UCT Prediction 2 (Stage 1c): Estimator-Coupled Topological Noise Gate Pre-Registration
Gabriel Steiger
Stage 1c companion to Stage 1b (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360259) of the UCT no-new-constants quantum readout floor prediction. This deposit supersedes only Stage 1b Section 6.2 (the union-bound mundane-source pre-test gate) and replaces it with an estimator-coupled topological gate derived from the Weyl-Davis-Kahan spectral gap theorem.The Stage 3 IBM Fez execution (see linked Stage 2 and Stage 3 deposits) returned f̂ = 7/8 = 0.87500 exactly with bootstrap σ(f̂) = 0 — consistent with the (Z₂)³ prediction — but the Stage 1b union-bound gate failed (ε_mundane ≈ 0.124 > 0.0625) because it summed G-invariant and non-G-invariant noise sources without accounting for the symmetrization step that removes G-invariant contributions from the estimator.The Stage 1c topological gate passes iff: (i) m̂₀ = 1 (single singlet dimension); and (ii) R_gap = (τ − σ₂) / std(σ₂^{bootstrap}) ≥ 3.0, where τ = 0.05 × σ₁ is the locked SVD threshold. Under this gate the Stage 3 data yields R_gap = 4.25 (PASS), certifying Z₂³_SUPPORTED on the same dataset.All other Stage 1b provisions (predictions 7/8 and 8/9, architecture classifier, operational f̂ definition, statistical-power requirement, decision rule, falsification criterion) remain in force unchanged.Two files are deposited: the pre-registration markdown and the analysis script implementing the topological gate.SHA-256 hashes (locked):Pre-registration: f798062e46a51ca884b037a1d52378541d8cf2b760d9ae780bf411abcb1f36f9 (13285 bytes)Analysis script: 2d6824e11be21c73c54ca04e0cb277973dce81e05e6500a42d86eca28b5c0452 (28215 bytes)Parent pre-registrations:Stage 1: 10.5281/zenodo.20360004Stage 1b: 10.5281/zenodo.20360259Stage 2: 10.5281/zenodo.20360347
•May 27, 2026•0 citations