Abstract Machine learning systems are increasingly deployed in environments where decision errors carry significant consequences. In such settings, predictive probabilities alone often provide an incomplete basis for decision making, as they do not reveal why uncertainty arises or whether competing hypotheses are present. This limitation can lead to overconfident decisions, particularly when models encounter ambiguous or evolving conditions.This work introduces a quantum-inspired decision framework that represents predictive uncertainty using a density matrix formulation. Without relying on quantum hardware or computational assumptions, the proposed approach models structured interactions among hypotheses through off-diagonal terms in a normalized state representation. An ambiguity-aware adaptive threshold is derived from this structure and applied as a post-hoc decision layer, thereby regulating decisions without modifying or retraining the underlying predictive model.Theoretical analysis clarifies how structured ambiguity differs from scalar uncertainty measures, and controlled synthetic experiments illustrate its impact on decision boundaries and precision–recall behavior. Results show that the proposed method enables selective suppression of decisions in ambiguous regions while maintaining interpretability and controllability. By bridging uncertainty modeling with practical decision regulation, this framework contributes a simple and extensible mechanism for more reliable AI deployment in high-stakes applications.
Abstract Machine learning systems are increasingly deployed in environments where decision errors carry significant consequences. In such settings, predictive probabilities alone often provide an incomplete basis for decision making, as they do not reveal why uncertainty arises or whether competing hypotheses are present. This limitation can lead to overconfident decisions, particularly when models encounter ambiguous or evolving conditions.This work introduces a quantum-inspired decision framework that represents predictive uncertainty using a density matrix formulation. Without relying on quantum hardware or computational assumptions, the proposed approach models structured interactions among hypotheses through off-diagonal terms in a normalized state representation. An ambiguity-aware adaptive threshold is derived from this structure and applied as a post-hoc decision layer, thereby regulating decisions without modifying or retraining the underlying predictive model.Theoretical analysis clarifies how structured ambiguity differs from scalar uncertainty measures, and controlled synthetic experiments illustrate its impact on decision boundaries and precision–recall behavior. Results show that the proposed method enables selective suppression of decisions in ambiguous regions while maintaining interpretability and controllability. By bridging uncertainty modeling with practical decision regulation, this framework contributes a simple and extensible mechanism for more reliable AI deployment in high-stakes applications.
The increasing complexity of modern decision-making environments has challenged the effectiveness of classical mathematical models. Traditional probabilistic frameworks often struggle to represent uncertainty, ambiguity, contextual dependence, and nonlinear interactions among decision variables. Quantum-inspired mathematical models have emerged as a promising interdisciplinary approach that leverages mathematical principles derived from quantum theory without requiring quantum computing hardware. These models utilize concepts such as superposition, interference, entanglement, and contextuality to represent complex decision processes more accurately. This paper explores the theoretical foundations, mathematical structures, and applications of quantum-inspired decision models in complex systems. The study examines how quantum probability theory provides a more flexible representation of human cognition, organizational decision-making, financial forecasting, and artificial intelligence systems. Furthermore, the paper discusses mathematical formulations, implementation strategies, advantages, challenges, and future research directions. The findings suggest that quantum-inspired models offer significant potential for addressing uncertainty and dynamic interactions in complex decision environments, thereby contributing to the advancement of intelligent decision support systems.
Although new AI systems have been developed based on the integration of information from multiple sources under conditions of uncertainty, classical probabilistic models are unable to provide structured, interpretable, and reliable representations in the presence of contextual and order effects. Specifically, the fundamental principles of Kolmogorov’s assumptions underlying the modeling overlook certain common violations in real-world decision-making processes, such as non-commutativity, contextual dependence among agents, and interaction effects between information sources characterized by experiential heterogeneity. A Positive Operator-Valued Measure (POVM) formalism defined on a Hilbert space of latent states forms the basis of this article’s structured epistemic representation framework to support the reliability and interpretability of the black box in AI. The resulting model generalizes the classical epistemic quadruplet: Probability, Plausibility, Credibility, and Possibility within a single geometric framework in which three essential non-classical effect mechanisms emerge—(i) the non-commutativity of information acquisition, (ii) the contextuality arising from incompatible observational frameworks, and (iii) the interference interactions between information acquisition channels. We propose the concept of a quantum-inspired fusion operator (QI-Happenability), which introduces symmetric and antisymmetric feedback interaction terms based on the estimation of ordered residuals. An analysis of the proposed framework is then performed using real data, validating the model on the Efron et al. diabetes regression dataset (N = 442; ten standardized physiological predictors; continuous disease progression target), available in scikit-learn, which showed a 17.4% reduction in mean absolute error (MAE) compared to traditional models and significant improvements over polynomial machine learning baselines, as well as ensemble machine learning methods, within a rigorous cross-validation protocol. Contextual analysis indicates that 68% of cases violate classical bounds (CHSH inequality, p < 0.001), empirically confirming the non-classical structured representation in multi-source data. The results confirm the proposed approach as a simpler, more interpretable, and more reliable alternative to black-box models: this work demonstrates how the use of structured epistemic representations in reasoning under uncertainty preserves formal interpretability while retaining useful semantic information. By linking quantum cognition and applied AI, this work could help lay the groundwork for a new generation of interpretable and reliable decision-making systems.
