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AI-Assisted Real-Time Satellite Quantum Key Distribution Simulator with Hybrid Noise Modeling and Finite-Size Security Analysis

V. Sharmila, P. Gnana Priya, V. Gnana Prasanna, K. Poongodi

Published Apr 26, 2026• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

Satellite-based Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) has emerged as a promising solution for global secure communication beyond the limitations of terrestrial optical fiber networks. However, practical free-space optical (FSO) satellite channels are highly dynamic due to atmospheric turbulence, background radiation, weather variability, and finite transmission durations. Most existing models rely on static channel assumptions and asymptotic secret key rate (SKR) estimations, which do not accurately reflect real-time operational conditions. This paper proposes an AI-assisted real-time satellite Continuous Variable QKD (CV-QKD) simulator that integrates live weather data with machine learning- based hybrid noise prediction to model realistic channel behavior. The predicted noise parameters are incorporated into an adaptive QKD framework to dynamically compute both asymptotic and finite-size corrected SKR values. The system further performs day–night comparative analysis and 24-hour temporal simulation to study channel variations over time. All operational parameters, including predicted noise, adaptive SKR, and finite-size adjustments, are logged for reproducibility and performance evaluation. The proposed work implemented in the QKD simulator bridges the gap between theoretical QKD modeling and practical satellite deployment by introducing environmental awareness, AI-driven channel adaptation, and finite-size security considerations within an interactive visualization platform. This framework provides a scalable and realistic tool for analyzing next-generation satellite quantum communication systems.

