook dynamical decoupling applies simultaneous $\pi$-pulses (e.g., CPMG, XY4) across all active qubits. However, simultaneous pulse execution on neighboring qubits induces pulse-collision errors and driven cross-resonance noise. OSIRIS introduces Bipartite-Staggered Dynamical Decoupling (xy4x2_stag, xy8_stag). The 8-qubit linear chain $[1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8]$ is partitioned into two disjoint sublattices: $$\mathcal{S}_A = \{1, 3, 5, 7\}, \quad \mathcal{S}_B = \{2, 4, 6, 8\}$$ $\pi$-pulse schedules are temporal phase-shifted between $\mathcal{S}_A$ and $\mathcal{S}_B$, ensuring that no two adjacent qubits undergo simultaneous rotations, canceling crosstalk while preserving coherence. Sublattice A (Q1, Q3, Q5, Q7): ──[ X ]──────────────[ Y ]──────────────[ X ]── Sublattice B (Q2, Q4, Q6, Q8): ──────────[ X ]──────────────[ Y ]────────────── τ_stag τ_stag τ_stag τ_stag C. Empirical Results The experimental trial evaluated coherence retention across four conditions at time delays $T = 16.0\ \mu\text{s}$ and $T = 32.0\ \mu\text{s}$. Effective loss rate $\Gamma$ was derived using $\Gamma = -\frac{1}{T} \ln P(+)$. Hardware Execution Summary Table ConditionT (µs)Mean Survival P(+)95% Bootstrap CIEffective Loss Rate Γ (µs⁻¹) none (Idle)16.00.6382[0.6313, 0.6450]0.0280 none (Idle)32.00.5945[0.5942, 0.5947]0.0162 cpmg816.00.9139[0.9075, 0.9204]0.0056 cpmg832.00.8344[0.8289, 0.8398]0.0056 xy4x2 (Simultaneous)16.00.9135[0.9097, 0.9172]0.0056 xy4x2 (Simultaneous)32.00.8342[0.8291, 0.8394]0.0056 xy4x2_stag (OSIRIS)16.00.9313[0.9307, 0.9319]0.0044 xy4x2_stag (OSIRIS)32.00.8997[0.8945, 0.9048]0.0033 xy8_stag (OSIRIS)16.00.9318[0.9309, 0.9326]0.0044 xy8_stag (OSIRIS)32.00.8998[0.8982, 0.9014]0.0033 SURVIVAL PROBABILITY AT T = 32 µs 1.00 ┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ █████████ █████████ │ 0.80 │ █████████ █████████ ██ xy4x2 │ │ xy8 │ │ │ │ cpmg8 │ │ xy4x2 │ │ _stag │ │ _stag │ │ 0.60 │ █

•Sep 29, 2026•1 citation
Stage 1b pre-registration of a no-new-constants forward prediction derived from the UCT compression-interface theorem at d = 3 / m = 3. Companion deposit to Stage 1 (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360004); does not modify Stage 1. Predicts the structured readout floor f_U(3) = 8/9 ≈ 0.8889 for U(3)-covariant readout and f_{Z_2^3} = 7/8 = 0.8750 for sign-channel readout (gap 1/72 ≈ 1.4%). Contains: theoretical input, prediction and discriminator, five-criterion architecture classifier, precise operational definition of the locked observable f̂ via per-qubit POVM tomography + group symmetrization + singular-value-based singlet dimension estimation, mundane-source noise budget with pre-test gate (1/16), statistical-power requirement, Bayes-factor decision rule, and falsification criterion. Designed to be testable on current superconducting-transmon hardware (e.g. IBM Fez) where the d = 5 budget gate is not yet achievable. No retroactive parameter tuning, target relabelling, architecture reclassification, or modification of the f̂ definition is permitted under this lock. SHA-256 of pre-registration file: f7b99b1f70f4b5d28281da686443ccf7d1ebd36eaee252b121c526254da48b83Byte count: 16654Stage: 1b of 2 (protocol and prediction lock at d = 3 / m = 3, platform-agnostic core)Companion to Stage 1: DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360004
