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RAND Corporation eBooks

Commercial and Military Applications and Timelines for Quantum Technology

Parker, Edward

Published Jan 1, 2021• 13 citations
Publisher

Abstract

This report provides an overview of the current state of quantum technology and its potential commercial and military applications, such as data encryption and extremely precise sensors. The author discusses each of the three major categories of quantum technology: quantum sensing, quantum communication, and quantum computing.
DOI
10.7249/rra1482-4

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Quantum technologies result from the use of the laws of modern physics in increasingly sophisticated devices, promising enormous advances in computing, communication, and sensing, for both civilian and military use. As a consequence of technological progress that has miniaturized instrumentation down to atomic scales, we are witnessing the nanoscale manipulation of physical systems using intrinsic properties of quantum systems, such as entanglement. Quantum sensors are able to go beyond classical detection limits. Quantum communication offers a security advantage over classical communication. Quantum computing enables the solution of problems considered impossible to solve with classical computers. These technologies emerge as a result of advances in science and engineering, enabling the manipulation of systems at the atomic level. In this article we briefly present the fundamental concepts of quantum mechanics, the main examples of quantum technologies in sensing, communication, and computing. We show military applications and conclude by presenting the challenges and opportunities.
In recent years, breakthroughs in our understanding of the physical and relational properties of the subatomic universe have coincided with major increases in state funding and commercial development of quantum science and technology. Initially distinguished by high levels of international scientific cooperation, a ‘quantum race’ is heating up across multiple sectors and between major powers, who recognise that technological prowess will be a key determinant of geostrategic, as well as economic supremacy in the 21st century. Quantum is seen as a critical emerging technology in this rivalry, with the potential for full-spectrum applications in warfare, including quantum computers that enhance the capabilities of AI and machine learning, improve the performance of lethal autonomous weapons systems and increase the capacity for analysing large datasets; quantum algorithms that break classical encryption while quantum networks provide completely secure communications; and quantum sensors that provide more sensitive detection, measurement and control of the physical environment. In a densely networked, information-saturated battlespace requiring accelerated decision-making, quantum computers, communications, control and artificial intelligence (QC3AI) has the potential to further reduce the human element in future warfare.
Abstract Quantum technology is an emergent and potentially disruptive discipline, with the ability to affect many human activities. Quantum technologies are dual-use technologies, and as such are of interest to the defence and security industry and military and governmental actors. This report reviews and maps the possible quantum technology military applications, serving as an entry point for international peace and security assessment, ethics research, military and governmental policy, strategy and decision making. Quantum technologies for military applications introduce new capabilities, improving effectiveness and increasing precision, thus leading to ‘quantum warfare’, wherein new military strategies, doctrines, policies and ethics should be established. This report provides a basic overview of quantum technologies under development, also estimating the expected time scale of delivery or the utilisation impact. Particular military applications of quantum technology are described for various warfare domains (e.g. land, air, space, electronic, cyber and underwater warfare and ISTAR—intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance), and related issues and challenges are articulated.
Quantum technology is an emergent area with the potential to be disruptive and ability to affect many human activities. Quantum technologies are dual-use technologies, and as such, they are the subject of interest for the defence and security industry and military and governmental actors. This report aims to review and map the possible quantum technology military applications to serve as the entry point for international peace and international security assessment, ethics research or military and governmental policy, strategy and decision making. Quantum technologies for military applications, introducing new capabilities, increasing effectiveness and improving precision lead to 'quantum warfare', wherein new military strategies, doctrines, policies and ethics should be established. This report provides a basic overview of quantum technologies under development where the expected time scale of delivery or utilisation impact are estimated. The particular applications of quantum technology for the military are described for various warfare domains (e.g., cyber, space, electronic, underwater warfare, or intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance), and related issues and challenges are articulated.