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New economic windows

Quantum Decision Theory and Complexity Modelling in Economics and Public Policy

Anirban Chakraborti, Emmanuel Haven, Sudip Patra, Naresh Singh

Published Jan 1, 2023• 5 citations
Publisher
DOI
10.1007/978-3-031-38833-0

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This study introduces the Quantum Becker Model (QBM), a novel quantum-classical hybrid framework that integrates rational choice theory with parameterized quantum neural networks. We created this model to better capture the complex, nonlinear cognitive dynamics that support corrupt decision-making in Indonesia, which conventional economic modeling approaches frequently fail to address. By representing individual choices as evolving qubit states modulated through rotation gates, the QBM naturally accounts for psychological superposition and abrupt behavioral shifts. We calibrated the model using empirical Indonesian data, including the 2024 Anti-Corruption Behavior Index (IPAK = 3.85), low detection probabilities, and sentencing records from 1,768 court decisions. Simulations revealed a near-total collapse of the cognitive state into the corrupt basis (offense probability 99.43 %) under current enforcement conditions. Analysis of the three-dimensional social loss landscape showed that increases in punishment severity yield little deterrence when the probability of apprehension remains low. Optimal policy configurations need significant improvements in detection capabilities rather than relying solely on harsher penalties. The QBM therefore provides policymakers with a robust computational tool for evaluating policy trade-offs and designing more effective, evidence-based anti-corruption strategies. Using quantum machine learning, law and economics, and computational public policy analysis, the proposed approach establishes a novel interdisciplinary connection. Its findings will contribute to quantum economics modeling theory as well as provide practical insights into designing more effective anti-corruption policies based on evidence.
Since its emergence in the 1970s, behavioral economics has integrated psychological insights into economics—drawing on Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory, Thaler's psychological accounting and boost theory, and Schiller's behavioral finance—thereby dismantling the myth of the "homo economicus" and revealing systematic cognitive biases inherent to human decision-making. However, classical behavioral economics has been constructed from a collection of fragmented "effects" and "biases," lacking a unified, axiomatic mathematical framework; moreover, the frequent practice among researchers to selectively apply individual effects has undermined the discipline's predictive power and theoretical coherence. This book is the first academic monograph in the world to systematically expound on quantum behavioral economics—a new paradigm devised specifically to overcome this fundamental dilemma. It introduces concepts such as Hilbert spaces, state vectors, superposition, entanglement, measurement collapse, quantum probability, interference effects, unitary evolution, decoherence, non-commutative observables, and quantum phase transitions into the foundational bedrock of behavioral economics: that preferences and beliefs coexist in a superposition prior to decision-making; that decision-making consists of constructing measurements to extract definite preferences via measurement collapse; and that the beliefs and behaviors of individuals are entangled, exhibiting non-local quantum correlations. Furthermore, it posits that the sequence in which information is presented and the framing effects are intrinsic properties of quantum decision-making—rather than mere "biases." This book comprises six parts and thirty chapters: Part I, "Paradigm Revolution," establishes the philosophical foundations, the quantum subject hypothesis, and the analytical framework; Part II develops quantum probabilistic judgments, quantum heuristics, quantum prospect theory, quantum decision-making under uncertainty, and quantum framing effects; Part III explores quantum preferences, quantum utility, quantum choice theory, quantum endowment effects and loss aversion, as well as the current state of quantum research and default effects; Part IV extends the scope to quantum social preferences, quantum altruism, quantum trust and cooperation, quantum game theory, and quantum public goods games; Part V examines quantum intertemporal choice, quantum hyperbolic discounting, quantum self-control, quantum procrastination and addiction, and quantum habit formation and behavioral change across temporal dimensions; Part VI demonstrates the application of framing in finance, markets, public policy, and health domains, while offering insights into the future of this discipline. This work pursues three overarching objectives: theoretical unification and depth, originality and authority, and seamless readability. It is intended for graduate students, faculty, and researchers in behavioral economics, decision science, psychology, and finance, as well as for public policy makers and practitioners in financial markets to provide new paradigm-based analytical tools.
In recent years, quantum economics has emerged as a revolutionary discipline that applies the fundamental principles of quantum physics to offer a new perspective on the uncertainty and complexity inherent in modern economic systems. Quantum cognition plays a fundamental role in this framework, explaining how individuals process information and make decisions in contexts of ambiguity and uncertainty. Using quantum mechanisms such as the superposition of mental states, interference, and entanglement, quantum cognition models complex behavioral phenomena that are inexplicable by classical decision theory, such as the effects of presentation order and cognitive paradoxes. This article examines the intersection between quantum economics, quantum cognition, decision-making, and sustainability in financial environments through a systematic review following the PRISMA methodology and a bibliometric analysis. Recent advances in artificial intelligence and quantum computing are driving the practical application of these approaches, improving the management of uncertainty in sectors such as renewable energy and sustainable resource management. The results show that quantum economics is a promising framework for the design of policies and strategies aimed at achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).