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Technology Analysis and Strategic Management

Navigating uncertainty in quantum computing: how companies learn in emerging technology landscapes

Olli Tyrväinen, Jori Taipale, Joel Mero

Published May 4, 2026• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

Quantum computing is anticipated to revolutionise industries by providing breakthrough computational capabilities. However, even though the business community acknowledges this potential, uncertainty surrounding the technology still restricts investments. This article explores the uncertainties associated with potential future use cases of quantum computing and how companies navigate these uncertainties through adaptive and experimental learning processes. Based on interviews with managers representing various business sectors, our findings reveal how companies navigate exogenous and endogenous uncertainties in quantum computing adoption and show how they explore these uncertainties through adaptive and experimental approaches.

DOI
10.1080/09537325.2026.2667347

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Quantum computing is anticipated to revolutionise industries by providing breakthrough computational capabilities. However, even though the business community acknowledges this potential, uncertainty surrounding the technology still restricts investments. This article explores the uncertainties associated with potential future use cases of quantum computing and how companies navigate these uncertainties through adaptive and experimental learning processes. Based on interviews with managers representing various business sectors, our findings reveal how companies navigate exogenous and endogenous uncertainties in quantum computing adoption and show how they explore these uncertainties through adaptive and experimental approaches.
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Quantum computers leverage quantum mechanics to enable complex processing power enabling computation within a finite timeframe. As the industry reaches a peak of uncertainties in classical computing, researchers see an opportunity in quantum computing to resolve these uncertainties by unraveling the quantum mechanism that quantum physicists built for over a century. Organizations and academics have been working in tandem to conceptualize the quantum world through quantum computers. This article evaluates the tipping points of the quantum computers in the organization, the barrier of adoption, and a mitigation strategy. The article involves an extensive literature review of the current state and future application expectations from quantum computers. As part of this article, the authors interviewed senior industry technology experts to explore quantum computers’ introduction in the industry, and discussed the barriers to adopting quantum computing.
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Quantum computing represents a transformative leap in information processing, holding the promise to revolutionize industries through its unprecedented computational capabilities. This paper explores the evolving landscape of quantum computing by analyzing current developments, technological challenges, and emerging opportunities. It examines how quantum principles are being translated into real-world applications and identifies key obstacles to mainstream adoption, such as hardware instability, error correction, and the need for specialized quantum algorithms. By evaluating both the scientific and socio-economic implications, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the future trajectory of quantum computing.