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing has introduced new paradigms for solving computationally complex problems beyond the capabilities of classical systems. This paper presents a Quantum Intelligence Platform (QIP), a hybrid quantum-inspired computational framework designed to enhance intelligent decision prediction and optimization in complex environments. The proposed system integrates quantum probabilistic modelling concepts such as superposition and interference with classical machine learning algorithms to improve prediction accuracy and adaptive decision-making. A hybrid architecture combining quantum circuit simulation and classical deep learning modules is developed to enable scalable experimentation without requiring physical quantum hardware. The platform is evaluated on decision prediction and optimization tasks, demonstrating improvements in convergence stability and predictive performance compared to conventional models. Experimental results show that quantum-inspired state representation enhances feature expressiveness and probabilistic reasoning. The proposed framework bridges the gap between theoretical quantum computation and practical intelligent systems, offering a scalable pathway for future quantum-enhanced AI applications.
Quantum machine learning (QML) has attracted significant interest in drug discovery due to its potential to model complex molecular interactions and improve prediction accuracy for protein-ligand binding affinity. However, most existing hybrid quantum-classical approaches rely on static architectures that apply quantum computation uniformly across all samples, regardless of molecular complexity or prediction confidence. Such static execution strategies lead to inefficient quantum resource utilization and limit scalability on near-term noisy intermediatescale quantum (NISQ) devices. In this paper, we propose an uncertainty-aware adaptive hybrid quantum-classical learning framework for protein-ligand binding affinity prediction that treats quantum computation as a selectively invoked resource rather than a constant component of the learning pipeline. The proposed framework first employs a classical ensemble-based regression model to generate binding affinity predictions along with an associated uncertainty estimate derived from ensemble variance. This uncertainty information is then used by a decision mechanism to dynamically select between classical-only inference, shallow quantum circuit execution, or deep quantum circuit execution. By adapting the quantum circuit depth and invocation frequency to the predicted uncertainty, the framework enables decision-centric allocation of quantum resources. Experimental evaluation of binding affinity data demonstrates that the recommended adaptive framework utilizes around 76 % less quantum resources than static hybrid quantum learning methods that use fixed-depth quantum circuits for all samples. The framework also preserves decision-level functionality and a steady inference workflow. These findings highlight the effectiveness of uncertainty-guided adaptivity as a practical strategy and offer a scalable foundation for future quantum-enhanced molecular learning.method for incorporating QML into drug development pipelines while taking hardware constraints into consideration.
Classical models of decision-making under uncertainty, grounded in expected utility theory and Bayesian probability, often fail to account for systematic cognitive anomalies such as preference reversals, order effects, ambiguity aversion, and context-dependent choices. Quantum cognition models offer a novel theoretical framework that applies the mathematical principles of quantum probability—such as superposition, interference, and non-commutativity—to cognitive processes without assuming physical quantum mechanisms in the brain. By representing cognitive states as probabilistic superpositions that collapse through decision “measurements,” these models provide parsimonious explanations for violations of classical rationality. This paper examines how quantum cognition frameworks capture contextual influence, belief updating, and interference effects in uncertain decision environments. Drawing on findings from cognitive psychology and behavioral economics, the study highlights the relevance of quantum cognition for applications in economic choice modeling, legal decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The analysis suggests that quantum probability offers a robust alternative to classical approaches when modeling human decision-making in complex, ambiguous, and context-sensitive situations.
Purpose: Decision-making under uncertainty remains a foundational challenge in cognitive science and artificial intelligence. Classical Bayesian Probability Models (CBM) often fail to explain paradoxical cognitive behaviors such as order effects, ambiguity aversion, and context-dependent reasoning. This study seeks to compare Quantum Probability Theory (QPT) and Classical Bayesian Models in their ability to capture the dynamics of human decision-making. It aims to determine which framework more accurately reflects the cognitive mechanisms underlying reasoning under uncertainty. Methodology: A qualitative, exploratory research design was adopted, involving in-depth semi-structured interviews with 16 experts across psychology, philosophy, artificial intelligence, and cognitive neuroscience. Participants were purposively selected for their theoretical and empirical expertise in probabilistic reasoning. Data were analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis, guided by the Dual-Process Theory and Busemeyer’s Quantum Cognition framework. The analysis emphasized participants’ perspectives on theoretical assumptions, cognitive plausibility, and predictive utility between QPT and CBM paradigms. Findings: Thematic findings reveal that Quantum Probability Theory offers superior explanatory power in contexts involving cognitive ambiguity, contextual dependence, and non-commutativity of mental operations. Participants consistently reported that QPT better models real-world reasoning tasks where classical logic collapses, capturing the fluid and context-sensitive nature of human judgment. Conversely, while CBM remains effective in structured, low-uncertainty scenarios, it fails to accommodate superposition and interference effects inherent in human cognition. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice, and Policy (Recommendations): The study contributes theoretically by demonstrating how quantum probabilistic models expand existing theories of bounded rationality and probabilistic reasoning in cognitive science. Practically, it encourages interdisciplinary collaboration between cognitive scientists, AI researchers, and philosophers to refine decision models that mirror human intuition more closely. Policy-wise, the findings support the integration of quantum-inspired approaches in the design of intelligent decision-support systems and cognitive architectures. The study recommends continued empirical validation of QPT within applied domains—such as behavioral economics, machine learning, and cognitive modeling—to strengthen its predictive and explanatory robustness.