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ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD)

Quantum Time-index Models with Reservoir for Time Series Forecasting

Wenbo Qiao, Jiaming Zhao, Peng Zhang

Published Apr 4, 2025• 1 citation
Publisher

Abstract

The time-index models are a class of time series forecasting models that map time-index features to forecasts in continuous space. Compared to the historical-value models, the time-index models can avoid the effect of data sampling frequency and are usually more expressive. However, the vanilla deep time-index model is weak in modeling the high-frequency components of time series and often requires the introduction of many parameters to enhance the modeling capability. Moreover, the time-index model learns only a mapping relationship and ignores the sequence relationship between temporal features, leading to a weak extrapolation capability in the forecast horizon. In this paper, inspired by the ability of quantum implicit neural representations to model the high-frequency components of signals with fewer parameters, we propose Quantum Time-Index Models with Reservoir (QuantumTime). Specifically, we introduce variational quantum circuits to address the challenge of representing high-frequency components in time series. Then, we introduce a reservoir that empowers QuantumTime with powerful extrapolation capabilities by exploiting the rich dynamical properties of reservoir computing. Ultimately, experiments conducted on chaotic datasets and various real-world datasets demonstrate that QuantumTime achieves highly competitive results compared to the state-of-the-art deep time-index model while reducing training parameters by at least 95%. Our approach provides a paradigm for utilizing potential quantum advantage in practical tasks.

