Quantum computing introduces unique forms of randomness arising from measurement processes, gate noise, and hardware imperfections. Ensuring reliable uncertainty quantification in such quantum-driven or quantum-derived predictions is an emerging challenge. In classical machine learning, conformal prediction has proven to be a robust framework for distribution-free uncertainty calibration, often focusing on univariate or low-dimensional outputs. Recent advances (e.g., [1–3]) have extended conformal methods to handle multi-output or multi-dimensional responses, addressing sophisticated tasks such as time-series, image classification sets, and quantum-generated probability distributions. However, bridging the gap between these powerful conformal frameworks and the high-dimensional, noise-prone distributions typical of quantum measurement scenarios remains largely open. In this paper, we propose a unified approach to harness quantum conformal methods for multi-output distributions, with a particular emphasis on two experimental paradigms: (i) a standard 2-qubit circuit scenario producing a four-dimensional outcome distribution, and (ii) a multi-basis measurement setting that concatenates measurement probabilities in different bases (Z, X, Y) into a twelve-dimensional output space. By combining a multi-output regression model (e.g., random forests) with distributional conformal prediction, we validate coverage and interval-set sizes on both simulated quantum data and multi-basis measurement data. Our results confirm that classical conformal prediction can effectively provide coverage guarantees even when the target probabilities derive from inherently quantum processes. Such synergy opens the door to next-generation quantum-classical hybrid frameworks, providing both improved interpretability and rigorous coverage for quantum machine learning tasks. All codes and full reproducible Colab notebooks are made available at https://github.com/detasar/QECMMOU.
Quantum computing introduces unique forms of randomness arising from measurement processes, gate noise, and hardware imperfections. Ensuring reliable uncertainty quantification in such quantum-driven or quantum-derived predictions is an emerging challenge. In classical machine learning, conformal prediction has proven to be a robust framework for distribution-free uncertainty calibration, often focusing on univariate or low-dimensional outputs. Recent advances (e.g., [1–3]) have extended conformal methods to handle multi-output or multi-dimensional responses, addressing sophisticated tasks such as time-series, image classification sets, and quantum-generated probability distributions. However, bridging the gap between these powerful conformal frameworks and the high-dimensional, noise-prone distributions typical of quantum measurement scenarios remains largely open. In this paper, we propose a unified approach to harness quantum conformal methods for multi-output distributions, with a particular emphasis on two experimental paradigms: (i) a standard 2-qubit circuit scenario producing a four-dimensional outcome distribution, and (ii) a multi-basis measurement setting that concatenates measurement probabilities in different bases (Z, X, Y) into a twelve-dimensional output space. By combining a multi-output regression model (e.g., random forests) with distributional conformal prediction, we validate coverage and interval-set sizes on both simulated quantum data and multi-basis measurement data. Our results confirm that classical conformal prediction can effectively provide coverage guarantees even when the target probabilities derive from inherently quantum processes. Such synergy opens the door to next-generation quantum-classical hybrid frameworks, providing both improved interpretability and rigorous coverage for quantum machine learning tasks. All codes and full reproducible Colab notebooks are made available at https://github.com/detasar/QECMMOU.
Quantum fidelity estimation is a fundamental task in quantum information and computing to benchmark the quality of quantum states, and hence of quantum processes, on noisy quantum hardware. Point estimates of fidelity by existing methods generally lack the rigorous uncertainty quantification required for reliable preparation and verification of these tasks. While Bayesian and bootstrap frameworks are widely used for uncertainty quantification, they are sensitive to model misspecification or lack formal coverage guarantees in non-asymptotic regimes. This paper introduces a hybrid "Bayesian-informed" conformal prediction-based framework to provide distribution-free, rigorous prediction intervals for quantum state fidelity estimation which can be used, with care, to approximate confidence intervals with respect to the quantum randomness of Born's rule. The framework requires a point estimator, and we consider both classical point estimators as well as data-driven neural net estimators. We evaluate the robustness of the methodology across a diverse range of experimental challenges, including finite-sample noise, tomographic incompleteness, physical model error, and out-of-distribution data. Our results demonstrate that conformalized estimators maintain statistical validity where traditional methods fail, offering a scalable and reliable approach for the verification of modern quantum systems. The best performing variant of our methodology is based on a class-conditional conformal prediction, as this most closely approximates the conditional coverage desired for a true confidence interval.
Quantum machine learning seeks to leverage quantum computers to improve upon classical machine learning algorithms. Currently, robust uncertainty quantification methods remain underdeveloped in the quantum domain, despite the critical need for reliable and trustworthy predictions. Recent work has introduced quantum conformal prediction, a framework that produces prediction sets that are guaranteed to contain the true outcome with a user-specified probability. In this work, we formalise how the time-varying noise inherent in quantum processors can undermine conformal guarantees, even when calibration and test data are exchangeable. To address this challenge, we draw on Adaptive Conformal Inference, a method which maintains validity over time via repeated recalibration. We introduce Adaptive Quantum Conformal Prediction (AQCP), an algorithm which provides asymptotic average coverage guarantees under arbitrary hardware noise conditions. Empirical studies on an IBM quantum processor demonstrate that AQCP achieves the target coverage level and exhibits greater stability than quantum conformal prediction.
