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Radiotekhnika

Risk estimation methodology in the post-quantum period

Maryna V. Yesina, Олександр Володимирович Потій, Yu.I. Gorbenko, Volodymyr Ponomar

Published Jun 24, 2022• 1 citation
Publisher

Abstract

The world is in the process of intensive creation and application of quantum technologies. On May 4, 2022, the President of the United States signed the «National Security Memorandum on Promoting United States Leadership in Quantum Computing While Mitigating Risks to Vulnerable Cryptographic Systems». Therefore, advancing leadership is an important challenge in quantum computing in general, while reducing risks to vulnerable cryptographic systems. Accordingly, standardized scientific and methodological support for risk assessment should be justified, accepted and applied at the international and national levels when quantum computing is used in general and especially when quantum computing is used in cryptology. The purpose of the work is to substantiate and develop a risk assessment methodology for quantum computing used in cryptology in the so-called “post-quantum period”. With this aim in view the following components were taken into account: the use of methods that have not yet arisen to combat cybersecurity threats; determination of the essence of the quantum risk assessment methodology; identification and documentation of information assets and their current cryptographic protection; research on the state of quantum computers and quantum-safe cryptography. Quantum risk assessment is considered, an ideal approach for identifying and prioritizing threats and vulnerabilities, as well as laying the foundation for the reliable and cost-effective development of systems so that they are resistant to quantum attacks. Quantum risk assessment provides organizations with the knowledge necessary to understand the extent of their quantum cyber risk and the terms in which quantum threats can arise. This will provide the organization with a basis for proactively addressing quantum risks, building a path to a quantum safe state, and implementing and validating quantum safe solutions.

DOI
10.30837/rt.2022.2.209.01

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The world is in the process of intensive creation and application of quantum technologies. On May 4, 2022, the President of the United States signed the «National Security Memorandum on Promoting United States Leadership in Quantum Computing While Mitigating Risks to Vulnerable Cryptographic Systems». Therefore, advancing leadership is an important challenge in quantum computing in general, while reducing risks to vulnerable cryptographic systems. Accordingly, standardized scientific and methodological support for risk assessment should be justified, accepted and applied at the international and national levels when quantum computing is used in general and especially when quantum computing is used in cryptology. The purpose of the work is to substantiate and develop a risk assessment methodology for quantum computing used in cryptology in the so-called “post-quantum period”. With this aim in view the following components were taken into account: the use of methods that have not yet arisen to combat cybersecurity threats; determination of the essence of the quantum risk assessment methodology; identification and documentation of information assets and their current cryptographic protection; research on the state of quantum computers and quantum-safe cryptography. Quantum risk assessment is considered, an ideal approach for identifying and prioritizing threats and vulnerabilities, as well as laying the foundation for the reliable and cost-effective development of systems so that they are resistant to quantum attacks. Quantum risk assessment provides organizations with the knowledge necessary to understand the extent of their quantum cyber risk and the terms in which quantum threats can arise. This will provide the organization with a basis for proactively addressing quantum risks, building a path to a quantum safe state, and implementing and validating quantum safe solutions.
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Quantum computing, based on the principles of quantum mechanics, is rapidly gaining momentum as a promising field of information technology.However, with the growing capabilities of quantum computing comes a new level of cybersecurity.Quantum-secure cryptography is emerging as a response to the potential threats posed by quantum computers to traditional cryptographic methods.The main goal of quantum-secure cryptography is to ensure the security of data in information systems, as quantum computing becomes more and more accessible.In this study, we thoroughly studied the essence of quantum-secure cryptography, its fundamental principles and applications.We have explored the advantages and limitations of this new cryptographic paradigm and discussed the potential challenges that arise in the context of its implementation.In addition, we analyzed the current state of research in the field of quantum-secure cryptography and highlighted the prospects for further development of this intriguing technology.We have researched potential threats and possible ways to solve them.Additionally, we reviewed a quantum risk assessment methodology that helps identify and manage threats in the context of quantum security.Finally, we trace existing examples and recent developments in the field of quantum-secure cryptography, revealing their potential to improve information security in the future.Overall, the research allows for a better understanding of the importance and prospects of quantum-secure cryptography in today's digital world.
The paper proposes strategic steps that organizations can take to future-proof their security architecture against quantum threats for the security of data integrity and confidentiality in the post-quantum era. it is a very threat that quantum computing is advancing too fast, and the classical cryptographic systems will be in danger. Therefore, we need to modify the methods of cryptography in Quantum- Safe Cryptography. In this paper, we focus on exposing the vulnerabilities of existing public-key cryptosystems faced with quantum attacks and the direction of the post-quantum cryptographic (PQC) algorithm in securing the underlain infrastructure. The paper discusses ongoing efforts to standardize cryptosystems led by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). It overviews several quantum-resistant cryptographic techniques: lattice-based, hash-based, and code-based examples. Moreover, the paper also outlines difficulties in implementing quantum-safe cryptography solutions into currently in-place cybersecurity frameworks, especially in the finance, healthcare, and critical infrastructure industries.
The paper proposes strategic steps that organizations can take to future-proof their security architecture against quantum threats for the security of data integrity and confidentiality in the post-quantum era. it is a very threat that quantum computing is advancing too fast, and the classical cryptographic systems will be in danger. Therefore, we need to modify the methods of cryptography in Quantum-Safe Cryptography. In this paper, we focus on exposing the vulnerabilities of existing public-key cryptosystems faced with quantum attacks and the direction of the post-quantum cryptographic (PQC) algorithm in securing the underlain infrastructure. The paper discusses ongoing efforts to standardize cryptosystems led by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). It overviews several quantum-resistant cryptographic techniques: lattice-based, hash-based, and code-based examples. Moreover, the paper also outlines difficulties in implementing quantum-safe cryptography solutions into currently in-place cybersecurity frameworks, especially in the finance, healthcare, and critical infrastructure industries.
The anticipated development of cryptographically relevant quantum computing presents a strategic challenge to governments because contemporary public-sector information systems depend extensively on cryptographic mechanisms for confidentiality, authentication, integrity, and secure communication. The principal difficulty is not limited to replacing existing cryptographic algorithms; rather, it concerns the coordinated transformation of national information infrastructures, institutional policies, data-protection practices, procurement procedures, and long-term security architectures. This research and review article develops a policy-oriented framework for quantum-safe cybersecurity in government environments. The study adopts a conceptual methodology that synthesizes the supplied literature on predictive modeling, statistical decision-making, machine learning, and quantum-resistant national-security policy. Although several supplied studies originate in pharmaceutical stability prediction rather than cybersecurity, their methodological emphasis on prediction, modeling, optimization, and risk-oriented decision processes provides transferable analytical foundations for constructing migration and prioritization mechanisms. The proposed framework integrates cryptographic inventory, risk classification, data sensitivity assessment, migration prioritization, algorithm-agility requirements, governance controls, validation mechanisms, and continuous monitoring. The analysis indicates that quantum-safe transformation should be treated as a national digital-resilience program rather than as an isolated cryptographic upgrade. The paper further identifies implementation challenges involving legacy systems, interoperability, institutional coordination, resource allocation, and uncertainty concerning future quantum capabilities. The resulting framework provides a structured basis for government agencies to prioritize critical assets, reduce exposure to future cryptographic compromise, and establish adaptive cybersecurity governance.