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Quantum Portfolio Optimization Under Realistic Frictions: A Rigorous Comparison with Classical Baselines

Ekow Tawiah Andoh

Published Mar 24, 2026• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

We test whether quantum-inspired optimization, specifically Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) solved via simulated annealing, can improve implementable portfolio performance compared to classical baselines when realistic frictions are included. Our experimental design uses daily returns from the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) for S&P500 constituents spanning 2014–2025, with monthly rebalancing, explicit transaction costs, and turnover accounting. We compare QUBO portfolios against equal-weight and convex mean–variance portfolios across multiple universe sizes (20, 50, 67 assets), lookback windows, and transaction-cost levels. Statistical significance is assessed via paired moving-block bootstrap on out-of-sample net returns. A hyperparameter sweep over encoding depth, penalty coefficients, and turnover reveals 19 of 81 QUBO configurations beat the equal-weight baseline, with the best achieving a Sharpe of 1.59 versus 1.42. However, under a fair walk forward model-selection protocol that eliminates look-ahead bias, the QUBO strategy does not achieve statistically significant superiority over either classical benchmark (∆Sharpe vs. equal weight: −0.13, 95% CI [−0.46,0.16]; vs. mean–variance: −0.29, 95% CI [−0.63,0.06]). Excessive turnover (averaging ∼1.0 per rebalance) is identified as the primary bottleneck. We conclude that current QUBO formulations with simulated annealing do not yet deliver a robust, implementable edge over well-tuned convex optimizers, though the framework remains a promising research direction as quantum hardware and hybrid solvers mature.