Quantum machine learning is a promising programming paradigm for the optimization of quantum algorithms in the current era of noisy intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) computers. A fundamental challenge in quantum machine learning is generalization, as the designer targets performance under testing conditions, while having access only to limited training data. Existing generalization analyses, while identifying important general trends and scaling laws, cannot be used to assign reliable and informative “error bars” to the decisions made by quantum models. In this article, we propose a general methodology that can reliably quantify the uncertainty of quantum models, irrespective of the amount of training data, of the number of shots, of the ansatz, of the training algorithm, and of the presence of quantum hardware noise. The approach, which builds on probabilistic conformal prediction, turns an arbitrary, possibly small, number of shots from a pre-trained quantum model into a set prediction, e.g., an interval, thatprovablycontains the true target with any desired coverage level. Experimental results confirm the theoretical calibration guarantees of the proposed framework, referred to asquantum conformal prediction.
Certification of quantum entanglement under realistic device imperfections is central to quantum communication, cryptography, and quantum networks. Despite the nonclassical nature of entanglement and contextuality, we empirically verify that standard Conformal Prediction(CP)retainsitscoverageguaranteesintheCHSHscenario, astheoreticallyexpected under (context-conditional) exchangeability. We introduce an LHV-Calibrated Anomaly Detection framework achieving an ROC AUC ≈0.96 (Scenario A) and AUC ≈0.83 using only CP-derived features (Scenario B). Validation on IBM quantum hardware (Shw ≈2.53) confirms these results under Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) conditions, relative to an explicit LHV null manifold. Finally, we prove a no-go theorem for product-threshold Conformal Entanglement Witnesses (CEW), explaining their limited power. Our results suggest that, at least in the CHSH setting considered here, CP is best viewed as a robust statistical wrapper around quantum devices, rather than a fragile entanglement witness. To facilitate reproducibility, all code, data, and experiment configurations are available at https://github.com/detasar/QCE.
Machine Learning (ML) has been widely applied across numerous domains due to its ability to automatically identify informative patterns from data for various tasks. The availability of large-scale data and advanced computational power enables the development of sophisticated models and training strategies, leading to state-of-the-art performance, but it also introduces substantial challenges. Quantum Computing (QC), which exploits quantum mechanisms for computation, has attracted growing attention and significant global investment as it may address these challenges. Consequently, Quantum Machine Learning (QML), the integration of these two fields, has received increasing interest, with a notable rise in related studies in recent years. We are motivated to review these existing contributions regarding quantum circuit-based learning models for classical data analysis and highlight the identified potentials and challenges of this technique. Specifically, we focus not only on QML models, both kernel-based and neural network-based, but also on recent explorations of their integration with classical machine learning layers within hybrid frameworks. Moreover, we examine both theoretical analysis and empirical findings to better understand their capabilities, and we also discuss the efforts on noise-resilient and hardware-efficient QML that could enhance its practicality under current hardware limitations. In addition, we cover several emerging paradigms for advanced quantum circuit design and highlight the adaptability of QML across representative application domains. This study aims to provide an overview of the contributions made to bridge quantum computing and machine learning, offering insights and guidance to support its future development and pave the way for broader adoption in the coming years.
Abstract Operator learning enables fast surrogate modelling of high-dimensional dynam-ical systems, but existing approaches face two fundamental limitations: the quadratic cost of dense neural layers and unreliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical settings. We propose Conformalized Quantum Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) Ensembles, a framework that addresses both challenges simultaneously. Using Quantum Orthogonal Neural Networks (QOrthoNNs), we characterize the resource regime in which their established˜︁established˜︁ O(n) hidden-layer running-time scaling improves on the O(n 2) cost of a classical dense layer. To quantify uncertainty, we combine ensemble predictions with split conformal calibration. For a new input–output function pair jointly exchangeable with the calibration pairs, we prove a finite-sample, distribution-free lower bound on the expected fraction of covered query locations. As a secondary proof-of-concept, we explore hybrid classical–quantum architectures and superposed execution to manage ensemble runtime and hardware requirements. Experiments on synthetic operator benchmarks and real-world power-system dynamics show accurate predictions under ideal simulation and empirical coverage near the target under both ideal conditions and selected compact-circuit simulations with depolarizing 1 or device-calibrated composite noise. Together, these results connect resource-aware scalability analysis with finite-sample uncertainty guarantees for quantum operator learning.