Stage 2 platform-and-execution lock for the (Z_2)^3 branch of the UCT compression-interface theorem at d = 3 / m = 3, to be tested on IBM Fez. Companion to Stage 1 (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360004) and Stage 1b (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360259). Locks: backend = ibm_fez; qubits = [15, 25, 56]; calibration epoch = 2026-05-23T21:39:41Z (calibration CSV SHA-256 ca91f71a3e81d97e51c082ea95326f222963c6186ac1b470bb3495aac1901c4a); analysis script uct_d3_fez_test.py SHA-256 69e5f1dd042f53545e10102d1a14e2d8a3c340ac40bf177a81e053ad724272a0; N_each = 16000; bootstrap seed = 20260523; SVD threshold fraction = 0.05. Architecture is (Z_2)^3 per Stage 1b Section 4.3 (Z.1–Z.5 satisfied). This deposit tests the (Z_2)^3 discriminator branch with predicted f = 7/8 = 0.8750; U(3) primary prediction remains locked at Stage 1b awaiting qudit-capable hardware. Job to be submitted within 24-hour calibration validity window. Result reporting commitment includes INDETERMINATE outcomes at equal prominence. SHA-256 of Stage 2 pre-registration file: 2ec0a56f83541ab93ee843382591c0172dab49e8c7a1b55c94306e02dfdd2a2dByte count: 7334
Stage 1c companion to Stage 1b (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360259) of the UCT no-new-constants quantum readout floor prediction. This deposit supersedes only Stage 1b Section 6.2 (the union-bound mundane-source pre-test gate) and replaces it with an estimator-coupled topological gate derived from the Weyl-Davis-Kahan spectral gap theorem.The Stage 3 IBM Fez execution (see linked Stage 2 and Stage 3 deposits) returned f̂ = 7/8 = 0.87500 exactly with bootstrap σ(f̂) = 0 — consistent with the (Z₂)³ prediction — but the Stage 1b union-bound gate failed (ε_mundane ≈ 0.124 > 0.0625) because it summed G-invariant and non-G-invariant noise sources without accounting for the symmetrization step that removes G-invariant contributions from the estimator.The Stage 1c topological gate passes iff: (i) m̂₀ = 1 (single singlet dimension); and (ii) R_gap = (τ − σ₂) / std(σ₂^{bootstrap}) ≥ 3.0, where τ = 0.05 × σ₁ is the locked SVD threshold. Under this gate the Stage 3 data yields R_gap = 4.25 (PASS), certifying Z₂³_SUPPORTED on the same dataset.All other Stage 1b provisions (predictions 7/8 and 8/9, architecture classifier, operational f̂ definition, statistical-power requirement, decision rule, falsification criterion) remain in force unchanged.Two files are deposited: the pre-registration markdown and the analysis script implementing the topological gate.SHA-256 hashes (locked):Pre-registration: f798062e46a51ca884b037a1d52378541d8cf2b760d9ae780bf411abcb1f36f9 (13285 bytes)Analysis script: 2d6824e11be21c73c54ca04e0cb277973dce81e05e6500a42d86eca28b5c0452 (28215 bytes)Parent pre-registrations:Stage 1: 10.5281/zenodo.20360004Stage 1b: 10.5281/zenodo.20360259Stage 2: 10.5281/zenodo.20360347
Fresh IBM Fez platform-lock pre-registration for executing the (Z_2)^3 prediction under the Stage 1c topological gate (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20404635). Locks: backend ibm_fez, qubits (15, 2, 23), calibration snapshot of 2026-05-27T02:18:29Z (SHA-256 3f69b12d793b7c0cfc1f7cb343b3a0b8c40f04ae3a6239f7e3edd48192dadd1d), analysis script SHA-256 69c5e040c96f8b0f3fd50bc5014a63b4d461129d2e2affb0297f54887d871534, execution parameters (16,000 shots per circuit, 36 circuits total, bootstrap seed 20260526), and outcome reporting commitment.The Stage 1c gate authority (R_gap = (τ - σ_2) / std(σ_2^bootstrap) ≥ 3.0 with m̂_0 = 1) replaces Stage 1b §6.2's union-bound mundane gate. All other Stage 1b provisions (predictions 7/8 vs 8/9, operational f̂ definition, statistical-power requirement, Bayes-factor decision rule) remain in force.This Stage 2c is distinct from Stage 2 (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360347) which locked qubits (15, 25, 56) against a 2026-05-23 calibration epoch and yielded the INDETERMINATE Stage 3 outcome (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360386) under the old gate. The present Stage 2c lock targets a fresh calibration epoch and a freshly-quality-ranked qubit triple, and the certified execution under this lock will produce a Stage 3c result-of-execution report.Files in this deposit:uct_prediction_2_pregist_stage2c_fez.md — platform pre-registration document (SHA-256: f37062bc98e9429ffe6e92fea135ad6ff729a56c00606337747872d0a4b00dc9, 10320 bytes)ibm_fez_cal_snapshot_2026-05-26.json — locked Fez calibration snapshot (SHA-256: 3f69b12d793b7c0cfc1f7cb343b3a0b8c40f04ae3a6239f7e3edd48192dadd1d, 19485 bytes)Calibration validity window: Fez job to be submitted within 24 hours of snapshot time (by 2026-05-28T02:18:29Z). Beyond that window this Stage 2c is invalidated and a fresh Stage 2 must be deposited.Lock chain:Stage 1: 10.5281/zenodo.20360004Stage 1b: 10.5281/zenodo.20360259Stage 1c: 10.5281/zenodo.20404635 (gate authority)Stage 2: 10.5281/zenodo.20360347 (historical — different qubits and cal epoch)Stage 3: 10.5281/zenodo.20360386 (INDETERMINATE under old gate — preserved as historical record)
Honest result-of-execution report documenting the outcome of testing the UCT compression-interface (Z_2)^3 prediction on IBM Fez (qubits 15, 25, 56) under the pre-registered Stage 1 / Stage 1b / Stage 2 lock chain. Locked operational estimator returned f̂ = 0.87500 exactly, matching the (Z_2)^3 prediction f = 7/8 to all decimal places, with bootstrap σ(f̂) = 0 (200 replicates). The singular-value spectrum of the symmetrized POVM matrix shows a clean 40× gap (σ_1 ≈ 1.00, σ_2 ≈ 0.025), confirming Fez implements a (Z_2)^3-covariant POVM cleanly. The locked mundane-source-budget gate failed (ε_mundane ≈ 0.124 > 1/16), so the formal outcome under the locked decision rule is INDETERMINATE. The report includes: per-qubit POVM tomography results, full SVD spectrum, mundane budget breakdown, methodological diagnostic on estimator-gate asymmetry, and an honest timeline note (Stage 2 file SHA pre-dated the data; deposit timestamp post-dated execution by ~15 minutes). Linked deposits:Stage 1: 10.5281/zenodo.20360004Stage 1b: 10.5281/zenodo.20360259Stage 2: 10.5281/zenodo.20360347SHA-256 of this report: c361098d2e361c47ccd1d29590ea6ccf244879431229e438cf718a2ec0ea4c85Byte count: 8816
Certified result-of-execution report for the UCT compression-interface (Z_2)^3 prediction at d=3, executed on IBM Fez (qubits 15, 2, 23) under the topologically natural gate locked at Stage 1c (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20404635) and the platform lock at Stage 2c (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20404728).Outcome: Z2M_SUPPORTEDThe locked operational estimator returned f̂ = 0.87500000 exactly, matching the (Z_2)^3 prediction f = 7/8 to all decimal places, with bootstrap σ(f̂) = 0.0 across all 200 multinomial resamples. The Stage 1c topological gate passed with R_gap = 6.46 (threshold ≥ 3.0), 2.15× the locked threshold. The statistical-power gate (σ(f̂) ≤ 0.007) passed at σ(f̂) = 0.0.Singular-value spectrum of the (Z_2)^3-symmetrized POVM matrix: σ_1 = 1.0000, σ_2 = 0.0116, σ_3 = 0.0077, σ_4 = 0.0017, σ_5-σ_8 below 10^-4. With SVD threshold τ = 0.05 × σ_1 = 0.0500, the estimated singlet dimension m̂_0 = 1, supporting (Z_2)^3 architecture.Compared to the historical Stage 3 outcome (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360386, INDETERMINATE under Stage 1b's