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Decay, Drift and Non–Orientable Loops: A Twist–Topological Basis for Probability and Breakdown

Ascher, Jörg

Published Dec 10, 2025• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

We propose a structural account of why systems across all scales — from radioactive atoms to ecosystems and social orders — decay, tip or break down. Instead of treating probability and metastability as primitive features, the paper shows how they emerge naturally when a system is understood as a loop that almost, but not perfectly, closes. A small intrinsic drift in such non-orientable loops produces exponential decay, spontaneous breakdown, and the characteristic “waiting-time” statistics found in both quantum physics and complex systems. Using only minimal assumptions, the paper links: spontaneous quantum decay → to drift in nearly closed loops, metastability → to how much closure margin a system has left, tipping points in chaos → to the same structural condition as half-life laws, entropy → to a universal bias that keeps loops from perfect closure. The result is a unified conceptual picture in which stability, probability and breakdown follow from one and dersame structural principle: reality is built from loops that hold for a while — and then open.

DOI
10.5281/zenodo.17881845

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The classical deterministic worldview that dominated science from the seventeenth to the nineteenth century has been profoundly challenged by developments in modern physics and biology. Quantum mechanics has revealed that indeterminacy and probability are not merely epistemic limitations, but intrinsic features of physical reality. At the same time, evolutionary biology has shown that random genetic variation, filtered by natural selection, is the fundamental driver of biological diversity and adaptation. This article explores the conceptual parallel between quantum indeterminacy and evolutionary randomness, not as a reduction of biology to physics, but as an epistemological reflection on how stability and order emerge from probabilistic processes across different levels of organization. By examining emergence, contingency, historical irreversibility, and the limits of prediction, the paper argues that determinism is best understood as a scale-dependent approximation rather than a foundational ontological principle. The absence of finality in nature does not imply chaos or nihilism, but invites a renewed philosophical understanding of explanation, responsibility, and scientific humility in a probabilistic universe.