DOI
10.1145/3690624.3709228

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The time-index models are a class of time series forecasting models that map time-index features to forecasts in continuous space. Compared to the historical-value models, the time-index models can avoid the effect of data sampling frequency and are usually more expressive. However, the vanilla deep time-index model is weak in modeling the high-frequency components of time series and often requires the introduction of many parameters to enhance the modeling capability. Moreover, the time-index model learns only a mapping relationship and ignores the sequence relationship between temporal features, leading to a weak extrapolation capability in the forecast horizon. In this paper, inspired by the ability of quantum implicit neural representations to model the high-frequency components of signals with fewer parameters, we propose Quantum Time-Index Models with Reservoir (QuantumTime). Specifically, we introduce variational quantum circuits to address the challenge of representing high-frequency components in time series. Then, we introduce a reservoir that empowers QuantumTime with powerful extrapolation capabilities by exploiting the rich dynamical properties of reservoir computing. Ultimately, experiments conducted on chaotic datasets and various real-world datasets demonstrate that QuantumTime achieves highly competitive results compared to the state-of-the-art deep time-index model while reducing training parameters by at least 95%. Our approach provides a paradigm for utilizing potential quantum advantage in practical tasks.
This paper explores the application of quantum reservoir computing (QRC) to time-series forecasting. Traditional reservoir computing methods, while effective for certain time-series, often face limitations when dealing with complex, high-dimensional data. This research proposes a novel approach utilizing a quantum system, such as a driven oscillator, as the reservoir, capitalizing on the inherent quantum properties for enhanced temporal processing. The core idea involves mapping the input time series onto the quantum reservoir, allowing the reservoir's quantum state to evolve dynamically. A linear readout layer is then trained to predict future values based on the evolved state. We investigate the potential advantages of QRC, specifically its ability to capture non-linear relationships and high-dimensional correlations within the time series data. The theoretical framework is presented, outlining the key components and the training methodology. Simulation results (described in detail below) demonstrate the feasibility and potential performance gains of QRC compared to classical reservoir computing. This research contributes to the growing field of quantum computing applied to time-series analysis.
Reservoir computing (RC) has demonstrated significant promise in time series forecasting, particularly for chaotic systems. However, a critical limitation of traditional RC approaches is their vulnerability to non-Gaussian noise, a common characteristic of real-world time series data. This paper proposes a novel framework, Quantum Reservoir Computing (QRC), designed to address this challenge. QRC utilizes a quantum reservoir – a randomly initialized quantum circuit – to leverage the inherent noise robustness of quantum mechanics, specifically quantum entanglement and superposition. The quantum reservoir is coupled with a variational quantum circuit for output mapping. We demonstrate that this approach significantly improves forecasting accuracy when dealing with non-Gaussian noise, offering a pathway to more reliable RC implementations. The core claim of this work is that reservoir computing struggles with non-Gaussian noise, which is prevalent in many time series datasets. The core mechanism involves extending reservoir computing using a quantum reservoir – a randomly initialized quantum circuit – that is inherently robust to non-Gaussian noise due to quantum entanglement and superposition, combined with a variational quantum circuit for output mapping. The methodology incorporates a mapping function to translate quantum states into time series predictions, and the variational quantum circuit is trained to minimize the error between predicted and actual time series values. We explore the theoretical underpinnings of this method and discuss its potential for various time series forecasting applications.
Time series forecasting is a critical problem with applications in various fields, such as finance, energy, and environmental science. While classical machine learning methods have shown significant progress in this domain, the advent of quantum machine learning introduces a new perspective to address the complexities of time series prediction. In this research, we propose a novel Quantum Neural Network (QNN) approach for time series forecasting, leveraging the unique capabilities of quantum computing to capture intricate temporal dependencies and exploit quantum parallelism. By encoding time series data into quantum states and designing quantum circuits for processing, the QNN aims to achieve improved predictive accuracy compared to classical neural networks. Through extensive experiments on diverse time series datasets, we demonstrate the potential of our QNN framework and discuss the future prospects of quantum-powered time series prediction in real-world applications.
Physical reservoir computing provides a powerful machine learning paradigm that exploits nonlinear physical dynamics for efficient information processing. By incorporating quantum effects, quantum reservoir computing offers superior potential for machine learning applications, as quantum dynamics are exponentially costly to simulate classically. Here, we present a novel quantum reservoir computing approach based on correlated quantum spin systems, exploiting natural quantum many-body interactions to generate reservoir dynamics, thereby circumventing the practical challenges of deep quantum circuits. Our experimental implementation supports nontrivial quantum entanglement and exhibits sufficient dynamical complexity for high-performance machine learning. We achieve state-of-the-art performance in experiments on standard time-series benchmarks, reducing prediction error by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude compared to previous quantum reservoir experiments. In long-term weather forecasting, our 9-spin quantum reservoir delivers greater prediction accuracy than classical reservoirs with thousands of nodes. This represents the first experimental demonstration of quantum machine learning outperforming large-scale classical models on real-world tasks.
Quantum reservoir computing has emerged as a promising paradigm for harnessing quantum systems to process temporal data efficiently by bypassing the costly training of gradient-based learning methods. Here, we demonstrate the capability of this approach to predict and characterize chaotic dynamics in discrete nonlinear maps, exemplified through the logistic and Hénon maps. While achieving excellent predictive accuracy, we also demonstrate the optimization of training hyperparameters of the quantum reservoir based on the properties of the underlying map, thus paving the way for efficient forecasting with other discrete and continuous time-series data. Using closed-loop prediction of distant future steps, our protocol discriminates between chaotic and nonchaotic phases without prior knowledge of the underlying map or the nature of the time series. Furthermore, the framework exhibits robustness against decoherence when trained and shows insensitivity to reservoir Hamiltonian variations as well as robustness to finite-sampling error. These results highlight quantum reservoir computing as a scalable and noise-resilient tool for modeling complex dynamical systems, with immediate applicability in near-term quantum hardware.
Forecasting dynamical systems is of importance to numerous real-world applications. Typically, these are obtained using first-principles-based models such as through the use of differential equations. When these equations are unknown, non-intrusive techniques must be utilized to build predictive models from data alone. Machine learning (ML) methods have recently been used for such tasks with the added advantage of significant reductions in time-to-solution for predictions during deployment. However, many state-of-the-art ML-based methods for forecasting rely on neural networks, which are expensive to train and require large amounts of memory. In this work, we propose a quantum mechanics inspired ML strategy for forecasting nonlinear dynamical systems that results in reduced training time and memory requirements. This approach, denoted the quantum reservoir computing technique (QRC), is a hybrid quantum-classical framework employing an ensemble of interconnected small quantum systems via classical linear feedback connections. By mapping the dynamical state to a suitable quantum representation amenable to unitary operations, QRC is able to predict complex nonlinear dynamical systems in a stable and accurate manner. We demonstrate the efficacy of this framework through benchmark forecasts of the NOAA Optimal Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature dataset and compare the performance of QRC to other ML methods.