DOI
10.5281/zenodo.19197969

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We test whether quantum-inspired optimization, specifically Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) solved via simulated annealing, can improve implementable portfolio performance compared to classical baselines when realistic frictions are included. Our experimental design uses daily returns from the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) for S&P500 constituents spanning 2014–2025, with monthly rebalancing, explicit transaction costs, and turnover accounting. We compare QUBO portfolios against equal-weight and convex mean–variance portfolios across multiple universe sizes (20, 50, 67 assets), lookback windows, and transaction-cost levels. Statistical significance is assessed via paired moving-block bootstrap on out-of-sample net returns. A hyperparameter sweep over encoding depth, penalty coefficients, and turnover reveals 19 of 81 QUBO configurations beat the equal-weight baseline, with the best achieving a Sharpe of 1.59 versus 1.42. However, under a fair walk forward model-selection protocol that eliminates look-ahead bias, the QUBO strategy does not achieve statistically significant superiority over either classical benchmark (∆Sharpe vs. equal weight: −0.13, 95% CI [−0.46,0.16]; vs. mean–variance: −0.29, 95% CI [−0.63,0.06]). Excessive turnover (averaging ∼1.0 per rebalance) is identified as the primary bottleneck. We conclude that current QUBO formulations with simulated annealing do not yet deliver a robust, implementable edge over well-tuned convex optimizers, though the framework remains a promising research direction as quantum hardware and hybrid solvers mature.
This paper investigates and compares quantum and classical investment strategies for portfolio construction under realistic trading and allocation constraints. The study considers a multi-period portfolio re-balancing setting in which asset weights are subject to lower and upper bounds, class-level exposure restrictions, and turnover limitations. On the quantum side, the portfolio selection problem is reformulated as a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) model through a finite binary encoding of asset weights, and subsequently embedded into a constrained quadratic model (CQM) solved by a hybrid quantum-classical optimization workflow. On the classical side, benchmark allocation strategies are introduced to provide an economically meaningful reference for performance assessment. The proposed framework jointly evaluates portfolio efficiency from two complementary perspectives: business performance, measured through return, volatility, and a measure of the trade-off between them, the Sharpe ratio; and computational performance, assessed through solver structure, constraint handling, and hardware execution characteristics. The resulting comparison provides a rigorous basis for understanding the practical role of quantum annealing in constrained portfolio optimization, while clarifying both its modeling advantages and its current implementation limitations relative to established classical approaches.
This study explores the integration of quantum computing techniques, specifically the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA), with classical portfolio optimization frameworks through the Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) approach. Using monthly turnover data from the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE), this paper demonstrates the construction of a QUBO matrix by encoding expected returns and covariance-based risk profiles. Binary asset inclusion constraints are introduced into portfolios and then optimised using both brute force enumeration and quantum inspired solvers. The analysis reveals those combinations including Index Futures and Index Options exhibit superior risk-adjusted performance (Sharpe Ratio≈0.286\approx 0.286≈0.286). The hybrid approach suggests the promise of quantum inspired models as means to improve financial decision making under uncertainty. The results also give a robust template for scalable asset selection models that operate within the constraints of quantum computing infrastructure.
In this note, we describe an experiment on portfolio optimization using the Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) formulation. The dataset we use is taken from a real-world problem for which a classical solution is currently deployed and used in production. In this work, carried out in a collaboration between the Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) and Reply, we derive a QUBO formulation, which we solve using various methods: two D-Wave hybrid solvers, that combine the employment of a quantum annealer together with classical methods, and a purely classical algorithm. Particular focus is given to the implementation of the constraint that requires the resulting portfolio’s variance to be below a specified threshold, whose representation in an Ising model is not straightforward. We find satisfactory results, consistent with the global optimum obtained by the exact classical strategy. However, since the tuning of QUBO parameters is crucial for the optimization, we investigate a hybrid method that allows for automatic tuning.
We present a hybrid classical-quantum framework for portfolio construction and rebalancing. Asset selection is performed using Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage covariance estimation combined with hierarchical correlation clustering to extract n = 10 decorrelated stocks from the S&P 500 universe without survivorship bias. Portfolio weights are optimised via an entropy-regularised Genetic Algorithm (GA) accelerated on GPU, alongside closed-form minimum-variance and equal-weight benchmarks. Our primary contribution is the formulation of the portfolio rebalancing schedule as a Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimisation (QUBO) problem. The resulting combinatorial optimisation task is solved using the Quantum Approximate Optimisation Algorithm (QAOA) within a walk-forward framework designed to eliminate lookahead bias. This approach recasts dynamic rebalancing as a structured binary scheduling problem amenable to variational quantum methods. Backtests on S&P 500 data (training: 2010-2024; out-of-sample test: 2025, n = 249 trading days) show that the GA + QAOA strategy attains a Sharpe ratio of 0.588 and total return of 10.1%, modestly outperforming the strongest classical baseline (GA with 10-day periodic rebalancing, Sharpe 0.575) while executing 8 rebalances versus 24, corresponding to a 44.5% reduction in transaction costs. Multi-restart QAOA (4096 measurement shots per run) exhibits concentrated probability mass on high-quality schedules, indicating stable convergence of the variational procedure. These findings suggest that hybrid classical-quantum architectures can reduce turnover in portfolio rebalancing while preserving competitive risk-adjusted performance, providing a structured testbed for near-term quantum optimisation in financial applications.
Abstract In this note, we describe an experiment on portfolio optimization using the Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) formulation. The dataset we use is taken from a real-world problem for which a classical solution is currently deployed and used in production. In this work, carried out in a collaboration between the Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) and Reply, we derive a QUBO formulation, which we solve using various methods: two D-Wave hybrid solvers, that combine the employment of a quantum annealer together with classical methods, and a purely classical algorithm. Particular focus is given to the implementation of the constraint that requires the resulting portfolio’s variance to be below a specified threshold, whose representation in an Ising model is not straightforward. We find satisfactory results, consistent with the global optimum obtained by the exact classical strategy. However, since the tuning of QUBO parameters is crucial for the optimization, we investigate a hybrid method that allows for automatic tuning.
In this work, we introduce a new workflow to solve portfolio optimization problems on annealing platforms. We combine a classical preprocessing step with a modified unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) model and evaluate it using simulated annealing (classical computer), digital annealing (Fujitsu’s Digital Annealing Unit), and quantum annealing (D-Wave Advantage). Starting from Markowitz’s theory on portfolio optimization, our classical preprocessing step finds the most promising assets within a set of possible assets to choose from. We then modify existing QUBO models for portfolio optimization, such that there are no limitations on the number of assets that can be invested in. Furthermore, our QUBO model enables an investor to also place an arbitrary amount of money into each asset. We apply this modified QUBO to the set of promising asset candidates we generated previously via classical preprocessing. A solution to our QUBO model contains information about what percentage of the whole available capital should be invested into which asset. For the evaluation, we have used publicly available real-world data sets of stocks of the New York Stock Exchange as well as common ETFs. Finally, we have compared the respective annealing results with randomly generated portfolios by using the return, variance, and diversification of the created portfolios as measures. The results show that our QUBO formulation is capable of creating well-diversified portfolios that respect certain criteria given by an investor, such as maximizing return, minimizing risk, or sticking to a certain budget.