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International Conference on Smart Electronics and Communication (ICOSEC)

Quantum Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Risk and Market Volatility

Sivashanmugam Thangavel, S. Murugan, N. Saranya Devi, C Shobana Nageswari, Pooja Infantina G C, Sathishkumar Veerappampalayam Easwaramoorthy

Published Sep 24, 2025• 1 citation
Publisher

Abstract

Financial markets undergo rapid oscillations driven by several volatile causes, necessitating expedited and precise models for risk evaluation and market trend forecasting. Classical models encounter computational constraints when examining high-dimensional, nonlinear datasets. This study seeks to use Quantum Machine Learning (QML) methodologies to expedite risk evaluation and improve volatility forecasting for various financial instruments in real-time settings. The unique contribution of this work is the integration of quantum machine learning with financial risk assessment, leveraging quantum parallelism and kernelized feature spaces to improve the accuracy of market volatility prediction. This framework not only enhances computational efficiency compared to classical models but also provides a scalable foundation for real-time financial decision-making. The system employs Kaggle-style datasets including CME futures, Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), HRB, and historical data from the Dow Jones (DJI). Essential metrics including Open, Close, High, Low, Volume, Volatility Index, and Price Returns were retrieved. A hybrid pipeline combining conventional preprocessing with quantum-enhanced classifiers, including variational quantum circuits, was developed using the Qiskit and Pennylane frameworks. The QML-based model had a prediction accuracy of 95.2% in risk categorization and market direction forecasting, exceeding traditional standards. Quantum models provide significant benefits in velocity and scalability for financial analytics, enabling real-time risk assessment and strategic investment analysis.

DOI
10.1109/icosec67334.2025.11459775

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The integration of quantum computing into financial systems marks a transformative leap in risk management, security, and market operations. Unlike classical computing, quantum algorithms can process vast datasets and complex models at unprecedented speeds, enabling real-time risk analytics, rapid fraud detection, and optimized trading strategies. This study explores the emerging field of quantum-driven finance, focusing on its potential to enhance predictive accuracy, reduce systemic vulnerabilities, and accelerate decision-making in volatile markets. Applications such as quantum-enhanced Monte Carlo simulations, quantum machine learning for anomaly detection, and optimization in algorithmic trading are examined alongside challenges in scalability, cybersecurity, and regulatory adaptation. By evaluating current advancements and future prospects, this research highlights quantum computing's role in shaping a secure, intelligent, and high-velocity global financial ecosystem.