Statistically robust anomalous effects: Replication in random event generators

Harald Walach, Karolina A. Kirmse, Peter Sedlmeier +3 more

We have reported previously on positive effects found in the matrix experiment. This is a setup where a random event generator (REG) drives a display, which participants are instructed to “influence” at will, i.e., in a psychokinesis (PK) setup. The difference of this matrix experiment from standard micro-PK REG experiments was that the deviation from randomness was not measured, but a large array of 2025 correlations between the behavior of the participant and the behavior of the REG was tested. This previous experiment was significant, and we devised a consensus protocol, which was deposited before commencement, according to which we conducted two independent replications with the same experimental setup and equipment. In the first experiment 64 participants conducted the experiment in one location under the experimental guidance of KK, in the second experiment 40 participants conducted the experiment in another location under the experimental guidance of HV. The analysis used a non-parametric randomization test with 10,000 iterations. None of the two experiments was significant. While in the first experiment a very small, but non-significant effect was found, in the second experiment no effect whatsoever was detectable. Sensitivity analyses did not suggest that the effect was in fact there but overlooked by our analysis. We discuss the findings in the context of the larger debate around replicability of parapsychological (PSI) research results and our theoretical model. This starts from the assumptions that such PSI effects are likely effects of a generalized form of entanglement correlations, and a consequence of this model is that such effects must not be used for the transfer of signals. Classical experiments, however, are detectors or extractors of signals in or from systems. This seems to be prohibited. Thus, the replication problem and this failed replication is likely part of the systematic nature of these effects. This makes it unlikely that experimental research alone will be successful in the long run demonstrating PSI effects. Our conclusion is that the matrix experiment is not a replicable paradigm in PSI research.

David J. Dean

Rodrigo Gallego, Lluís Masanes, Gonzalo de la Torre +3 more

Erich Habich-Traut

Project WHISPER is a preregistered experimental protocol testing whether statistical properties of quantum random number generator (QRNG) output recorded prior to a future event are independent of a later, independently generated target bit. The study specifies a single, falsifiable hypothesis: that summary statistics computed on a fixed pre-event window of QRNG data are either independent of, or systematically biased toward, a future target value generated by an independent QRNG. All hypotheses, analysis windows, statistical tests, and significance thresholds are preregistered prior to data unblinding. The protocol is designed to eliminate classical information leakage, experimenter bias, and analytical flexibility. A null result supports standard quantum mechanical assumptions of temporal independence; a positive result would motivate independent replication and further investigation.

Jacob Jolij, Dick J. Bierman

Over the past years, it has become increasingly apparent that perception is not a passive process: how stimuli appear is not just a function of stimulus properties, but also of the memory, and expectancies of the observer. In an experiment testing the effects of stimulus randomization on these expectancy processes, we have reported an anomalous effect of apparent precognition. Here we show that there may be another anomalous effect in play in stimulus detection tasks, namely psychokinesis. In a simple stimulus detection experiment, we used quantum-random versus pseudo-random generated stimulus sequences. If pseudo-generated sequences contain implicit structure, we would expect better performance for these sequences. Contrary to this prediction, we found participants performed better and faster in the quantum-random generated sequences. We explain this result in terms of the observation theory-framework, which postulates that psi-effects are closely related to the radical subjective solution of the measurement problem in quantum mechanics. Our results can be explained by assuming a combination of PK and precognitive priming effects for quantum-random generated sequences. We describe a replication experiment to formally test this hypothesis.

Giorgio Parisi A, F. Rapuano