DOI
10.5281/zenodo.19789528

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Satellite-based Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) has emerged as a promising solution for global secure communication beyond the limitations of terrestrial optical fiber networks. However, practical free-space optical (FSO) satellite channels are highly dynamic due to atmospheric turbulence, background radiation, weather variability, and finite transmission durations. Most existing models rely on static channel assumptions and asymptotic secret key rate (SKR) estimations, which do not accurately reflect real-time operational conditions. This paper proposes an AI-assisted real-time satellite Continuous Variable QKD (CV-QKD) simulator that integrates live weather data with machine learning- based hybrid noise prediction to model realistic channel behavior. The predicted noise parameters are incorporated into an adaptive QKD framework to dynamically compute both asymptotic and finite-size corrected SKR values. The system further performs day–night comparative analysis and 24-hour temporal simulation to study channel variations over time. All operational parameters, including predicted noise, adaptive SKR, and finite-size adjustments, are logged for reproducibility and performance evaluation. The proposed work implemented in the QKD simulator bridges the gap between theoretical QKD modeling and practical satellite deployment by introducing environmental awareness, AI-driven channel adaptation, and finite-size security considerations within an interactive visualization platform. This framework provides a scalable and realistic tool for analyzing next-generation satellite quantum communication systems.
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This paper significantly advances the application of Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) in Free- Space Optics (FSO) satellite-based quantum communication. We propose an innovative satellite quantum channel model and derive the secret quantum key distribution rate achievable through this channel. Unlike existing models that approximate the noise in quantum channels as merely Gaussian distributed, our model incorporates a hybrid noise analysis, accounting for both quantum Poissonian noise and classical Additive-White-Gaussian Noise (AWGN). This hybrid approach acknowledges the dual vulnerability of continuous variables (CV) Gaussian quantum channels to both quantum and classical noise, thereby offering a more realistic assessment of the quantum Secret Key Rate (SKR). This paper delves into the variation of SKR with the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) under various influencing parameters. We identify and analyze critical factors such as reconciliation efficiency, transmission coefficient, transmission efficiency, the quantum Poissonian noise parameter, and the satellite altitude. These parameters are pivotal in determining the SKR in FSO satellite quantum channels, highlighting the challenges of satellitebased quantum communication. Our work provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and optimizing SKR in satellite-based QKD systems, paving the way for more efficient and secure quantum communication networks.
This paper develops a hybrid quantum channel model tailored for finite-regime quantum key distribution (QKD) in free-space satellite quantum communication. The channel model addresses the fading characteristics of satellite-to-ground links while incorporating the dynamics of satellite orbits. By conducting a comprehensive security analysis under finite-size effects and collective attacks, the research bridges the theoretical and practical aspects of satellite-based QKD. Critical parameters, such as reconciliation efficiency, transmission coefficient, detection efficiency, receiver telescope aperture, beam waist, and effective communication time, are systematically investigated to optimize the secret key rate. The study reveals key trade-offs between the influence of satellite altitude on communication windows, noise levels, and synchronization, which significantly impact quantum channel efficiency. The model improves the accuracy of free-space quantum channel evaluations by presenting a hybrid noise framework that combines quantum Poissonian noise with classical additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN). Our numerical results demonstrate the feasibility and robustness of finite-regime QKD for uplink and downlink configurations in various atmospheric conditions, highlighting the superiority of satellite-based quantum communication over conventional networks.
Satellite-based continuous-variable quantum key distribution (CV-QKD) is fundamentally constrained by finite communication windows, channel attenuation, and statistical fluctuations arising from a limited number of exchanged quantum states. This work develops a finite-size CV-QKD framework for satellite quantum communication under a hybrid noise model that jointly incorporates satellite geometry, atmospheric and propagation losses, quantum Poissonian noise coexisting with classical additive white Gaussian noise, detector imperfections, and composable finite-key security under collective attacks. A single canonical finite-size secret key rate (SKR) expression is derived in which the finite-size correction is stated in a strictly decreasing form in the block size, removing the ambiguity between the segmented and the block-level formulations used in earlier treatments. The finite-size accounting is further extended to the quantum bit error ratio (QBER) through an explicit parameter estimation penalty, so that the feasibility constraint inherits the same block-size dependence as the key rate. The framework quantifies the influence of reconciliation efficiency, transmission efficiency, detection efficiency, receiver aperture, beam waist, zenith angle, wavelength, and effective communication time. Numerical results reveal a significant performance gap between finite-size and asymptotic operation, indicating that asymptotic analysis can overestimate the feasible satellite altitude by a factor of several, and that the achievable range is governed by the number of signals actually exchanged rather than by any single physical channel parameter. These results establish block size as a first-class design variable for satellite CV-QKD mission dimensioning.
Atmospheric turbulence is the major challenge to satellite-to-ground quantum key distribution (QKD), yet most performance models treat turbulence only through average statistics, masking temporal loss fluctuations that dominate real links. Here we present an end-to-end, time-evolving satellite-to-ground QKD model that embeds a phase-screen description of turbulence into beam propagation, focusing, tracking, adaptive-optics compensation, and single-mode fiber (SMF) coupling. The simulation delivers the instantaneous channel loss L channel ( t ) and thermal photon dark counts D C bgn , from which we estimate the finite-size secret key rate (SKR) and evaluate the performance of turbulence mitigation techniques. For a GEO-to-Lijiang Station link, the optimized configuration enables day-and-night QKD operation under favorable weather conditions, although the daytime link margin remains limited. This study complements conventional time-averaged models by offering a more realistic and detailed framework for analyzing satellite-to-ground QKD performance and the effectiveness of mitigation techniques under time-evolving turbulence.
Satellite-based Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) is emerging as a cornerstone technology for secure global communication networks, extending quantum-safe key exchange beyond the limitations of terrestrial fiber systems. Achieving scalable and robust space-to-ground QKD links requires careful optimization of optical terminals, channel conditions, and protocol-specific parameters.In this work, we present a system-level analysis of design priorities for satellite QKD networks, using realistic atmospheric conditions modeled with MODTRAN 6 and a simulation tool designed and developed in-house. For discrete-variable (DV) QKD, we analyze how the secret key rate (SKR) varies with satellite altitude for two telescope aperture sizes under representative rural and urban ground station scenarios. Results show that DV-QKD enables secure key distribution over distances compatible with LEO and MEO satellite links when using moderately sized ground telescopes (600mm and 800mm apertures). For continuous-variable (CV) QKD with Gaussian modulation, SKR is analyzed as a function of satellite altitude under the most favorable link conditions identified in the DV-QKD study (800 mm ground aperture and rural environment), indicating that CV-QKD is feasible for secure key exchange with low-altitude LEO satellites, as long as the excess noise remains within low (yet experimentally achievable) levels (≈ 0.045 SNR). Additionally, we establish upper bounds on tolerable excess noise via heatmap analysis, defining the operational regime for secure CV-QKD.These findings provide quantitative guidance for designing scalable, interoperable, and cost-efficient space-to-ground QKD infrastructures, supporting the development of robust global quantum communication networks.