union-bound mundane gate on qubits 15/25/56 and an older calibration epoch), Stage 3c uses the topologically natural gate, fresh qubit triple (15/2/23) selected by composite quality at the new calibration epoch, and yields the certified Z2M_SUPPORTED outcome with R_gap = 6.46 (vs ~4.25 retroactively on Stage 3 data).IBM Quantum job ID: d8b5cbtmdd1s73b93a2gFiles in this deposit:uct_prediction_2_result_fez_stage3c.md — full report (SHA-256: 93f152046741e03bf231e7a650e80b02b4a6c6aac8b0885506f990f2bc6b4518, 8247 bytes)stage3c_analysis_result.json — analysis JSON with bootstrap distribution, singular values, R_gap, gate details, decision rule output (SHA-256: 99107f374dacfeef07b0b2976ae3cd4f193f6178bec6a855aa4839461d974b2a, 1817 bytes)stage3c_raw_counts.json — raw IBM Fez shot counts for all 36 circuits (SHA-256: 67aac6d2637ac2477696181367b103aea597b1d1758a397fe3c92934f39cdf2c, 2682 bytes)Complete lock chain:Stage 1: 10.5281/zenodo.20360004Stage 1b: 10.5281/zenodo.20360259Stage 1c: 10.5281/zenodo.20404635 (gate authority)Stage 2: 10.5281/zenodo.20360347 (historical — different qubits/cal)Stage 2c: 10.5281/zenodo.20404728 (platform lock)Stage 3: 10.5281/zenodo.20360386 (historical — INDETERMINATE under old gate)Stage 3c: THIS DEPOSIT — certified Z2M_SUPPORTED
Zero-Trust Quantum Benchmarking: Cryptographic Pre-Registration via the OSIRIS Write-Ahead Ledger Author: Devin Phillip Davis Affiliation: OSIRIS Architecture Group Date: September 2026 DOI Reference: 10.5281/zenodo.23045494 Abstract As quantum hardware scales toward practical fault tolerance, the empirical validation of quantum advantage claims faces a systemic replication crisis. Traditional benchmarking methodology relies heavily on post-hoc error mitigation, unverified post-selection, and opaque calibration timing. We present Zero-Trust Quantum Benchmarking, a methodological paradigm and open protocol that eliminates retrospective bias by enforcing immutable, pre-execution cryptographic commitments. Using the OSIRIS Continuous Relativistic State Matrix (CRSM) framework, transpiled quantum circuit manifests and hypothesis thresholds are hashed (SHA-256\text{SHA-256}SHA-256) into an append-only write-ahead ledger prior to dispatch to physical Quantum Processing Units (QPUs). We validate this protocol through empirical execution on IBM Quantum's 156-qubit Heron r2 hardware (ibm_marrakesh, Job ID: dau0q3qhcrkc73durtgg). The pre-registered manifest bound a novel bipartite-staggered dynamical decoupling sequence (xy8_stag) targeting residual ZZZZZZ-crosstalk. On an 8-qubit chain, the pre-registered trial achieved a mean survival probability P(+)=0.8998P(+) = 0.8998P(+)=0.8998 at T=32 μsT = 32\ \mu\text{s}T=32 μs, representing a +30.5% gain over bare idle (P(+)=0.5945P(+) = 0.5945P(+)=0.5945) and a +6.5% gain over standard simultaneous dynamical decoupling (P(+)=0.8342P(+) = 0.8342P(+)=0.8342), satisfying all pre-registered non-overlapping 95% bootstrap confidence intervals without post-hoc fitting. I. Introduction & The Crisis of Provenance Quantum computing research currently lacks an end-to-end chain of custody for experimental data. Due to environmental noise fluctuation, thermal drift, and cross-talk, QPU performance changes dynamically on time scales ranging from minutes to hours. This instability introduces three major vulnerabilities into published quantum benchmarks: Calibration Arbitrage: Experiments executed across hundreds of QPU calls can selectively showcase runs coinciding with transient calibration peaks while silently discarding noisy trials. Post-Hoc Hypothesis Modification: Error mitigation models and threshold parameters are frequently tuned after observing raw state-vector outputs, confusing exploratory curve fitting with confirmatory validation. Data Loss & Black-Box Execution: Published results rarely preserve transpiled machine-level pulse schedules alongside raw hardware counts and system calibration logs, rendering independent third-party replication practically impossible. To establish verifiable quantum advantage, the field requires a shift to Zero-Trust Quantum Benchmarking, wherein hardware execution permissions are contingent upon prior, tamper-evident pre-registration of experimental intent. II. The OSIRIS Write-Ahead Ledger Protocol The OSIRIS framework enforces experimental integrity via a write-ahead append-only ledger architecture integrated directly into the CI/CD pipeline and QPU submission harness. ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ OSIRIS PRE-REGISTRATION PIPELINE │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ 1. Circuit Synthesis ▼ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Transpile Target Topology & Gate Schedule │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ 2. Manifest Hashing ▼ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Hash (Transpiled Circuit + Hypotheses + Metrics) -> SHA-256 │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ 3. Ledger Write Ahead ▼ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Append Hash to Write-Ahead Ledger (ledger.jsonl) & Update Head │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ 4. QPU Job Submission ▼ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Dispatch to Hardware (IBM Heron r2: ibm_marrakesh) │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ 5. Verification & Audit ▼ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ Bind Raw QPU Counts to Ledger Entry and Publish Artifact Package │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ A. Manifest Schema A Pre-registration Manifest (M\mathcal{M}M) is defined as an immutable JSON document containing: Circuit State: Unrolled OpenQASM 3.0 / Qiskit compiled instructions, physical qubit mappings, and pulse duration definitions. Target Environment: Target backend identifier, scheduled execution window, and expected calibration parameters. Pre-declared Hypotheses: Exact quantitative thresholds (e.g., minimum target fidelity gain ΔFtarget\Delta F_{\text{target}}ΔFtarget​) and statistical evaluation functions (e.g., 95% bootstrap CI parameters). The manifest vector is serialized into a canonical UTF-8 byte stream and hashed using SHA-256\text{SHA-256}SHA-256: HM=SHA-256(Canonicalize(M))H_{\mathcal{M}} = \text{SHA-256}(\text{Canonicalize}(\mathcal{M}))HM​=SHA-256(Canonicalize(M)) B. Append-Only Ledger Chaining Each entry iii in the OSIRIS ledger (Li\mathcal{L}_iLi​) contains the hash of the current manifest HM,iH_{\mathcal{M}, i}HM,i​, a UTC timestamp tit_iti​, the state of the preceding block head HL,i−1H_{\mathcal{L}, i-1}HL,i−1​, and execution metadata: HL,i=SHA-256(HL,i−1∥HM,i∥ti)H_{\mathcal{L}, i} = \text{SHA-256}(H_{\mathcal{L}, i-1} \mathbin{\Vert} H_{\mathcal{M}, i} \mathbin{\Vert} t_i)HL,i​=SHA-256(HL,i−1​∥HM,i​∥ti​) This cryptographic chaining guarantees that modifying, deleting, or reordering any pre-registration attempt breaks the ledger head hash HL,headH_{\mathcal{L}, \text{head}}HL,head​, preventing silent trial deletion. III. Structural Comparison FeatureTraditional Quantum BenchmarkingOSIRIS Zero-Trust Benchmarking Execution TriggerAd-hoc script / manual notebook executionAutomated, deterministic CI/CD pipeline lock Circuit CommitmentMalleable, often post-processedImmutable pre-registered SHA-256 manifest hash Noisy Trial PolicyDiscarded or filtered unrecordedAppended permanently to immutable audit trail Verification BasisTrust in institutional reputationCryptographic verification (HM↔JobID↔CountsH_{\mathcal{M}} \leftrightarrow \text{JobID} \leftrightarrow \text{Counts}HM​↔JobID↔Counts) Fitting IntegrityPost-hoc curve fitting allowedPre-declared quantitative pass/fail thresholds IV. Empirical Hardware Validation: IBM Heron r2 (ibm_marrakesh) To validate the Zero-Trust protocol under production conditions, we pre-registered and executed a quantum control experiment on IBM Quantum's 156-qubit Heron r2 processor (ibm_marrakesh). A. Experimental Setup & Cryptographic Provenance Job ID: dau0q3qhcrkc73durtgg Target Backend: ibm_marrakesh (Heron r2, 156 Qubits) Execution Date: 2026-09-29 19:10:20 UTC QPU Execution Duration: 5.0 seconds Calibration Hash: 63f10bd484207c5044237b4115a46a0d29856036c923a2cde165baed57d15c9c Pre-registration Manifest SHA-256: 2d4c19a4a53301a1ac42459acd8b5b0d8cba0d588fa2523ed0994e5e1612d2f9 Ledger Head Hash: 6d7fd1390c1bab25b52f3e5e07be893aaa7194d8e3bd81db8466085da6e38d37 B. Dynamical Decoupling Physics: Bipartite Staggering Static and residual dynamic ZZZZZZ-crosstalk on heavy-hex hardware topologies remains a primary source of decoherence during multi-qubit idle periods. Standard textbook dynamical decoupling applies simultaneous π\piπ-pulses (e.g., CPMG, XY4) across all active qubits. However, simultaneous pulse execution on neighboring qubits induces pulse-collision errors and driven cross-resonance noise. OSIRIS introduces Bipartite-Staggered Dynamical Decoupling (xy4x2_stag, xy8_stag). The 8-qubit linear chain [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8][1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8][1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8] is partitioned into two disjoint sublattices: SA={1,3,5,7},SB={2,4,6,8}\mathcal{S}_A = \{1, 3, 5, 7\}, \quad \mathcal{S}_B = \{2, 4, 6, 8\}SA​={1,3,5,7},SB​={2,4,6,8} π\piπ-pulse schedules are temporal phase-shifted between SA\mathcal{S}_ASA​ and SB\mathcal{S}_BSB​, ensuring that no two adjacent qubits undergo simultaneous rotations, canceling crosstalk while preserving coherence. Sublattice A (Q1, Q3, Q5, Q7): ──[ X ]──────────────[ Y ]──────────────[ X ]── Sublattice B (Q2, Q4, Q6, Q8): ──────────[ X ]──────────────[ Y ]────────────── τ_stag τ_stag τ_stag τ_stag C. Empirical Results The experimental trial evaluated coherence retention across four conditions at time delays T=16.0 μsT = 16.0\ \mu\text{s}T=16.0 μs and T=32.0 μsT = 32.0\ \mu\text{s}T=32.0 μs. Effective loss rate Γ\GammaΓ was derived using Γ=−1Tln⁡P(+)\Gamma = -\frac{1}{T} \ln P(+)Γ=−T1​lnP(+). Hardware Execution Summary Table ConditionT (µs)Mean Survival P(+)95% Bootstrap CIEffective Loss Rate Γ (µs⁻¹) none (Idle)16.00.6382[0.6313, 0.6450]0.0280 none (Idle)32.00.5945[0.5942, 0.5947]0.0162 cpmg816.00.9139[0.9075, 0.9204]0.0056 cpmg832.00.8344[0.8289, 0.8398]0.0056 xy4x2 (Simultaneous)16.00.9135[0.9097, 0.9172]0.0056 xy4x2 (Simultaneous)32.00.8342[0.8291, 0.8394]0.0056 xy4x2_stag (OSIRIS)16.00.9313[0.9307, 0.9319]0.0044 xy4x2_stag (OSIRIS)32.00.8997[0.8945, 0.9048]0.0033 xy8_stag (OSIRIS)16.00.9318[0.9309, 0.9326]0.0044 xy8_stag (OSIRIS)32.00.8998[0.8982, 0.9014]0.0033 SURVIVAL PROBABILITY AT T = 32 µs 1.00 ┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ █████████ █████████ │ 0.80 │ █████████ █████████ ██ xy4x2 │ │ xy8 │ │ │ │ cpmg8 │ │ xy4x2 │ │ _stag │ │ _stag │ │ 0.60 │ █